Of 2019, ADC and Oke-Ogun

AS the controversy regarding the choice of a governorship standard-bearer in the Oyo State chapter of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) continues to rage, it has become expedient for the leaders of the party to put on their thinking camp and settle for the best strategy that can help the emerging opposition party win in the 2019 general elections.For anyone conversant with the politics of Oyo State, it will be clear that the rainbow coalition that formed the ADC in the state is a powerful one that can win election. With former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, a man who singlehandedly took Accord Party to glorious heights in Oyo in 2011 and 2015; former Secretary to the Oyo State Government and leader of the progressive family in Oyo State, Chief Michael Koleoso; another former SSG, Olayiwola Olakojo and the Chief Adebisi Busari-led former members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Unity Forum, the ADC appeared solid and configured to win elections in the state.

However, the alleged imposition of a governorship candidate by a few elders has begun to threaten the ship of the party. At a time that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) have picked their governorship candidates, Mr Seyi Makinde and Mr Adebayo Adelabu respectively from Ibadan, while former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala from Ogbomoso also declared his intention to run for the office of governor, leaders of the ADC in Oyo, who possess great erudition in politics, should know that Oke-Ogun is its fertile ground to get the votes. And to achieve this possibility, there can be nothing better than picking an indigene of that axis as its standard-bearer. Giving Oke-Ogun a look-in on its governorship ticket would be timeous and turn out to be an election-winning strategy.

The reasons for my position are not far-to-seek. One, Oke-Ogun has the second highest voting population after Ibadan. Two, Oke-Ogun indigenes are in large population in Ibadan, the state capital and would ordinarily be persuaded to support one of their own. Thus, at a period that the agitation for a governor of Oke-Ogun extraction has reached a head, the ADC would be making a calculated move by allowing an Oke-Ogun indigene to fly the party’s flag for the 2019 governorship election in the state.

ALSO READ: EO6: Protect Judiciary from fascism, PDP charges CJN

Though the uninformed and myopic might argue that Ibadan has the largest voting population and that since two other parties had picked an Ibadan man, the ADC could not but do the same, a cursory look at the results of the 2015 governorship election in the state would reveal that such argument is baseless.

In the 2015 election, four Ibadan indigenes were in the running for governor. At the end of the day, what is considered to be the voting power of the capital city was watered down, as the four candidates shared the votes among themselves, while Alao-Akala held his ground in Ogbomoso axis. The incumbent governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi, ended up edging the others out with the massive votes he got from Oke-Ogun and he has never hidden this fact. Summarily, Oke-Ogun was the decider of the 2015 governorship election in the state.

With the current shape of things in the politics of Oyo State, there is no gainsaying that a similar scenario will play out in 2019: Alao-Akala will, as usual, hold his Ogbomoso stronghold while the PDP and the APC would have to fish from the same Ibadan pond. If the ADC makes the mistake of going ahead with imposition, there is no doubt that Ibadan’s voting strength would, again, not count in who becomes the next governor of the state. As the saying goes that politics is local, it is clear that if the 2015 scenario is allowed to play out again, whereby three Ibadan indigenes and one Ogbomoso indigene are the only leading candidates in the race, Oke-Ogun would most likely not choose the ADC. Anyone who knows the politics of Oke-Ogun, beginning from Iseyin to Okeho, to Saki, will know that there is the tendency to go with the ‘progressives,’ while the voting pattern in Irepo/Oorelope/Olorunsogo Federal Constituency, which is closer to Ogbomoso, tends to favour Alao-Akala.

For now, the ADC still has the edge over others. Its leaders must demonstrate the courage and foresight to pick a candidate from Oke-Ogun, the only electoral fallow ground remaining and end up getting the votes of Oke-Ogun people, who like never before, appear determined to have one of their own occupy the governor’s seat. As the saying goes, a word is enough for the wise.

• Dr. Ayinde writes in via [email protected]