THE real battle for the 2019 presidency has commenced. With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) releasing the full timetable for the election year, activities within the camps of presidential hopefuls, especially from the Northern part of the country, which appears likely to produce the next president going by the consensus in the two major parties, have taken an upward swing.
The announcement has also revved the machineries of the parties, especially the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), where the various caucuses have stepped up their game.
The INEC timetable made public on January 9, 2018 requires that all the 67 parties complete their presidential, governorship, national and state Houses of Assembly primary elections by October this year, with the presidential and National Assembly elections set to hold on February16, 2019, while governorship and State Houses of Assembly polls will be conducted on March 2 next year.
The commission’s chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, while expatiating on the schedule for the transition programme, explained that the Publication of Notice of Election for national and state elections will be on August 17, this year, while that of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council elections is fixed for September 3. Further insight into the timetable indicates that collection of nomination forms by parties for national and state elections will begin from August 11 to 24, while that of the FCT Area Council elections will be from November 3 to 10. The date for the commencement of campaign is November 18 for presidential and National Assembly elections. The last day for campaigns is February 14, 2019 for presidential and National Assembly Elections as well as February 28, 2018 for governorship, State Assembly and FCT Area Council Elections.
Matters arising
Before the timetable was announced by the INEC on Tuesday, it was gathered that some influential citizens had been making consultations on how they could play a key role in the next presidential contest. Some confidants of the personalities said the team, which comprises known godfathers, said such intervention was necessary to avoid certain obvious mistakes and pitfalls as the journey to the next elections progressed. Right now, there is uncertainty in the leading parties as the battle to overcome all manner of crises, with most of them bordering on ego, ambition and demagoguery.
Within the APC, the tenor and temperature point to the likely bid by President Muhammadu Buhari for a second term in office is reaching fever pitch. Some stakeholders in the party are yet to fully read his lips and comprehend his body language on the issue. The indecision of the few, according to sources, is that the president might take offence if they try to preempt him or pitch tent with rival camps in the race for the Presidency. Nonetheless, the ambivalence of the few has not slowed down the zooming train of endorsement of the president for second term by groups, state chapters of APC and sympathisers spread across the country. Most of the 19 state chapters in the Northern part of the country have endorsed the president, even though in Kano State, where the president received massive votes in the 2015 election, there is a widening gulf in the APC structure. The fratricidal war between the state governor, Alhaji Abdulahi Ganduje and his estranged hitherto godfather, Senator Musa Kwankwanso, who is a presidential hopeful, had pierced the soul and heart of the state’s APC chapter. The governor is said to have foreclosed possible reconciliation with his former boss/predecessor in office with the increasing speculation of the senator’s camp going into an alliance with other forces ahead of the 2019 elections.
The camp of another former governor of the state and former minister, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, is said to be gaining more strength, as it has remained a potent force in the political space of Kano. His continued sojourn abroad, it was gathered, has not diminished his status or weaken his political machinery, which has been involved in a series of events to promote his renewed presidential ambition. Part of his selling points is his eloquence and depth, his mental capacity to tackle knotty issues, but all of which some elements in the PDP said do not obfuscate his weak-point of lacking the aggression to withstand the propaganda machinery of the APC.
In the PDP, the leaders are preoccupied with cementing the seeming cracks arising from the conduct of its national convention. The situation necessitated the troubleshooting mission launched by the new leadership of the party shortly after the convention held in Abuja last December. The chairman of the PDP Reconciliation Committee and governor of Bayelsa State, Serieka Dickson was expressly given a fresh mandate to reach out to the aggrieved major stakeholders, especially contestants for the post of national chairman, who felt shortchanged during the contest. It was learnt that the governor and his team will commence the second phase of the reconciliation visit this week, barring any last-minute change of schedule.
North and 2019
The welter of crisis in the North lately has not doused the flame and passion radiating in the political circle in the region over the 2019 presidential race. The main political gladiators, through their foot soldiers are consistently oiling their machinery. Checks revealed steady moves by some political godfathers, who are collaborating with their colleagues in the Southern axis to consider a number of options and permutations ahead of the conduct of primaries by political parties to choose their candidates for the 2019 elections. Names like those of a former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; Kwankwaso; former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido and former governor of Kano State, Shekaru; Governor Aminu Tambuwwal of Sokoto State and his Gombe State counterpart, Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo still dominate the political discussions and space in the North. Though Kwankwanso and Tambuwwal are of the ruling APC, a close associate of President Buhari, who pleaded for anonymity, said the president would seek re-election, a development that might push the duo out of the ruling party. Another source supported the view, noting that with the re-appointment of the current Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi as the Director General of the Buhari Campaign Organisation, the coast appeared clear for the president to seek a fresh term. The choice of Amaechi, it was learnt, was strategic as he is seen as a prominent member of Buhari’s inner cabinet from the South-South region.
An APC stalwart, who would not like his name in print, however, said the fact that President Buhari would contest “does not mean that others who are interested in the presidency would not have the chance to contest,” a view that was also shared by the national leader of the APC, Senator Bola Tinubu, who said President Buhari would not be given an automatic ticket.
The changing dynamics
In the South-East, which had since 1999 been a PDP stronghold, the APC now boasts of prominent politicians who have promised to support the candidacy of Buhari in 2019. Some of such politicians include former governor of Abia State, Chief Orji Kalu; former Senate President, Senator Ken Nnamani and a former Minister of Labour, Emeka Wogu, with observers noting that the development might brighten the chances of the South-East, who is staking claim to the 2023 Presidency.
Kwankwanso
Sunday Tribune gathered that Kwankwanso, who came second during the last presidential primary election of the APC, might again slug it out with Buhari. Already being referred to as ‘Khalifa ‘ (successor) in the North, Kwankwanso boasts of a strong political machinery in Kano, which delivered by far the highest number of votes to the APC in the presidential election. Kwankwanso was one of the five PDP governors who defected from the party and shot down its hope of retaining the Presidency in 2015, with Kwankwanso’s Kano State proving the most important among the states lost to the APC.
Though the discord with his successor, Ganduje, is said to be potent enough to weaken his chances, the former minister’s camp has not only been revving up activities, with a recent move to visit Kano State days after Buhari’s visit said to be a way of testing the waters and showing that the strongman of the Kwankwasiyya movement still commanded a large following in the state.
Tambuwal
Another presidential hopeful, who is widely considered as capable of causing a big stir in the 2019 presidential race is the Sokoto State governor and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Aminu Tambuwal. Though he has not come out to make his intention known, observers have maintained that his body language has continued to show that he is interested in the nation’s number one seat but only waiting for the right time.
Tambuwal, who began the open confrontation against the PDP establishment as Speaker and member of the erstwhile ruling party, a development that contributed largely to the PDP’s loss of the National Assembly and huge following in many states, is considered as a younger alternative to the president by some elements in the APC. But whether Tambuwal, who was once touted as the likely candidate of the APC before the primary that produced Buhari, would be able to fulfill his aspiration in 2019 has become a big question, with insiders in the APC alleging that the governor, like his predecessor in the state, Aliyu Wammako, had been aloof in the party for some time due to being allegedly sidelined by the Presidency. The rumour over Tambuwal’s presidential aspiration is further fuelled by recent meetings he had with Governors Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, whom observers noted might be part of the plot to bring Tambuwal back to the PDP, where some elements are already working for his emergence as presidential candidate.
Atiku
His return to the PDP is seen as both an asset and a challenge for the party. The former vice-president, apart from being an old battle-tested politician with huge financial strength and a deeply-entrenched structure that cuts across the 36 states and the FCT, appears to be the only presidential contender with the experience and determination to wrestle power from Buhari. Atiku, who recently left the APC, is also reputed for having the needed arsenal to wage a war against the APC, having discreetly put in place several structures and strongholds in the party, which are still in control of critical segments in the APC and might work in favour of the former vice-president even from within the APC.
The challenge the Wazirin Adamawa might face, however, lies in the fact that he appears larger than life in a PDP where “small boy governors” are now in control of the party machinery, with the governors reportedly interested in wielding their influence, a development that might not sit well with Atiku and his nationwide structure. Already, in spite of Atiku’s financial muscle and experience, he is said to not be enjoying the support of serving and former PDP governors, as a number of them are equally scheming to get the party’s ticket for 2019.
Informed sources, however, told Sunday Tribune that the Atiku camp, renowned for its massive consultative prowess, had been engaging in series of meetings and efforts to ensure that their principal faces no barrier ahead of the landmark election.
Dankwambo
One of the leading presidential aspirants in the PDP and Gombe State governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, might not have officially thrown his hat in the ring for the contest; his political camp has been agog with activities regarding the aspiration. Said to be the anointed candidate of some PDP governors, Dankwambo, a former Accountant-General of the Federation, will have as credentials his prowess as the only sitting governor to win his state for the PDP in the tsunami of the 2015 elections that swept away the PDP in all but one North-East states. He is particularly said to be a formidable candidate given that the popularity of Buhari in Gombe ahead of the poll was towering.
He is also said to be largely loved by his people because of the massive transformation he has done in the state. However, whether that acceptance can be replicated in other states of the North remains to be seen.
Makarfi
The former PDP interim national chairman is said to be another forerunner for the presidency in 2019. While he has played hide and seek over the issue for months, most of his admirers and supporters have embarked on series of public functions designed to promote his political interest and ambition. He is considered less controversial and a veritable bridge builder in the party and the country, given how he successfully managed the crisis that almost consigned the PDP to the dustbin of history.
The Gusau connection
But outside of the aspirants who have shown intention to contest the 2019 presidential election and those still mulling the idea, Sunday Tribune reliably gathered that powerful elements in the country have begun a high-powered search for a presidential material ahead of the poll.
A source noted that three former Nigerian leaders are already believed to be working on a joint option concerning the 2019 presidency project, with the leaders said to weighing an option that could thrust a former National Security Adviser (NSA), Lieutenant-General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau (retd) into the race for the leadership of the country next year. Though he sought the ticket of the PDP in the past, he appeared to have since embraced the private life, a development which the source noted might soon change if the arrowheads “are able to convince him and several others to embrace the idea.”
According to the source, the three leaders met recently to profile the names of those politicians from the North that are ready to run in the next election. It was gathered that the leaders were not favourably disposed to Atiku, and one of them (leaders) saved the meeting from a deadlock by proposing the name of Gusau. The source claimed that all the former leaders unanimously endorsed his name. It was learnt that one of the grounds that they gave was that he could use his wealth of experience to tackle the mirage of security challenges be-devilling the country. More so, he is seen as one of the founding fathers of the PDP, who commands a lot of respect in the North. The meeting, it was gathered, agreed to meet with the party’s leadership to sell the idea of the former security chief.
Sule Lamido
His camp is unrelenting on the contest for the presidential ticket of the PDP. It took a number of far-reaching steps towards the end of last year to put the former Minister and governor of Jigawa State on a better pedestal. It was able to bring on board its campaign platform with many proven professionals cutting across the media to prepare a blueprint which is already at different stages of implementation. The camp is very active on the social media taking on the ruling party, APC, on a lot of issues that have to do with governance and democracy and rule of law.
Ibrahim Shekarau
He has been staying outside the country for quite some time now but he is regarded as a major pillar in the politics of Kano State. The former governor and minister is said to command an awesome following despite his decision to go on sabbatical abroad from the main political theatre of the North and indeed the country. He is, however, believed to be oiling and coordinating his political machinery at home due to the level of loyalty and allegiance by his political associates, supporters and friends.
National intervention
Even those behind the project of a third force, which is a coalition of political movements, pressure groups and sundry professional bodies have been busy with activities bordering on the presidential ticket. Thus, there are touted names like the fiery Colonel Abubakar Umar (retd), Professor John Dara, and Dr Tafawa Balewa, with such figures as Mr Femi Falala, Olisa Agbakoba, Professor Pat Utomi and others said to be part of the driving force of the coalition. The leaders argue that the necessity for a Third Force is because of the failure of leadership in the country since the country restored civil rule in May 1999. Their submission is that both PDP and the APC failed to utilise the confidence reposed in them by Nigerians to turn around things in things in the country. What difference can the coalition that goes by the name, Nigeria Intervention Movement make as the journey to the 2019 elections progress?
and then