Recent developments within the nation’s political space raise questions about activities of the fifth column within President Ahmed Tinubu’s camp. Situation within Osun is a typical case of insiders working hard to destroy the President’s base as they are also doing within the Lagos space.
The volatile political situation in Northern Nigeria is an open book. The North is revolting and it is doing so quite vehemently. An influential group in the North is mobilising across party lines to punish the incumbent for sins they felt he committed.
Northern rivals are forgiving each other and getting united In their anti-Tinubu plot. Political realists within the President’s camp know that the plot is real and they are permuting on counter strategies. The core realists remember the tide that swept former President Goodluck Jonathan out of office. It was a web of deep intrigue, signs of which are emerging gradually with the north as the launching landscape.
Several options are open to the President’s men. The most obvious is the path of reconciliation with aggrieved political forces. This route appears to be a failed line as the infighting appears to have degenerated beyond repair. Reports even suggest fifth columnists are within the President’s caucus.
The other route is geo-political realignment. This may involve balkanising the North and ensuring the ostracization of the North West from North East and the North Central. Capitalizing on the Vice Presidency in Kanuri axis, a reach out to the South South and South East can produce political magic. This path is a complex game of consensus building, demanding respect for regional interests of various players.
The President may also adopt a strong arm tactic of raising, empowering and strengthening his boys across the geo-political zones. This may entail railroading and diluting national institutions to overcome growing political diseases ahead of 2027. Mr President has the capacity to execute this dark path if he chooses to, considering his machiavelic experience.
There is however a condition for any of the options to work. The President must secure his home base. The six South Western states must one way or the other be politically united for the second term agenda of Mr Tinubu. How the President will achieve that line is still a deep contemplation.
Two states in the South West are particularly important, namely Oyo and Osun states. Oyo is the political capital of the Yoruba people. Osun is the ancestral state of all Yoruba including Mr President. Both states are currently controlled by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Governors of both states control the streets in addition to possessing heavy war chest. Both Ademola Adeleke and Seyi Makinde are doyens of the street in their respective states.
What should be the President’s tactics or broad strategy? Should the President focus on capturing the two states by brute force or win over the stakeholders there with some other subtle, less volatile model?
In the case of Osun, the President faces a precarious situation. His field men in Osun are quite unpopular with records while in governance. Any deployment of federal might will only deepen animosity against the Number one citizen. A smart move will be to secure a deal with the Adelekes on the 2027 elections in return for a similar understanding on 2026 state election.
The above line appears accepted by many key aides and associates of Mr President. It was seen as the most logical option. Yet a family member of the President fails to note and accept that the presidential basket is more precious than the gubernatorial plate. He is blinded by his own personal ambition to ignore and play ludo with the President’s sacred re-election goal.
That explains the headline of this write up. Who are the President’s enemies in Osun? Anybody prodding the president to overrun Osun State with force to take over the state is a closet enemy of Mr President.
What the President’s real men should do is to rally his homebase of South West behind him. A direct decision to create a solid base from where the President can launch out is the most apt strategy. At a time the core North is mobilising to derobe the incumbent, it is unbelievable that some family member of the number one citizen is setting his home base ablaze? Is that how to support your relation?
Before it is too late, genuine lovers of the President need to rework the current approach. The storm is gathering. This is real. Solidifying the home base should be an urgent policy.
● Fidipote Sangodare, a public affairs analyst, writes from Garki,Area 10, Abuja. He can be reached on [email protected].
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