In this analysis, KUNLE ODEREMI examines certain factors that have put the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) at a crossroads.
WITH less than one and a half years to the general election, the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) seems to be under a wide range of afflictions. The superstructure of the one-time ruling party is haemorrhaging on all fronts due to the terrible injuries caused by the major gladiators in its fold. There are fragmentations and fractures with varying dimensions and strands of loyalty, obeisance, confidence and trust.
The likes of a former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alhaji Sule Lamido have expressed deep concern about the predicament the PDP has found itself in. Lamido, a founding father of PDP, said he is not ready to abandon the party in spite of having shot itself in the foot. Similarly, the first deputy national chairman of the PDP, Chief Olabode George, declared he remains resolute as a top-notch of the party. Nonetheless, he is disgusted about how some ‘late comers and joiners’ of PDP have brought the party to its knees, due to their inordinate ambitions, egos and impunities. He claimed that political leaders under the G-34 that metamorphosed into PDP, who have passed on, would be sad about how a few elements within the party have torn the umbrella into shreds over time. And the latest twists and turns in the party was the Supreme Court judgment on Friday over the struggle by two tendencies on the position of National Secretary.
The protracted battle has been characterised by claims and counterclaims, as well as rounds of litigation. A five-member panel of the apex court said the issue of who was the national secretary was an internal affair of a political party. Senator Samuel Anyanwu had asked the court to set aside the majority judgment of the Court of Appeal and the trial court which removed him as national secretary on the grounds that he left to contest the 2023 governorship election in Imo State. The PDP had named Sunday Udeh-Okoye, to serve out the tenure of Anyanwu on the basis that Anyanwu relinquished the office when he obtained the expression of interest and nomination form of the PDP and subsequently emerged as the candidate of the PDP in the Imo election. The embattled Senator Anyanwu, however, has now returned to lay claim to the exalted office, following the latest judgment of the apex court, saying his ‘mandate’ has been restored to him to call the shots in Wadata Plaza, the party’s national secretariat in Abuja.
In spontaneity, the other camp of the party that backs Ude Okoye cried blue murder, claiming that judgment was unambiguous on the need to preserve the status of who should be recognized as PDP National Secretary. According to the National Publicity Secretary of the party, Debo Ologunagba, Sunday Ude Okoye remains the substantive National Secretary, insisting issues relating to party’s leadership positions, including that of the national secretary, are entirely an internal affair of the party requiring only the party internal mechanism to which the courts have no jurisdiction. He explained that the choice of Okoye followed due process as outlined in the PDP Constitution. “The judgment of the Supreme Court reaffirms the standing position of the party and emphatically settles the emergence of Rt. Hon. Udeh Okoye as the substantive National Secretary of the PDP, having been duly nominated, endorsed and ratified through the internal mechanism of the PDP statutory organs and bodies in line with provisions of the PDP Constitution (as amended in 2017),” Ologunagba stated.
Incidentally, the acrimony over the judgment came amid the disagreement of the vested interest in the fight over the conduct of zonal congresses of the party to pick new officers. The ripples over the congress held in the South-South are yet to settle even after the party’s leadership disowned the exercise, and announced a fresh arrangement to conduct a proper congress in the zone. The PDP leadership also rescheduled the zonal congresses for two other zones in the bid to rescue the party from the brink that is almost akin to the chain of events that led to the extinction of the vibrant and active Alliance for Democracy (AD). According to some observers, therefore, how PDP will wriggle out of the current quagmire over the zonal congresses may be subject to the party’s internal conflict control cum resolution mechanism, as fresh litigation cannot be ruled out. They relied on the evidence at hand that clearly shows the perennial failure of the party’s internal mechanism to resolve the crisis.
Pundits believe the other critical obstacle confronting the PDP is the emerging coalition of forces out to give the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) a good fight over the 2027 general election, especially the presidential race. The involvement of PDP’s main stakeholders, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, is giving a lot of other party stalwarts goose pimples. Having been the candidate of the party in the 2023 presidential election, the role of Atiku in putting together the coalition appears curious to many of the party faithful. Their worries stem from what they perceive as a deliberate effort to undermine the PDP since his co-traveller in the ongoing project and former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai has dumped the APC for the fringe party, Social Democratic Party (SDP). It came after weeks of speculation that the former governor was headed towards the SDP. Yet, Atiku has denied insinuations that he plans to dump the PDP.
The crisis of confidence in the main opposition party is equally underscored by the hide-and-seek within the PDP Governors Forum under the leadership of Governor Abubakar Bala Mohammed, of Bauchi State. As a second-term governor, he seems to be preparing seriously for a higher challenge after completing his tenure. Beyond his body language, the former senator and minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) has subtly signalled his interest in the presidency in 2027.
But many party members are curious about the real intention of the Bauchi governor after his public declaration on the qualification of Mr Peter Obi to lead the country. His view after he hosted Obi at the Government House, Bauchi, has been a subject of variegated interpretations and discussions in the political circles. Will Bala Mohammed run as a candidate or subsume his ambition under the bid of Obi again for the presidency in 2027?
At two different pre-election seasons in the past, the attempts by opposition parties to build a formidable alliance crumbled because of lack of compromise and inordinate ambition on the part of the major promoters. There was a move to build the coalition around the African Democratic Congress (ADC ). The was unsuccessful. The last effort that involved some pro-democracy organisations and chieftains of the Labour Party and others also failed even before it came alive. At the press conference led by Atiku in Abuja to proclaim the move to form the coalition designed to challenge the APC, Peter Obi was only represented, while Senator Musa Kwankwaso, the de facto leader of the New Nigeria Peoples party (NNPP), was neither represented. He has never renounced his consistent interest to run for the office of the president. Yet, he is a branch of the PDP tree. These disparate actions, divisions and cracks have ultimately led to the steady decline of the electoral value and patronage of the PDP,
In 2013, the APC emerged as a child of circumstance. Some leaders of the PDP, the Congress for Progressives Change and the Action congress of Nigeria, coupled with a splinter group of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) realigned to form the party. Mallam El-Rufai has promised that a similar scenario might soon unfold as the promoters of the new coalition step up consultations. But in the meantime, the flanks of the main opposition parties are being diminished by defections of their leaders. PDP, LP are the most affected so far and how PDP moves to contain further defections could go a long way in arresting the current haemorrhage in its structures across the country, where it has unarguably presence.
The current acting national chairman of the party, Ambassador Iliya Umar Damagum, was appointed acting chairman on March 28, 2023, in the wake of the suspension of the former chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, who was accused of anti-party activities. Before his appointment, Damagum was the deputy National Chairman (North). His elevation was based on the provisions of PDP Constitution, coupled with a court ruling. However, on October 11, 2024, another faction of the party announced the appointment of Yayari Ahmed Mohammed as the acting national chairman. The faction claimed that Damagum had been suspended over sundry issues. But, a Federal High Court ordered that the National Executive Council (NEC) and Board of Trustees (BoT) of the party should not recognize anyone else as the party’s national chairman except Damagum, ostensibly until the party holds a national convention in December this year.
Leadership Instability
The turnover of national chairmen of the PDP since 1998 bespeaks the level of instability within the party despite the influence it has exerted on the nation’s political space. The tenure of most of the chairmen was at the whims and caprices of the executive arm of government when the party formed government in collaboration with some powerful forces. The list of the chairmen includes Dr Alex Ekwueme, who acted for just a few months pending the conduct of PDP convention; Chief Solomon Lar; Chief Barnabas Andyar Gemade; Chief Audu Ogbeh; Colonel Ahmadu Ali (retd); Chief Vincent Eze Ogbulafor; Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo; Alhaji Haliru Mohammed Bello (Acting chairman); Uche Secondus and Senator Iyorchia Ayu.
Since the party was formed in 1998, only Senator Ahmadu Ali completed one term in office. The other chairmen were unceremoniously eased out usually engaging in supremacy contests over the party’s structures with the executive. Lar, who was the first substantive chairman from 1998 to 2002, fell out of favour with the then President Olusegun Obasanjo over the control of the party structures, especially the National Assembly. So the former governor of Plateau State was replaced by Gemade.
The relationship between Obasanjo and Gemade later went awry, thus another politician from Benue State, Chief Audu Ogbeh, came into the picture. A suave and assertive personality, Ogbeh was averse to executive recklessness and autocracy and soon ran into trouble as PDP national chairman. The rise and fall of Prince Uche Secondus as the new helmsman in Wadata house was equally dramatic and episodic. He rose to the exalted office on the crest of influential elements within the party. One of the arrowheads of his becoming the national chairman of the PDP was the then governor of his state, Rivers, Nyesom Wike. Intense intrigues later severed the umbilical cord when PDP executive in Ward 5, Ikuru town in Andoni Local Government Area of Rivers, suspended Secondus. It was catalytic to his controversial exit from the office of national chairman to pave the way for the Benue State-born Senator Iyorchia Ayu.
Retrogression
Recall that the formation of the PDP about 26 years ago was facilitated by mostly pro- establishment forces. Hordes of former top brass in the military establishment had joined forces with a coterie of influential and popular politicians, as well as scholars and traditional chiefs, to form what looked like an octopus, with presence across the length and breadth of the country. The membership also boasted of business tycoons. With sufficient logistics at its disposal, the PDP won the first general election with a commanding majority in the National Assembly, and state Houses of Assembly with the presidency as the icing on the cake. The dominance subsisted during the 2003 elections as PDP maintained the majority in the legislature with Obasanjo re-elected as president. Impunity, recklessness and autocracy on the part of the executive at the centre widened the crevices arising from lack of internal democracy, discontent over non-compliance with the expedient policies of power rotation and zoning of offices designed to encourage a sense of belonging among stakeholders in the PDP. The cacophonies continued and dovetailed into subsequent general elections with the performance of the party characterised by mixed fortunes that diminished the hitherto efficacy of the winning machinery of a party that once promised to rule the country for 60 years.
In the National Assembly election conducted on April 12, 2003, the PDP secured 54.5% of the popular votes and 223 out of 360 seats in the House of Representatives, and 76 out of 109 seats in the Senate. In the National Assembly poll of 2007, the PDP won 260 out of 360 seats in the House and 85 out of 109 seats in the Senate as the demonstration of its political awesomeness then.
Reconciliation committees
Central to the protracted crisis in the leading opposition party is the principle of zoning. It is part of the values enshrined in PDP Constitution to promote equity, justice and fairness. But the provision is being grossly undermined by a few power centres to the detriment of party cohesion and concord. Related to the zoning factor is the principle of rotation of offices. It is designed to complement the zoning formula so as to discourage marginalization and discontent among stakeholders in the party. The crisis that trailed the 2023 convention of the party held in Abuja to pick a presidential candidate of PDP exacerbated the raging mutual suspicion, distrust and regional cleavages within the party. To fill this huge crevice and regenerate amity within the party and among members, on August 21, 2024, the PDP inaugurated a 25-member reconciliation committee. It was headed by Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, while a minister of Foreign Affairs, Chief Tom Ikimi, led the national disciplinary committee.
In taking the initiatives, the NWC had charged all leaders, critical stakeholders and teeming members of the PDP to remain focused and committed to the vision, principles and aspiration of our great Party in the overall interest of the growth, development and stability of the PDP and the nation. The Oyinlola committee has since completed the assignment and submitted its report. Yet the centre has refused to hold in the PDP. Neither has the impact of the Ikimi-led committee reflected in the conduct of the party.
READ ALSO: Revocation of headquarters land, attempt to silence opposition – PDP
and then