NIGERIA is the seventh most populous country in the world. Her population is about half the total population of the entire West Africa, about eighty percent of the population of the North African Region and 80 % of the sum of Central and South Africa put together. Nigeria’s economy is ranked the 24th in the world in terms of purchasing power parity and the largest in Africa. This means patriotic elders, youths of Nigeria, world leaders and international organisations have responsibility to mankind in averting human disaster which any conflagration in Nigeria may portend.
Nigeria operates a federal system of government with acute dysfunctionality and only federal by name. Nigeria’s economy is woefully underperforming. Most observers agree that the Nigeria question is very serious. What with political shenanigans ravaging the political space, crony capitalism and ethnic demagoguery. Insecurity of lives and property, trust deficit and mutual suspicion is getting worse by the day. Today, our democracy is replete with stories of brutality, land grabbing and terrorism. Fear is driving people from their ancestral farmland.
People are afraid of traveling on the highways. Education system is in shamble. Unemployment is unprecedentedly high. These imbue the ethnic groups with the zeal to protect their ethnic nationality. It is becoming imperative to clamour for separation to form a country. The southern ethnic groups, particularly, are now unapologetic about their wish to secede. The Middle Belt region and minorities in the North are agitated and under the heavy yoke of poverty, insecurity and seeming complicity of leadership.
We should therefore regard the problem confronting Nigeria as one that concerns all mankind and study and solve it on that level. According to Ikudaisi Isola in his book “A road to nowhere”, “Nigeria is a multi-national state with deep social cleavages and it is clear that majoritarianism is an anathema. Consociationalism with segmental autonomy as envisaged in the federal arrangement is gradually being perilously jettisoned. Nigeria is a supranational association and should develop a suitable consociational system taking the various cleavages into consideration so as to enjoy political and social stability.”
The present system with weak States where economy, policing, security and judicial systemsare centrally controlled, where appointments and promotions to certain positions are the exclusive reserve of a particular ethnic group is inimical to peace. It is time we recognise that it is the responsibility of all to avoid a situation that may ultimately make the United Nation to send Peace Keeping forces to Africa yet again. It is time we discuss the future of Nigeria. This should not be left for Nigeria and Africa but also the developed countries and international organisations should take up the challenge fast.
It is clear now that ethnic hegemony, annihilation and land grabbing can no longer work. History has shown that promoting ethnic supremacy has never worked and will not work in Nigeria. It is better we evolve a workable system that will respect the rights and obligations and accept that we as human beings depend on ourselves to develop. We can lift ourselves and indeed Africa out of poverty if we choose to. But, Nigeria, as presently structured may not guarantee peace and development. We must embrace a new political order. The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, initiated by China and India, may be a good guide if we sincerely want a peaceful and progressive single country. For peace and development in Nigeria we should embrace The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence which are: mutual respect for territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in each regions affairs, equality and cooperation for mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence. Though these principles were created to guide relationship between the two nations of China and India, I think they will be appropriate in guiding relationships between the regions of Nigeria given our deep rooted ethnic polarisation, cultural and belief diversity. Peaceful coexistence is possible in Nigeria but mental, structural and political readjustments are inevitable.
Also in the book “A Road To Nowhere” Mr. Ikudaisi Isola wrote “The northern leaders cited disparities in economic and educational development between the south and the north as the reason for their unpreparedness for self-government in 1953. It is ironic that, over one hundred years after amalgamation and over sixty years after independence, there has not been any tangible effort to practically improve the educational and economic potentials of the masses of the north even by governments of the northern States. The disparity is perhaps widening.” Most observers believe that all regions fared better during the period immediately before and after the independence. The incursion of the military and the introduction of unitary system has done a great deal of damage to the relationship between the ethnic groups. For peace and development Nigeria need to revert and rebuild the nation by reexamining the relationship between the ethnic groups and the foundation of the union.
Regional conversation series on national rebirth
Nigeria is in urgent need of a rebirth. Ethnic consciousness and religious tensions ravaging the country are traceable to the perceived apparent restriction of economic, social and leadership opportunities. The upsurge in separationist sentiments may also not be unconnected to incessant warring over territories and the ill-disguised expansionist agenda of some ethnic groups. Europeans created Nigeria but were unable to create Nigerians out of the diverse ethnic groups neither had succeeding leaders. The resurgence of terrorism, banditry and other tragic events which some believe are targeted at some ethnic groups without even a whimper of caution from the government has created great distrust tending towards enmity among the various ethnic groups. Memories of past atrocities remain etched in the minds of the victims fueling pathological hatred and the fantasies to revenge. Nigeria went through a bloody civil war in the past. Any country with a history of civil war needs much care as the prospects of another war are always high. Yet there is no record of a country that has survived two civil wars. Nigeria should come to terms with the fact that it is an amalgamation of different ethnic groups which had self-government at different periods and got independence under a federal arrangement as regions. Nigeria can therefore never be governed as private fiefdom of any ethnic group.
Something must give. We cannot afford to succumb to the current disaster confronting Nigeria. It’s time to organise a conversation to save our future.
Drastic political decision must be taken and executed to avert the looming disaster. We have an urgent duty to opt for the least-disruptive reconstruction of the Nigerian nation if we are to avoid destructive conflagration. Nigeria is now a tinder box which, given the mere size of the country, will negatively impact on the whole of Africa if allowed to explode.
Each ethnic group should urgently undertake a SWOTanalysis, evaluating its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats,organise a conversation and referendum and draw up a regional constitution to determine how they want to be governed. The regions should thereafter have a conversation to negotiate how to unite theregions as a truly federal republic with a constitution as agreed to by the federating regions just as we had before the advent of the military coup d’états.
This may not be easily done except with international assistance. Intergovernmental organisations may need to wade in urgently to avert civil war. It should be noted that sovereignty can only be respected when responsibility is upheld. When the citizens or a certain group become vulnerable and “their Governments become their persecutors instead of their protectors or can no longer shield them from marauding armed groups” it becomes imperative for well-meaning individuals and responsible organisations like the United Nations to intervene. People should not be allowed to resort to self-help.
A repeat of #EndSARS type of uproar may not be easy to quell. “Self-determination of peoples” is one of the fundamental principles of the UN. At the 2005 World Summit, all members of the United Nations General Assembly unanimously adopted The Responsibility to Protect (R2P). The R2P consists of three important and mutually-reinforcing pillars, as articulated in the 2009 Report of the Secretary-General on the issue, and which build off paragraphs 138 and 139 of the 2005 World Summit Outcome Document and the intergovernmental agreement to the principle. These are; the protection responsibilities of the state; International assistance and capacity-building and timely and decisive response.
Every ethnic group that feels oppressed and or unwanted in a country should be free to expect the UN to support fair, democratic referendum in which inhabitants could determine how they prefer to be governed.
In conclusion, we hereby call on patriotic Elders, Youth organisations, Leaders of ethnic groups, relevant international and Inter-Government Organisations to initiate, support and ensure Regional Conversation Series On National Rebirth.
- Oladejo, FCA, writes in from Ibadan.
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