A return to the turf…

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On June 9, 2019, I suspended this column with the article titled: “As I take a bow…” and announced my decision to join the governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde, as the Chief Press Secretary. Four years have passed and I am back home like the proverbial English football, that is not shy of coming ‘home.’ In the four years, I joined others to render service. It is always a dish that comes with mixed grills. You are liked and disliked, understood and misunderstood. As the Yoruba would say, Orisirisi obe laari lojo iku erin- all manners of knives would surface once an elephant is found dead. But as I’ve stated elsewhere, much of what transpired would remain in the belly of time for a while. Right now, it’s back to the beat.

Oil theft: Don’t wave off Asari Dokubo

In June, a former Niger Delta militant and agitator, Mujahid Asari Dokubo tore into what looked like a resting bird’s nest as he raised fundamental allegations against the military-the Army and the Nigerian Navy. In well-publicised comments, Dokubo accused the military of complicity in the oil theft saga that had led to the loss of billions in revenue by the Nigerian nation. We have been told that an estimated 500,000 barrels of crude were being lost daily between 2017 and now due to the activities of oil thieves. The trend had led to Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC quota and meet up the foreign exchange demands of its citizens. That in turn has led to persistent loss in value of the nation’s currency. From around N200 to the US Dollar in 2015, we have seen the Naira plummet in value to above N700 to one US dollar.

Dokubo had told State House correspondents that “The military is at the centre of oil theft, and we have to make this very clear to the Nigerian public that 99 per cent of oil theft can be traced to the Nigerian military, the Army and the Navy especially.”

He added: “I also want to say that oil theft is encouraged by the military. The Army and the Navy intimidate the (Nigeria Security and) Civil Defence (Corps) who are by status the people who are supposed to guard these pipelines. They receive a lot of money from NNPCL and the IOCs and just across the corner, you will see a houseboat.

“A few meters from the Houseboat, you will see an oil bunkering refinery tapping directly from oil well ends. It is very pathetic now. What is happening in the Niger Delta in the past eight years was unprecedented in the history of oil production anywhere in the world.”

Expectedly, the Nigerian Army and the Navy responded through their spokesmen and challenged Dokubo to name those he said are responsible for 99 percent of oil theft. Some commentators on this matter have blamed Dokubo for going too far and attempting to denigrate the military. I don’t see it in that light. The elders in my Yorubaland would say when the lice still remain in your cloth, your fingernails would remain blood-soaked. If the military had terminated the oil theft, Dokubu won’t have anything to accuse them of. To me, Dokubo appears to stand on a higher moral ground here.

The issue between Dokubo and the military is quite simple to judge. The owner of the house travels a lot and usually leaves the key to the apartment with the security man. But each time he returns, he meets the kitchen doors intact but the pot of soup is half empty. If the security man does not carry the blame, who else? Are we then to blame the family head, who always travels with every member of his family?

And the case against the military is not helped by statistics coming from the monitors of the extractive industry. The Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) in a report on oil theft claimed that Nigeria lost 619.7 million barrels of crude oil valued at N16.25tn as a result of oil theft between 2009 and 2020. Other independent reports indicated that oil theft has been ravaging Nigeria’s economy for years.

Though the nation’s average crude oil production was said to stand at an average of N1.9 million barrels per day between 2002 and 2023, a breakdown had shown that Nigeria has been unable to meet its OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels per day for a long time now. Early in 2023, crude production, which recorded an all-time low of 1,015,000 barrels per day in September 2022, went up marginally to stand at 1,308 million barrels per day in January and 1,380 million barrels per day in February. That was still a far cry from the 1.8 million barrels per day OPEC quota.

In the heat of militancy, we can all blame the militants in the Niger Delta. And it was in a bid to snuff life out of the danger they constitute to the economy that then President Umaru Yar’Adua agreed to float the Amnesty policy. After years of the Amnesty regime, why are we recording unexpected crude losses to oil theft? Who really is the thief?

Some theorists will tell you the blame should be at the doorsteps of illegal local refineries, I beg to disagree. While this team of economic bandits would share less than a fraction of the blame, owners of the big vessels, some of which will take days to load, are the real holders of the big dagger behind the back of our economy. Who should arrest them? The Army, the Navy, and Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA). Why are they not making the arrests? They do, but certainly, their best in that regard are at best miniature.

The government has tried to go around the problem by approving pipeline protection contracts for private individuals. That can largely deal with the onshore challenge of oil theft. Much of the danger happens in the deep waters and that is the territory the Army, the Navy, and NIMASA should superintend.

If the military has any complaint, let them take such to the Commander-in-Chief. But let them first justify the faith the country vests in them by cutting oil theft down to its barest minimum.

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