2027: Again, the three-horse race

As the 2027 presidential election, fixed for Saturday, January 16, 2027, draws closer, Nigeria’s political pendulum appears to be tilting toward another three-horse race. In this piece, Muideen Olaniyi examines the chances and implications of the three major presidential candidates who were also the main actors in the 2023 contest.

At the weekend, the coast became clear that the 2027 presidential election might be another three-horse race featuring incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

The trio of Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi again emerged candidates of their various political parties after primary elections and consensus arrangements organised to beat the deadline set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) ahead of the 2027 general elections.

In 2023, Atiku and Obi ran against Tinubu on different political platforms – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), respectively. This time around, they are challenging the incumbent president on the platforms of ADC and NDC.

Although the contest will also have other contenders including Seyi Makinde of Allied People’s Movement (APM), Donald Duke of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Adewole Adebayo of Social Democratic Party (SDP), Omoyele Sowore of African Action Congress (AAC), Anita Zugwai-Chukwu of Young Progressives Party (YPP), and Esther Okereke of National Rescue Movement (NRM), analysts believe that the three candidates will shake the polity again because of the country’s political history, where ethnicity, religion, region, and sentiment override issue-based campaigns.

The 2023 presidential election was fiercely contested by the three candidates. Tinubu of the APC garnered 8,794,726 (37.62 percent). He was trailed by Atiku of then of the PDP who polled 6,984,520 (29.88 percent); Peter Obi of LP 6,101,533 (26.10 percent); and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) 1,496,687 (6.40 percent). Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi each won 12 states. While Tinubu won in Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Benue, Zamfara, Borno, Jigawa, Rivers, Atiku secured victory in Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Osun, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa. Obi won in Lagos, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Plateau, Nasarawa, Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi, Edo, Delta, and Cross River. Kwankwaso of NNPP, who is now Obi’s running mate for the 2027 presidential election, came fourth with victory in Kano State alone. Tinubu was declared winner after he met the constitutional requirements: highest votes and at least 25 percent in 24 states plus FCT. His 36.6 percent in the 7th election since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999 was considered the lowest winning percentage.

Some pundits see the outcomes of that election as a reflection of ethnic and religious affiliation as the Muslim-Muslim ticket adopted by the APC also pitched the party against the Christian community.

The 61-year-old Obi who came third behind Atiku was believed to be a major beneficiary as he won 12 states, including the FCT. Obi, was vice presidential candidate of Atiku Abubakar in the 2019 presidential election which they lost to late Muhammadu Buhari of APC, cleared all states from his region, the South East geo-political zone, and defeated incumbent President Tinubu in Lagos in 2023.

Going by current situation, the three formidable presidential candidates will meet again if the ongoing court case over ADC leadership goes in favour of David Mark-led National Working Committee (NWC).

The 79-year-old Waziri Adamawa, who served as the second elected Vice President of Nigeria from 1999 to 2007 under former President Olusegun Obasanjo, is seen as a frontrunner in the race for the 2027 presidency.

The former Vice President, who has operated within major political parties, including the defunct SDP, the PDP, the defunct Action Congress (AC), APC before joining ADC, entered politics with the encouragement of his mentor, Shehu Musa Yar’Adua. Atiku has run for the presidency at least six times (1993, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023). In 1993, 2011 and 2015, Atiku lost at the primaries. But in 2007 under the AC well as 2019 and 2023 under the PDP, he was defeated at the general elections. He lost to late Umaru Musa Yar’adua in 2007; Buhari in 2019; and incumbent President Tinubu in 2023.

In a recent interview, he declared the intention to pursue his possible last ambition to lead the most populous black nation on earth again. He also said the North appeared more united behind his candidacy ahead of the 2027 general elections because it remained his political base. Atiku enjoys bloc votes from the North in 2023 and expects to repeat same feat again in 2027.

However, Sunday Adeniran, a political analyst and supporter of Tinubu, said Atiku has no chance to win the next election that he will not even get 25 per cent in any of the 17 southern states and in some states in the North Central geo-political zone, including Benue, Plateau and Kwara states.

Adeniran, in a post on his Facebook, said, “As we speak, there is no state in Nigeria that is ruled by the ADC while APGA, LP, Accord and even APM have a governor each.

The party has only angry birds with no political value as members.

“He (Atiku) will definitely win a few states in North East and North West but that won’t take him close to winning the general election overall, for even Buhari, who has more followers in these two zones by far never won until he got a political enigma from the South to support him in 2025.

“Atiku cannot become president by relying on votes from two of six geopolitical zones and those who said that Obi will take Southerner votes from Tinubu are naive.

“The southern votes that will go to Obi are those that Atiku would have gotten if he and Obi had succeeded in running on a joint ticket.

“It is politically advantageous to Tinubu that Atiku and Obi are running separately.

“It is just like the 2023 episode but even better now for him because Atiku is running on a weaker platform this time while the support for Obi has also greatly waned.

Atiku’s chances in 2027 are brighter – Paul Ibe

Speaking with Nigerian Tribune on the chances of Atiku and implications of running a joint ticket with Obi, Paul Ibe, Media Adviser to former the Vice President, said those postulating such were people who had been used to buying votes.

He said the Waziri Adamawa, who has a pan-Nigeria mandate as reflected in the results of the presidential primary election, will have a smooth sail in 2027.

READ ALSO: Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso are Tinubu’s most reliable campaigners

When told that the supporters of Tinubu saw the action of both his principal and Obi to contest the presidency on different platforms as a plus for the incumbent, Ibe said, “Where are they going to get the votes from?. There must be a pathway. They should stop being delusional. It is because of the fact that they are used to buying their way. They used to coerce people. They think we have the same way. Nigerians will not be coerced. Nigerians are tired.

“Obi is vying on its own. How does that help Tinubu in the South for example? Where is the pathway for him in the South? Where is the pathway for him in the North? These are the issues we need to look at not for them to be postulating all manners of things because they want to win a return ticket that they need to earn. They have to earn it.”

On chances of his principal and factors that will work in favour of the Waziri Adamawa in what appeared to be a three-horse race compared to what happened in 2023, the media adviser said, “His chances have never been brighter. And let look at Waziri Adamawa himself and what he brings on the table. He brings competence, experience, especially his experience as Vice President. He has been involved at the highest level of policy formulation and policy articulation.

“One of his strengths is that he knows how to bring people together and he has stated it clearly. He will go to nooks and crannies of this country to look for the best of Nigerians to be able to help in this crucial period of rescue and rebuilding Nigeria.

“So, Nigerians know him very well. He is detribalised and the results of primaries in the ADC clearly show a pan-Nigeria mandate that was given to him by his party. He won across 30 states and FCT making 31 states, 73 per cent of the votes, people’s votes count, meaning that seven out of every 10 members of ADC wanted him. That was a very dominating win. And not only that, it spreads across 30 states, that is 73 per cent of the states. It also spreads across 8,809 wards. It spreads across local government areas. It spreads across geo-political zones. He won in the South East. He won in the South West. He won in the North West. He won in the North East. He won in the South South. In all of this, each state is represented. Clearly, that is the confidence that we have going forward.

“The fact that we have somebody who reflects our diversity and somebody who is prepared to work with Nigerians irrespective of their colour, tongue, and how they worship. These are the things we consider. Somebody who is tried and tested. So, it is not a trial and error show. And Nigerians know this because all Nigerians shop from the same market whether they are Igbo, Yoruba, Hausa, Muslims, Christians or atheists, whatever may be the mode of their worship. Nigerians are looking for somebody that will ensure the provision of security and the promotion of their welfare. That is what they are looking for. It is not what they are talking about. It’s my turn. It’s your turn. It is the turn of Nigerians. It is their turn to do away with insecurity. It is their turn to be able to put food on the table. It is the turn of Nigerians to be able to go to hospitals and seek medical care. It is the turn of Nigerians to afford school fees for their children or wards. Those are the issues that we are talking about. It is about economy. It is about education. It is about security. It is about healthcare of Nigerians. And those are the factors that will define this election. So we have a lot going for us.

“As a matter of fact, we are prepared and there is a lot of policy formulation that is ongoing. Already, there is a review. He had a blueprint in 2023. But it has to be aligned with the vision of the party, the ADC. So, all of that is ongoing and very soon, we will review that and start selling them to Nigerians

High number of candidates from South will affect Tinubu – Eze

Also speaking in the same vein, a chieftain of the ADC and former National Publicity Secretary of the nPDP, Chief Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, said Atiku will win in 2027 as high number of presidential candidates vying for the presidency would affect the chance of the incumbent president.

He said, “Looking at the key actors contrary to the summation if 2023 will be repeated by 2027, I say no considering the following factors:

“First, the number of presidential contestants from the South vying for 2027 presidential slot outweighs that of 2023. This time around, we have Makinde that will reduce the votes of Tinubu in South West. Duke from Cross River has gotten PRP ticket and Jonathan is going for that of PDP. Let us ignore Sowore and the guy from SDP that will one way or the other cut short the votes of Tinubu in the South.

“Obi as we know will surely try his best both in South East, South South, North Central and South West thereby reducing to a large extent the bulk votes due to Tinubu.

“On the other hand, Atiku has the entire North to himself except Kano. North Central is fighting ground for all the major political parties.

“In conclusion, the factor of Tinubu and his maladministration and inability to tackle the insecurity and level of hunger amongst Nigerians will surely turn 76 per cent of Nigerians against him.

“Except something extraordinary happens, I expect Atiku to win the 2027 general elections while Obi to come second due to the factor of Kwankwaso while Tinubu is not even sure of voting for APC come 2027 will come a distant third place.”

Eze said all plots deployed in 2023 had been studied and would do everything democratically possible to ensure that they were rendered ineffective.

President will defeat them again – Osita

However, a foundation member of the APC, Mr Osita Okechukwu, said President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will defeat former Atiku because the material conditions which enhanced his victory in 2023 are in place today.

He said, “Primarily among the factors is Atiku’s breach of zoning convention, which was adopted at the eve of the 1999 transition to democracy, to cement the fragile relationship between south and north.

“Fragile political landscape between North and South was heightened by the annulment of June 12th, 1993 presidential election which Chief M.K.O. Abiola won.

“It is in obedience to this zoning convention which made prominent northern politicians like flamboyant Abubakar Rimi, Dr Sola Saraki, Adamu Ciroma, Umaru Shinkafi etc to sacrifice their ambition, hence the nomination of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and Oba Olu Falae as the presidential candidates of PDP and defunct APP/AD.

“Hence, Atiku is a prime beneficiary of zoning convention, without which he couldn’t had been vice president in 1999.

“Is it not ironically that the same Atiku who benefited from the zoning convention, who opposed Jonathan in 2014 PDP’s presidential primary election and won in 2018, where in obedience to zoning convention no southern aspirant ran; is the one who is roundly opposed to the zoning convention?

“One could see Karma at work, because Atiku doesn’t have Buhari’s cult followership in the North and today APC has 18 states.”

Last month, the media office of former Vice President Atiku cautioned opposition political actors against embracing what it described as a self-defeating and intellectually dishonest narrative that insists the 2027 presidential ticket must be zoned exclusively to the South.

In a statement issued by Olusola Sanni, media aide to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the camp said while the ruling APC may understandably retain its southern presidential configuration around incumbent President Tinubu, it would amount to political naivety for the opposition to adopt the same logic without a sober assessment of electoral realities.

The statement noted that politics must be driven by strategy, coalition-building, and hard electoral arithmetic—not emotional talking points or selective moral arguments.

“The first and most obvious question is this: how does a Southern opposition candidate realistically unseat a sitting Southern president? Nigerian political history offers no precedent for such an outcome. No incumbent president has ever been defeated by an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical bloc. To insist otherwise is to enter the contest already defeated,” the statement said.

The Atiku camp further argued that the moral argument being advanced in favour of southern zoning collapses under scrutiny.

“By 2027, the South would have held presidential power for approximately 18 years in the Fourth Republic, compared to about 10 years for the North. If the South retains power for another four years, that disparity widens even further. It therefore becomes difficult to understand the justice in an argument that seeks to deepen an already existing imbalance under the guise of equity,” the statement added.

The statement also accused some political actors of selective memory and opportunism, particularly those who abandoned the zoning principle in 2011 following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, only to now present it as a sacred political doctrine.

“It is intellectually dishonest for those who enthusiastically supported a Southern presidency under Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, despite the North’s legitimate expectation under the informal zoning arrangement, to now suddenly posture as custodians of rotational justice. Principles do not become sacred only when they align with personal ambition.”

Obi, Kwankwaso joint ticket

Peter Gregory Obi, the former governor of Anambra State and the 2023 presidential candidate, was on Saturday officially endorsed by the NDC as its presidential nominee for the upcoming 2027 general election.

This affirmation took place at a special convention held in Abuja, following a motion introduced by Senator Victor Umeh and supported by former Deputy Senate President, Omo Agege.

Immediately after his endorsement, Obi nominated Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the former governor of Kano State, as his running mate, stating that Kwankwaso would be a genuine partner rather than a mere backup, in contrast to the approach of the current government.

Pundits say Obi-Kwankwaso ticket will secure votes in the South and the North. While the South East geo-political zone is considered as a sure bloc for Obi, they say most analysts have also conceded Kano to him because of the influence of the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, which is a grassroots, pro-youth movement focused on human capital development, education, and infrastructure in Kano.

Kwankwaso, who entered politics in 1992 as a member of the House of Representatives, later becoming Deputy Speaker, was a delegate to the 1995 Constitutional Conference.

He joined the NDC in 2026. He and Obi left the ADC to NFC, citing the ongoing legal tussle in the party.