Non-oil economy finally crawls out of recession

Non-oil sector of the Nigerian economy, which continued into recession during the second and third quarters of 2017 finally crawled into positive territory, growing by 0.47 percent in the fourth quarter of the year.

Oil production GDP, which grew 25.89 in Q3 declined to 8.38 percent in Q4 and recorded a full year figure of 4.79 for 2017 with actual production dropping from 2.03 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q3 to 1.91 in Q4.

According to Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Q4 & FULL YEAR 2017) released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, aggregate GDP during the fourth quarter stood at N31,209,137.74million in nominal terms higher when compared to N29,169,058.99 million in Q4 2016, resulting in a Nominal GDP growth of 6.99%.

This growth is lower relative to growth recorded in Q4 2016 at 12.49%. Nominally, 2017 recorded an annual growth rate of 12.05% higher by 4.25% compared to 2016 annual growth of 7.80%.

GDP grew in Q4 2017 by 1.92 percent (year-on-year) in real terms, maintaining its positive growth since the emergence of the economy from recession in Q2 2017.

This growth is compared to a contraction of –1.73% recorded in Q4 2016 and a growth of 1.40% recorded in Q 2017.

Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 4.29%.

NBS noted that 2017 recorded a real annual growth rate of 0.83%, higher by 2.42% than –1.58% recorded in 2016.
Real oil sector growth reduced by –17.50% when compared to Q3 2017 which was 25.89%, dropping quarter-on-quarter by –25.52% in Q4 2017.

The non-oil sector grew by 1.45% in real terms during the reference quarter. This is higher by 1.78% point compared to the rate recorded same quarter, 2016 and 2.21% point higher than in the third quarter of 2017.

During the last quarter, agricultural sector grew by 4.23% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase by 0.20% points from the corresponding period of 2016 and from the preceding quarter by 1.17%.

“An annual growth rate of 3.45% was recorded, a decrease from 2016 annual growth rate of 4.11%.

The sector contributed 26.18% to overall GDP in real terms, lower than the third quarter of 2017 which stood at 29.15%.

Also, real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the quarter under review was 0.14% (year on year), higher than the same quarter of 2016 and the preceding quarter by 2.68% points and 2.99% points respectively.

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The growth rate of the sector on a quarter-on-quarter basis stands at 5.02% and annually, stands at –0.21%. This is 4.11% points higher than the 2016 annual growth rate of –4.32.

The human health and social services sector contracted by -0.38% in Q4 2017 from -0.85% in Q3 2017 and -2.49% in Q4 2016.

The education sector contracted by -1.04% in Q4 2017 from – 1.22% in Q3 2017 and -0.09% in Q4 2016.

Public Administration sector contracted by -0.45% in Q4 2017 from -0.72% in Q3 2017 and -4.15% in Q4 2016.

Real Estate sector contracted by -5.92% in Q4 2017 from – 4.12% in Q3 2017 and -9.27% in Q4 2016.

Insurance under Finance and Insurance sector contracted by – 15.71% in Q4 2017 from -1.86% in Q3 2017 and 1.09% in Q4 2016.

Telecommunications & Information Services under Information and Communication sector contracted by -3.28% in Q3 2017 from -5.68% in Q3 2017 and 1.03% in Q4 2016 Q3

Post and Courier Services under Transportation and Storage sector contracted by -11.91% in Q4 2017 from -45.85% in Q3 2017 and -20.19% in Q4 2016.

Information and Communication sector contracted by -1.46% in Q4 2017 from -4.48% in Q3 2017 and 1.38% in Q4 2016,” the report indicated.