THE looming governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states, whose party primaries are already full-blown in Ekiti state but gathering speed in Osun, promise to re-define not only South-West politics but the 2019 general elections as a whole. So, the elections are dress rehearsals for 2019 and its outcome will foretell the shape of things to come. It is in this regard that the leading parties and aspirants at state and national levels cannot afford to handle the elections with kid gloves. Already, old friendships are being put to the sword, as they say, and new alliances and dalliances are emerging and re-shaping by the day. Political activities in Ekiti and Osun, now in a state of frenzy and flux, will take some time to simmer. So, what “is” today may eventually not be; what appears may disappear; what seems impracticable may soon be celebrated; and what is discarded as impossible may yet carry the day. Such is the nature of politics not only here but universally; otherwise, how come Donald Trump became president of the United States of America and David Cameron lost Brexit vote in Britain?
It is in this light that the propositions and analyses of my brother, Lanre Adewole (“Gibbers”, Sunday Tribune, 22 April, 2018 at page 29) titled “For Omisore, Fayose, and Aregbesola” make interesting as well as intriguing reading. The import is that old friends are turning new foes and politicians hitherto with “irreconcilable differences,” as it were, are warming up to one another. Politicians are shuffling the cards and platforms are changing as carpets are being crossed. With many and for many, things are falling apart and the centre can no longer hold. Over the looming Ekiti and Osun elections, friends (not girls this time, apologies to Chinua Achebe) are at war. And the war is already getting as messy as wars can be. Casualties are bound to strewn the political landscape. My sympathy goes to friends and associates of former friends now turned gladiators who may be called upon to take position. Tried as Lanre did to tip-toe around vexed issues, I doubt if he would still not get knocks from some or all of the three politicians he mentioned in his write-up – or that I myself will not with this exercise! Like Lanre, I am familiar with the trio of Omisore, Aregbesola, and Fayose in that order and I know none of them goes by halves but are rigorous, intense, and engaging. Not even an angel can please all three at one and same time, especially when they have now chosen to pitch their tents in different directions.
In my very close relationship with politicians, I have noticed, like Lanre also affirmed, that the very first quality they sacrifice in pursuit of their political goal is objectivity and rationality. Maybe “sacrifice” is too harsh a word to use; let us then use “down play” or “hide.” A man who cannot win his ward boasts he will deliver the whole world. They do this probably so as not to discourage their supporters; to test the waters, to drag issues to its elasticity limit; and to get the required attention which, ultimately, ends at the negotiation table where “something” is eventually found to placate the stubborn. It has worked for both Fayose and Aregbesola; why not Omisore? Fayose once said it is the man who says “I will not agree” that people wait to listen to; like the biblical Blind Bartimeaus! But for the stubbornness, obduracy, and never-say-die spirit of Aregbe and Fayose, how would they have become governor and how would Fayose have come back in 2014? That, I suspect, is the thinking of Omisore as he doggedly pursues his ambition to become governor of Osun State. Is Fayose against Omisore’s ambition? It appears so but, interestingly, he is not! Fayose’s hands are, however, tied by a number of factors.
One: It would appear incongruous for him to support rotation in his own Ekiti where he wants power to shift from Ekiti Central to Ekiti South and fail to support power rotation from Osun Central, where Aregbe and Omisore come from, to Osun West, where there is the clamour for it. Two: As chairman of PDP Governors’ Forum and the only PDP governor in the South-West, Fayose is obsessed with continuity in Ekiti and adding to PDP fortunes in the zone by winning Osun. With his truculent advocacy against the Muhammadu Buhari administration, Fayose will give anything to have Buhari offloaded in 2019 – and I believe he has the support of many in this regard, if only on account of the senseless killings by Fulani herdsmen that Buhari only tackles with sanctimonious preachments and useless condolence messages. Fayose believes the process of terminating Buhari’s administration begins this year with the Ekiti and Osun elections – and in this he is damn right.
Therefore, he wants whoever can win the Ekiti and Osun elections to come forward. If in Ekiti, he sacrificed his personal interest and ego to push forward Prof. Kolapo Olusola Eleka as PDP aspirant, he will do no less in Osun to sacrifice his friend and associate, Omisore, in the larger interest of PDP and the nation at large. We will soon return to Ekiti. Of course, Omisore will have none of this. Did the same Fayose not work against zoning to return as governor? Did he not scale monumental hurdles to make a come-back? What gives Fayose the impression that Omisore can do no less? Unfortunately, Fayose seems not to believe Omisore can pull this nut out of the fire at this point in time (emphasis, mine). So, he would have preferred Omisore going to the Senate, choosing the deputy; anything so that Osun West can have the governorship slot and brighten PDP’s chances of winning the September 22 governorship election in the state. Fayose himself admitted he was lucky to have “escaped” zoning in Ekiti; but that he escaped unscathed does not someone else will. This, again, is in the nature of politics.
I was on Omisore’s side in the 2014 election against Aregbe and maintained my anti-Aregbe stance thereafter principally on account of my friendship with Omisore as well as Aregbe’s dangerous hijab politics. Thank God we nipped the needless Osun religious controversy in the bud! Who knows, maybe the South-West would have been the Middle Belt of today! It was on account of this that Aregbe got across to me and we struck a friendship, which remains cat-and-mouse to this day. In the same 2014 election I was on the side of Kayode Fayemi and remained so after the election, prompting Fayose to call me on the phone in late 2016 and we have struck a relationship that, today, gives me a better appreciation of the enfant terrible – his sterling qualities, warts, and all. Readers of this column would remember I counselled Fayemi to work to return as governor of Ekiti but with a proviso – that he should use his tenure as Minister to worm his way into the hearts of Ekiti people by identifying and developing mineral resources in the South-west in general and Ekiti in particular. Did he do that? What can we as a people point at as our benefits from Fayemi’s ministerial appointment? Another question Fayemi will also have to answer is that posed by my comrade, Femi Falana, SAN: What he did with the bond that he took. Where is the Oja-Oba or funds for the market he pledged to build? And why did he not appear before the commission of enquiry set up by Fayose when it was Fayemi himself who enacted the law? Fayemi is up against over 40 other aspirants for the APC ticket, chief of who are another ex-governor, Segun Oni; ex-Senator, now Presidential Adviser and hard-fighter, Babafemi Ojudu; and my comrade, Opeyemi Bamidele.
Accordingly to reports, Fayemi has the backing of the presidency, cabals, APC governors, Ministers, and very deep pockets, while Segun Oni has much of the APC structure in Ekiti and the Tinubu faction behind him. While Fayemi’s tenure as governor still leaves a sour taste in the mouth, especially with the revelations that came to the fore after his exit from office, Segun Oni is seen as uninspiring and clueless. I met him once when my friend, Segun Ilori, was his Commissioner for Special Duties (after having been his Chief of Staff) and he was a nice fellow – one on one – but not cut out for governance. Easily tossed here and there, I heard.
I respectfully submit that the best choice for governor at this point in time (again, my emphasis) is the one Fayose has made in Prof. Kolapo Olusola Eleka. I say this with all sense of humility and with due respect for my friends Kayode Osho, Dayo Adeyeye, and Owoseni Ajayi who could have been but were passed over. I dare to say that delay is not denial. I have said it before and it bears repeating here that Kolapo Olusola Eleka is a child of destiny. From the way he emerged as deputy governor to the way Fayose has picked him as successor, only the hand of God could have done it. Fayose left no one in doubt that he had someone else in mind but once he heard from God, he charged course. If you think he did not hear from God, ask God! May the good Lord perfect that which He has started! I will find time to extol the qualities of Kolapo Olusola Eleka in another write-up.
Those holding the short end of the stick may treat as scum what motivates Fayose in the choices he has made in Ekiti as well as in Osun. That is the way of politicians. When Biodun Olujimi suddenly emerged deputy governor during Fayose’s first term, torpedoing the favourite for the job, it was game for her but betrayal for the loser. But Fayose, from reports, had no choice. His hands, as it were and quoting Justice Sowemimo, were tied. I wish my friends, Dayo Adeyeye and Owoseni Ajayi, had played their politics differently. It is not too late, however, for all the sides, including even Olujimi, to mend fences. Omisore and Fayose should sit down together. Indeed, who says the trio of Fayose, Omisore, and Aregbe will not be needed on the same side of history in the war of Armageddon ahead to liberate this country from the stranglehold of killer-herdsmen and their sponsors, collaborators, defenders, and protectors?
To conclude, permit me to share some of my findings with you on Nigerian politics. It is said that in politics, there are no permanent friends but permanent interests. I dare to say that in Nigerian politics, there are no permanent interests as well; interests fluctuate with circumstances, times, and seasons. Agreements are difficult to keep in Nigerian politics; thus, what appears as betrayals and treacheries are commonplace. Decisions arrived at this moment are radically altered the next, ad infinitum. Doggedness, perseverance, and persistence have a place as well as their just reward in Nigerian politics. Strike the iron when it is hot as opportunity once lost may never be regained. Finally, God still rules in the affairs of men. He gives power to who He pleases.
and then