Will SDP win Ekiti, Aso Rock?

Social Democratic Party evokes both bad vibes and sweet memory. In its original state, it was the vehicle that propelled a pan-Nigerian mandate. The downside was that the popular mandate was never used. It is like a vehicle in accident with tafiya lafiya (Hausa phrase for safe journey) written boldly on its both sides. That the vehicle is involved in accident doesn’t mean it can’t convey another set of passengers to their destinations safely, if well repaired and a sensible, experienced driver is in charge. But that it once got into accident, in the course of a cruise, may not inspire needed confidence in a new driver and intending passengers, even if well retrofitted to be accident-proof.

In the forthcoming Ekiti gubernatorial election, SDP is the Third Force. That strategy phrase, which has come to be synonymous with Nigeria’s peculiar mess of politics, has been reduced to the jejune. A sprinkle of disaffected losers in mainstream political parties, instead of staying frozen in the biting cold of political irrelevance, would just gather and berth with a funny new and swagger of invincibility that is completely at variance with the trouncing they just received in their parties and term themselves, the Third Force. Somehow, the media seems tired of listening to their hollow intellectual preachment and mouthed force they don’t possess. So, when you mention a supposed exclusive to editors about a gang somewhere forming the Real and New Deal, they just stylishly shift the conversation elsewhere, especially when certain names, now emblematic of serial Third Forcers come up as the “brains” behind the “project”. They are now mostly seen as Spent Force, always seeking media relevance and possibly, sponsorship, when they have, over time, demonstrated absolute lack of political capacity.

But Ekiti may be different, though Segun Oni, the projected “revenge” candidate is a known name in the criss-crossing adventure for viable governorship ticket. Only that this time, he has the backing of equally “angry” aspirants, especially from the ruling APC as support-base. In fact, one of the “angry” aspirants will end up, supplying Oni’s running mate. Call it cross-fertilisation of platforms, cross-pollination of ticket, or simply a hybrid team. Oni’s last outing was as a PDP “frontline” governorship aspirant. He tried befriending Ekiti strongman (love him, hate him, he is the most popular living politician in the state) Ayodele “Peter the rock” Fayose. But Ayo didn’t deliver joy to him. So Oni moved, so he can fight again. The aspirants from APC, are staying inside and pissing inside. The recent rapprochement between Governor Kayode Fayemi and Fayose is rankling many APC chieftains to the stratosphere. Politicians in the state are gearing up and dumping party allegiances to teach both a lesson in how not to mess with class objectives. Those who came to APC from PDP wanted to retire Fayose. Fayemi, perceptively providing his predecessor a lifeline, is a crime to them.

One of them, mentioned to me the percentage of votes with which Oni and SDP would win. It is a galloping projection.

But the SDP rejuvenation agenda is bigger than Oni and Ekiti. It is a national project to be midwifed from the South West. Even at that level, it is still a “we go show una” platform for would-be dissidents, mainly from the ruling party, but not discounting “friends and associates” who are in the main opposition.

Whether pundits like it or not, Nigeria is essentially a two-party state. APGA is a hang-on. The day it loses the governorship seat to either APC or PDP in Anambra State, its spiritual base, it becomes another free-ticket haven party, where the candidate is always bigger than the party. The immediate fortune of such “mushroom” political parties is always dependent on who is knocking their doors for tickets, at a given period, but their future is as certain as their shelf-life. As long as some contentious Supreme Court judgments subsist, these always-in-stock election commodities, would always be there, for the asking. Right now, they have no expiry date, and no growth prospects either. They are just there, making up the number and creating melodrama with their handful-of-people conventions and “presidential” primaries.

If a big masquerade eventually chooses SDP as home for the purpose of the general election, no doubt, the forest of the party, will shake and quake. For once, the party will be “big” again, close to the proportion of ‘MKO, he is our man ooo’. The ticket is already in the pouch and nothing threatens it, except if the masquerade decides to dance in different forest of a thousand demons.

There is this English proverb about the wisdom of leaving the certain for the uncertain. In this case, it is a reverse in one breath, and holds true in another breath. Yes, SDP’s ticket is certain, which should ordinarily make it a sensible decision to opt out of a dogfight elsewhere with little prospect of victory, especially when those pulling the rope where the ticket is tied, are strongly pulling it away from you.

But of what use is a sure ticket which isn’t close to sure banker, when you can pour energy into the other dogfight and get everyone, including those pulling the rope, to the negotiation table. You may not get the ticket, but you are likely to go away with huge benefits in the course of negotiating necessary political deals. There are times the Baba Oba (the one widely respected by those on the throne) title, carries more symbolism of authority than the original symbol of authority. The choices are clear, but making them, are not always easy, I reckon with that.

That is why those confronted with those tough choices will be needing the Spirit of God, for guidance. The challenge is, they have gone away with many “victories” obtained on the altar of the devil himself, that they would not just see any need to be guided by the Divine, this time. Only that this time, things are likely to play out different. If any seer says being on the ticket of just any political party is a sure banker to winning the election, he is likely engaging in a gambling game of odds and ends. The favourite doesn’t always win elections in Nigeria and the bookies are always not correct. My cent.