Professor Remi Aiyede, head of Department of Political Science, speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on what Nigerians should expect in 2022, especially as it relates to politics, among other issues.
It is the New Year. But most of the political issues that gained prominence last year are yet to be effectively addressed. As things stand now, what are some of the issues Nigerians should watch out for this year?
Yes, you know this year is going to be loaded with many political activities. The elections will be in the first quarter of 2023 and there are a number of bye-elections that will be conducted this year. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has listed quite a number of them, about 50 that will take place. That means this year is going to witness great political activities. In fact, the outcome of the 2023 elections will be determined by the preparations that will be made this year. So the year, 2022, is a year that Nigerians should be alert and awake to their civic responsibilities if they want to see improvements in the quality of their governance after the 2023 elections.
The second important point that we also need to emphasise is that the carryover of security problems from 2020 into 2021 and their aggravations evidenced by the increase in the issues of banditry and kidnapping of school children and travellers. This is one key problem that we were unable to address and solve in 2021. And we must not allow it to fester this year, especially given the political tension that will grip the country this year, because insecurity will mar the integrity and credibility of the political and electoral process. If we don’t deal with the security challenges, we will have serious problems with our politics this year.
Interestingly in 2021, the government carried out quite a number of initiatives as part of the strategies to address the security crisis. But the government has been very slow in implementing its plans. In February, 2021, the government set up a committee to facilitate military reforms so that they can work better in addressing the issues of banditry, terrorism and kidnapping by cooperating with other security agencies. But by September, 2021, the government again set up another committee to look at the reports that were submitted by the previous committee. But it was just in December, 2021 that the initial committee was able to set up its report, which means that the government has been very slow in executing its plans to reform and reposition the military in a bid to tackle the security problem. We just hope that this year, the government will expedite actions on the various reports the committee it set up have submitted.
In fact, about 72 recommendations have been made with regards to how to get an audit of the entire military formations, their capacity and their needs as well as how to improve on the use of technology for security and intelligence gathering. As it stands now, if the government did not take very drastic actions in the first quarter of this year, we will be facing a very serious problem later in the year. So, I think Nigerians should put pressure on the government to do more in the area of security by accelerating actions in executing the recommendations that have been submitted including the one that came from the panel set up on the 2020 EndSARS protests.
Remember the reports only came out in the twilight of 2021 and that is to show you how slow the government has been in taking concrete steps to tackle the issue of security. It is really a tragedy that a government that promised to prioritise security in 2015 could have been this slow in making radical changes and reforms expected of it.
Even look at the replacements of the service chiefs. The old ones were there for many years and people were shouting and complaining that the chiefs should be removed. But it took the government so long to replace them. But even after it replaced them, it has not carry out the needed military reforms to ensure that the force are more effective to combat terrorism and banditry than before. Remember that the government also disbanded the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). But what has it done afterwards to ensure that the group that replaced SARSs is well trained? It has done nothing, even though the government made all kinds of promises.
So I believe this is one area Nigerians must pressurise the government, because we cannot continue to live in this very insecure environment. Don’t forget that the security crisis also has very big implications for food security, inflation, hunger and agricultural production. So we really need to call on the government to be more purposeful in addressing the challenges.
We cannot afford to allow them to play down the importance of the problem, because the temptation to do this is very high. This is because as I have said, this year is going to be a high political season and because of this, there will be a hive of political activities. As you know, the All Progressives Congress (APC) convention has been postponed till this year and the primaries of the entire political parties will also be carried out this year. So there are really a lot of things that can arrest the government’s attention and distract them from the focus of governance. So Nigerians must not allow this to happen, because we will be the one to suffer the consequences of the government’s slow-paced moves and failures regarding security.
And then, the government has announced what it called the National Development Plan for the year 2021 to 2025. And we also know that this is not the first time that they are coming up with such plans. The latest plan is supposed to be part of the one they called the National Sustainability Plan that took us out of the recession that came because of the COVID-19 prevalence in 2020.
In 2021, the government was not able to position the economy well in a bid to improve productivity and ensure that the much needed increase in employment opportunities is achieved. So this year, the government must also look into this, because it likewise has serious implications for politics. There is really a lot we want the government to focus on this year. But the real fear is that the government may be distracted by the 2022 political timetable which is well loaded with activities.
As I have said, the first quarter of the year should be concentrated on security inspection reforms. So that before political activities start brewing up in the middle of this year, we would have got certain results from the implementations of some of the recommended reform strategies.
Still on the issue of security, in the last quarter of 2021, the court pronounced the rampaging bandits as terrorists. But up till now, the presidency has refused to publicly affirm the pronouncement. Could this have been one of the factors emboldening the attackers to further carry out their heinous acts?
I don’t think so, because I personally do not believe in name-calling, because they don’t translate into concrete actions. In fact, the name should come out of the way the government behaves. If the government has taken very radical steps in addressing the security problems and has dealt with them in very strong terms, we will not tell anyone that the government is shielding the bandits as if they are supporting their acts. When Obasanjo was in power and went to places that terrorists were, he didn’t call them any name before taking the decisive actions he took to crush them.
I think what we really need is for the government to act. The fact remains that the government can publicly say it has accepted the court pronouncement and at the end of the year not taking any action to deal with the bandits. So, for me, I will not place much attention on whether they declare somebody a terrorist or not, because I believe that how the government handles the situation will tell us how it is taking it. For instance, if the government treats the bandits and kidnappers with kid gloves, then, of course, they are friends to the kidnappers and bandits. But if the government comes heavy-handedly on them and with the right intelligence gets results, whether they call them terrorists or not, we will believe that the government is working greatly in addressing the problem. Did successive governments not pronounce the Boko Haram a terrorist group for many years? But did this stop them from carrying out further attacks? Obviously no. It is actually the actions that are taken to curtail the activities of the groups that should interest us. Name-calling is just a mere political slogan or tool. Sometimes it matters; sometimes, it does not.
And talking about the new economic plan that the government has brought forward, what do you think threatens the success of the past ones it came up with?
I think what has actually happened was that when this government came in, unlike the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), it did not have comprehensive plans that underpinned its campaign promises. Apart from the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, which it brought out in the aftermath of the global economic meltdown, the government did not really have any concrete programme. It was a major problem when compared to the PDP administration which had the vision 2020 and several other economic plans which gave direction and purpose to the country’s economy then.
So it is a good thing that the current government is now coming up with plans that focus concretely on issues and tie its various programmes together. But the incumbent government is not the type that is used to taking a very systematic approach to issues. It is obviously not a proactive one as it has often lagged behind when addressing the challenges facing the country. I think that is really where our problem is. But if the government has proposed a plan to run from 2021 till 2025, then, we can only hope that it will be able to carry out part of the plans before it leaves office in 2023.
But like I said, the government has not proven to be the type that will come up with a plan and take a systematic approach to execute it. I think the only positive thing on the scorecard of the government has been the delivery of infrastructural projects like the railway lines, the second Niger Bridge and others that it has been using to sell its administration. Otherwise, it is a government that has promised to provide welfare and all kinds of intervention programmes for the poor and unemployed youths, but whose impact has not been far-reaching. The social Intervention programme, the cash-transfer programme, and the rest have not been very comprehensive and impactful in creating jobs and reducing the high level of poverty and starvation in the country. And that is why you see that under this government, poverty and inequality have risen. So there is a lot that still needs to be done this year. The plans are expected to tie the entire programmes and promises of the government together and ensure that the resources within the state are evenly distributed so as to translate into growth and welfare for the ordinary Nigerian.
One of the boiling issues that will be carried over from 2021 is the Electoral Amendment Bill. As President Buhari has returned the bill back to the National Assembly and received both commendations and criticisms from different parts of the country for withholding his assent, what option do you think is available for the lawmakers now?
I think the NASS promised to look at the presidential argument on the bill when they return on January 20, which is quite a long recess. But my recommendation will be that if the lawmakers think that the direct primary clause is not going to be resolved quickly, they should just remove the clause and send the bill back to the president for assent. They can then send an amendment concerning that part of the bill later on, because we have experienced situations like this with the Petroleum Industry bill (PIB) and the 46 amendments that got stuck at the twilight of the Jonathan administration and didn’t see the light of day, because of some disagreement between the president and the NASS then. I think the lawmakers will end up throwing the baby away with the bath water if they don’t treat the bill rightly. So, they should remove the clause and give themselves time to deliberate on it, while they send the remaining part of the bill to the president for assent, because there are robust provisions in the amendment bill that will need to be in place to kick-start the electoral process and political season for this year. The NASS can later decide whether they want to over-turn that clause through a two-thirds, which they may never get or simply do without the clause. This is my advice to the NASS, but holding on to the bill as if it is its entire provisions that is the problem will be penny wise and pound foolish.
But do you really believe the direct primary clause will return democracy and the right to choose political representatives back to the people as claimed by the lawmakers?
I think it is very clear that the lawmakers are worried and concerned by their relative power in comparison to that of the governors when it comes to having influence within the political parties. The legislators have tried over the years to see how they can strengthen their own influence within the political parties.
The first thing they did over the years was to make all members of the legislative arm from the local government to the state and federal level automatic delegates under the delegates system of political parties’ primaries. But I think despite all the efforts, the lawmakers have not succeeded over the years in having the kinds of influence they want to have within the parties. That is why they are now thinking that if they introduce the direct primary, the powers of the governors will be mitigated. If you really read between the lines and observe their actions on the electoral bill, you will see that this has actually been their motive.
But as expected, the governors have opposed the direct primary system, because it will cost them more money as they will need a greater war chest to be able to exercise the kind of influence they have been having within the parties over the years. But even if the governors will have to spend more money, it is only very few legislators that will be able to withstand them at the primaries even under the direct primary system. So ultimately, I think the goal of the legislators will still not be achieved even under the direct primary they are clamouring for. I think it will only further monitise our political system. So, I think it is better to allow the political parties to determine what kind of primaries they want to conduct. And as the president has said, the direct system will create greater challenges for INEC and the security agencies, because they also have to be on ground as direct primary is more like the general election, which involves elaborate processes.
One of the economic decisions the government is planning to implement this year is to remove the fuel subsidy and increase the electricity tariff. But do you think the N5,000 palliatives the government claimed it will give Nigerians will cushion the hardship and pains that removing the subsidy will inflict on the country?
I don’t think so. As you know, the labour unions are already preparing for war against those two policies. If you look at the level of inflation and hunger in the country, you will see that the decision is really uncalled for. At some points, the government said it will not remove the subsidy, at another time, it said it will. I really don’t know why this government is playing hide and seek game with Nigerians. Increasing the cost of fuel and electricity tariff now is not the way to go, because the direct consequences it will have on the cost of living will be terrible.
In the past five years or more, there has been no review in the salaries structure and payment of workers both at the state and federal levels. More worrisome, the value of a dollar in relation to our naira has drastically gone up and we do a lot of importations in this country. So, it wasn’t surprising that Nigeria was rated as the world poverty capital in 2018.
Even though the government has promised to give palliatives to cushion the effects of the subsidy removal, what has happened to the palliative initiative for the COVID-19? How many people have benefited from the cash-transfer the government said it has been doing? How many people have got out of poverty as a result of those interventions? As this year is a political season, the government will only use the palliatives to buy votes for 2023. It is very obvious where they are going. Experience has not shown that the governments past interventions have been able to truly target and impact the poor.
So I think the two policies will only worsen the condition of the common man. I think the government should look elsewhere in terms of raising funds. Several calls have been raised concerning diversification of the economy and I think it is high time the government considered making the move.
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