Nigerian researcher develops cutting edge COVID-19 forecast model using supervised Machine Learning Algorithm

As the world continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, a young Nigerian researcher is breaking new grounds with a powerful tool that could enhance how public health officials predict the spread of infectious diseases—starting from his home country.

Hakeem Adekunle, a final-year Statistics student at the Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA), has developed a forecasting system that applies both Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and traditional statistical models like ARIMA to predict the daily progression of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.

His research, entitled ‘Predictive Ability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria’, has begun drawing attention within academic and public health communities.

Carried out between March 2020 and April 2021, Mr. Adekunle’s work involved testing both models on official pandemic data. The findings were compelling.

Across multiple training configurations, the ANN model consistently produced more accurate forecasts, outperforming ARIMA in error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).

“This model is more than academic,” Adekunle noted in a post-defense interview. “It’s a tool that could help public health planners anticipate outbreaks and allocate resources where they’re needed most.”

His model employed a (6:2:1) network architecture and was trained using Resilient Backpropagation with weight backtracking—an advanced learning method rarely used at the undergraduate level.

Data preparation included normalization and transformation to meet statistical requirements, demonstrating a rigorous methodological approach.

While the study acknowledged certain limitations, including reliance on publicly available case data and the absence of demographic variables, the superior predictive strength of the neural network presents a meaningful contribution to Nigeria’s COVID-19 response efforts.

This work arrives at a time when reliable forecasting tools are essential to pandemic management, particularly as Nigeria and the world confront new variants and evolving public health challenges. It is a timely reminder that local innovation can play a pivotal role in solving global problems.

As Hakeem Adekunle sets his sights on future academic and research opportunities, his project stands as a strong example of how young Nigerian scholars are shaping the future of data-driven healthcare.