Addressing contending issues in Nigeria’s security situation

President Bola Tinubu recently said his administration had creditably acquitted itself in tackling Nigeria’s security challenges.

He said Nigeria had become more secure than it was in 2023, thanks to the country’s military and other security agencies and the strong leadership provided by himself as the Commander-in-Chief.

The president, through his Special Adviser, Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, was responding to the Catholic Bishops’ Conference President, Archbishop Lucius Iwejuru’s comments at its first plenary meeting of 2025 in Abuja.

Iwejuru had said youth unemployment, insecurity, poverty, corruption, and electoral fraud were some of the ills plaguing the country.

The clergyman also called on political leaders at all levels to take quick action to stop the country from drifting.

Tinubu acknowledged that “some of the governance challenges in the areas highlighted by the bishops remain”.

He said his administration had made great progress in all areas since he became president on May 29, 2023.

“In the last two years, more than 8000 criminals—bandits, armed robbers, Boko Haram terrorists, and kidnappers—have been eliminated, and over 10,000 Nigerians—primarily women and children—have been rescued from their abductors.

“As a result of improved security in our communities, especially in the North-West and the North-East, farmers have returned to their farms, and our country has seen increased food production.

“Farmers in Kaduna, Kebbi and Jigawa are eloquent testimonies of the improved security ambience.

“Similarly, farmers growing cash crops in many parts of the country are experiencing a new life of boom and prosperity,” he said.

Many government officials at one time or another echoed the president’s position on improved security.

One of them is the Minister of Interior, Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, who said the security situation in the country has improved in the past months.

The minister made the submission while receiving the Swedish Ambassador to Nigeria, Annika Hahn-Englund, in his office.

Going by the latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025, the ‘feeling’ of improved national security cannot be discountenanced.

According to the GTI, deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding the Sahel) are now at their lowest since 2016, dropping by 10 percent.

This is in spite of the number of countries recording a terrorist attack increasing from 58 to 66, according to the 12th annual GTI.

“This (the increase) reverses nearly a decade of improvements, with 45 countries deteriorating and 34 improving,” the report said.

Nonetheless, the Director of Defence Media Operations, Maj.-Gen. Markus Kangye, provided further insights.

He said that military intelligence and first-hand reports from the Nigerian armed forces provide a more accurate picture than external assessments.

“Something is happening in my house and I am the head of the house. Someone outside reports what is happening to me; who would be more correct, the head of the house or the outsider?”

Giving an update on military operations, Kangye said that Nigerian troops killed 92 terrorists, including a key terrorist commander, Abba Alai (also known as Amirul Khalid of Alafa).

According to him, the military arrested 111 criminals and rescued 75 hostages within a single week, promising a continued push back against insurgents and criminal elements across the country.

He also said the military would continue to challenge narratives such as that of the GTI which undermine its counter-terrorism efforts.

Meanwhile, some security analysts say Nigeria cannot continue to reject security data when they are unfavourable.

“I remember when we made progress and the same GTI gave us improved ranking; the report was accurate and celebrated then.

“I always maintain that adequate security is like rain; you don’t need to tell a bling man that it’s raining,” one analyst said.

Some experts say while security threats such as terrorism and violent extremism involve national and transnational state and non-state actors, the threats of kidnapping and banditry are close to home.

In its March 2024 Research Report titled “Mass Abductions: The catastrophe of Nigeria’s kidnap epidemic”, SBM Intelligence painted a disturbing picture.

The Africa-focused market intelligence, security analysis and strategic consulting firm said in the first quarter of 2024 alone there were 68 mass abductions, averaging over one per day.

“In the first quarter of 2024 alone, 1867 people were kidnapped with a victim count exceeding the entire years of 2019 and 2020 combined,” the report said.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) also raised some concerns.

In the report, the NBS put kidnapping incidence in the country at an estimated 2,235,954 between May 2023 and April 2024.

The Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey (CESPS) 2024 said that among households that experienced kidnapping incidents, 65.0 percent paid a ransom.

It also said the average amount paid as ransom for kidnapping was N2.7 million per incident with an estimated total ransom of N2.2 trillion paid within the reference period.

“The North-West reported the highest ransom paid with N1.2 trillion, while the South-East was the least with N85.4 billion.”

The report showed that rural areas recorded more kidnappings with 1,668,104 reported cases than urban areas with 567,850.

“Perhaps the disparity between rural (and oftentimes remote) and urban areas is the reason there are conflicting data from the government and other stakeholders,” an analyst said.

The first two months of 2025 also witnessed a surge in kidnappings, with no fewer than 195 Nigerians kidnapped in various incidents across the country in January alone, according to HumAngle Tracker.

Worthy of note, upon his inauguration,  Tinubu promised to bolster Nigeria’s security forces and accelerate the reforms commenced under the past administration in building a more robust, re-energised armed forces.

He promised to recruit, train and better equip additional military, police, paramilitary and intelligence personnel.

Another promise the president made was to redefine military doctrine and practice, with a promise to create highly trained and disciplined anti-terrorist battalions (ABATTS) with Special Forces units.

Worthy of mention, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission says it has initiated a contingency plan to mitigate unforeseen consequences of the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

The Commissioner, Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Abdel-Fatau Musah, spoke at the meeting of ECOWAS Committee of the Chiefs of Defence Staff (CDS) recently in Abuja.

Musah said the formal withdrawal of the three countries from the regional bloc on Jan. 29 required critical analysis of the security arrangement within West Africa and the Sahel.

He called on the ECOWAS defence chiefs to critically examine the implications of their withdrawal on regional security in the course of their deliberations.

According to him, the Central Sahel continues to be the epicentre of insecurity while the littoral states continue to bear the pressure.

“According to the GTI, Sahel accounted for 51 per cent of global terrorism deaths in 2024.

“Weak governance, ethnic tensions and ecological degradation have fuelled terrorism, worsened by transnational jihadist groups and geo-political competition.

“The Alliance of Sahelian States iis changing alliances by removing western involvements in security and economic sectors and withdrawing from ECOWAS,” he said.

Musah called for concerted effort to strengthen shared aspirations for a peaceful, secured and prosperous ECOWAS region.

He said that it was expedient for the meeting to further give momentum to the planning for the activation of the ECOWAS Standby Force (ESF) in its kinetic form for the fight against terrorism.

Security analysts say Tinubu’s administration needs trustable bilateral and multilateral cooperation in order to effectively fight against insecurity.

They say the president should prioritise collaborations with key neighbouring countries, international partners and allies to ensure the safety of Nigerians.

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