With the off-cycle elections in Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa States just a month away, Professor Rotimi Ajayi, who has participated in successive elections held in the country since 1999 as an observer, speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on the chances of the leading political parties in affected states. The professor of Political Science at the Federal University, Lokoja, Kogi State, suggests how the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and other stakeholders in the electoral process can prevent some of the issues that affected the credibility of the last general election.
Speaking ahead of the next governorship election in Kogi State slated for November 11, how is the political atmosphere in the state?
Well, the atmosphere in Kogi State generally is not different from what it used to be in past election seasons. Each of the political parties has been canvassing for votes across the state and there is none of them that is taking it lightly or lying low as it were. Each of the parties is optimistic that it will carry the day. But it is too early to predict for now what may likely happen on election day. The ruling party is optimistic that it will retain the state, while the opposition parties are also gearing up to take over. As an observer, we have been looking at the parties selling their candidates to the people. We believe that at the end of the day, the best party will win.
But do you think the performance of the outgoing governor can actually retain the seat for the All Progressives Congress (APC)?
Well, it is not a matter of personal opinion, but what the people think. If the people believe that the outgoing governor has done so much for them, I believe they will want to retain that same party in power. And if they feel otherwise, they sure have the constitutional right to do so. But, for me, I don’t think I can speak for the entire state.
But when you look at the candidates of the three leading political parties: Senator Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party; Alhaji Murtala Yakubu Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Alhaji Ododo Ahmed Usman of the ruling APC. Which of them can you say is very popular among the people based on your observation so far?
There is no unpopular candidate on the ground as far as my own personal observation is concerned. I believe the PDP fielded the most popular candidate among the contestants at their governorship primary. I am talking about Dino. The opposition saw his level of popularity and the votes at the primary also favoured him. So it would be very odd for someone to say he is not very popular among the people. The same thing applies to Mr Ododo of the APC. Of all the contenders, the party decided to go for him as it were. And, of course, we all know the history behind the SDP candidate and his emergence. So, for me, the three of them are formidable and very popular in their own right and within their own domain. I want to believe that within the confines of their political party, each of them is the popular candidate that their parties can field at this time. I think the election will determine who is most popular among them. But, for now, during the campaign, you can’t determine the popularity based on what you see. Or what factors are you going to use to judge the popularity of a candidate during the campaign process? Is it the volume of crowd they are able to pull or the amount of money they are able to dispense? I don’t really think there is one factor that you can use to measure the popularity of a candidate at the pre-election stage. I just believe the most popular candidate is definitely the one that wins the election.
But with the way the Nigerian electoral system has been, such that violence and vote-buying have been the order of the day, do you really think even the popularity or manifestoes of the candidate and their parties can actually decide the direction and outcome of the election?
The tragedy of the Nigerian electoral system is such that manifestoes have become an anathema so to say. In Nigerian politics, aside from the history of elections which terminated during the second republic, we have never had any serious manifestoes since that period. One would recall with nostalgia the era of the Obafemi Awolowos when you can clearly remember the four cardinal points of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) off-hand even in your sleep. Then, you can easily recount the free education, free healthcare, employment generation, and others. But since that time up till now, I am not sure any political party can say that this is our manifesto and action plan for the people. So manifesto has ceased to be a defining factor as to who wins the election in Nigeria. And that is the tragedy of the African political system, not just about Nigeria alone.
We all know for now that our elections are rooted in primordial factors of ethnicity, religion, personality and all that is not. So, it is no longer about what the party has to offer the people.
But considering the fact that some of the issues that came up after the 2023 general election are yet to be resolved in the polity, do you think INEC can still be trusted in terms of delivering a free, fair, and credible election for the three states?
The problem with the Nigerian populace is this perception of the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in an election. The challenge of our electoral system is not solely that of the commission. It is a coordination of several factors. The electoral commission is a composition of both the officials and the ad hoc staff. These ad hoc staff that serve as presiding officers on the field where elections take place are not permanent INEC staff, even though the commission takes the blame for their failures at the end of the day.
Those who rig election, as it were, those who manipulate votes, those who steal ballot boxes and destroy ballot papers, those who induce voters with money at the polling units on election day and the security men that are posted to the polling units where the election takes place are not INEC staff. But at the end of the day, everybody puts the blame for their failures and corrupt displays on INEC. It should not be. The commission only serves as an umpire. The party agents that conspire and collude to rig elections are also not INEC staff. But tragically, people believe everything that takes place during an election rises and falls with INEC. But I beg to disagree with that. And that is the tragedy for the people who serve as collation officers.
At the end of the day, you will sit down in your office, waiting for votes to be collated for you to announce. But you can only announce the votes that have been recorded and inputed on the field. As an INEC collation officer, you don’t go to the field or participate in the process on the field. In fact, you don’t have the opportunity to even vote. So it is the results that they bring from the field that you as INEC staff announce. That is why there is also a review process such that people who are not contented with the outcome of the election can seek judicial redress. That is if in the process of transmission of results from the polling unit through the wards, local government, state, and up to the national level, there are infractions, which INEC, as the umpire is not privy to, a candidate does have a right to seek redress in court.
Even in recent times, the different hearings at the various election tribunals in recent times have proven that it is not just all about INEC alone. For me, the commission is an institution that must be trusted and given its pride of place for it to function effectively. So our problem has not really been solely that of the umpire. Every major actor involved in the electoral process must be held accountable to the extent that they perform the role assigned to them diligently and faithfully. If this can be done, INEC will have little or no problem.
The case of Adamawa is very instructive. When the man decided to go against the norms and did what he did, we saw how INEC descended on him. I believe nobody in his right senses will deliberately at the level of INEC alter a result that is everywhere, right from the polling unit, through the wards and registration areas, to the local government, state, and national levels. It is not done anywhere. It can’t even be easily carried out, particularly in this golden age of ICT where people are very knowledgeable about what is going on at different times in the world. There is nowhere you want to hide to even do such without having people raising conflicting results and voices at you. So, I still believe INEC can be trusted and should be allowed to freely perform their role.
I am not saying that there are no bad eggs within the system and commission, but there are bad eggs everywhere, just like the Adamawa example that I have just cited. So, I believe that we all have that responsibility as citizens of the country to ensure the sanity of the electoral process by diligently doing what is right at the various points where the election takes place. I strongly believe that if all the anomalies that do take place from the polling units to the local government level are taken care of, INEC will have little or nothing to worry about at the end of the day.
Are you saying that most of the electoral flaws recorded during elections in Nigeria are not directly a fault of the umpire, but generally of the people?
Definitely so, because these are societal problems; nobody will set up a structure and take the same hand that he used in building it to destroy it. INEC will not do that. I have been involved in election matters since 1999 at different levels in the country. So I believe INEC will never on its own jeopardise or truncate the smooth running of the electoral process simply because of preference or loyalty to a particular candidate. In fact, if you know the logistics that go into electoral processes, you won’t even doubt the ingenuity of the commission.
I have said at many forums that an election is a process that takes place right at the polling unit, the registration areas, and the wards. It is from this point that rigging in Nigeria begins. If you do not allow the voting to take place at the polling unit as it should, all the results that will come out at the end of the day will be compromised. If the party agents collude among themselves to do the wrong thing at the polling unit, the process is already compromised at that level. Similarly, if the voters decide to sell their voting cards and rights to the highest bidder at the polling unit, they have also tampered with the credibility of the poll by so doing. So no matter what preparation a party’s candidate has put into an election, if any of the stakeholders involved in the electoral process has compromised at the polling unit level, then, don’t expect the result to be anything different. As I have said, it would be very idiotic and suicidal for anyone at the INEC office, both at the state and national level, to decide to swap an election result that has emanated from the polling units and disseminated across the country. So, it is not INEC that decides which candidate wins an election, but a compilation of the results recorded and submitted across the polling units where such an election takes place. This means that nobody rigs an election at the collation centre, but on the field. That is, if an election is going to be rigged, it won’t be within the confines of INEC, but it is on the field that the players manipulate the process and of course, the people contributing by succumbing to the manipulation of the political gladiators on the election day.
But still looking at the three November 11 elections, the governors of two of the states, Imo and Bayelsa, are seeking re-election, except for Kogi that will be seeking to elect a new governor. But do you think the incumbency factor can work in favour of the governors and ruling parties in the three states?
The history of election shows that incumbency has always been a factor, even though recently, that has also been disproved, beginning with the exit of former President Goodluck Jonathan who lost his re-election. His loss has disputed the theory that incumbency does play a defining role in the outcome of an election in Africa. Ever since 2015, we have also seen governors losing their re-election, senators failing to come back and many things like that. But in the current matter, I think it will still not just be about incumbency, but performance. The good thing about an election is that it is a means of revalidating the incumbent position of a governor before his people. If the people believe that he or she has done very well, they will revalidate that position by voting him and his party into power again. So it is left for the Bayelsa people and the Imolites, as they call themselves, to look at the states and determine whether the men on the saddle have actually done what they elected them to do in the last four years.
Meanwhile, don’t forget that, four years ago, that same Bayelsa State was almost lost by the PDP to the APC if not for other pre-election matters that disqualified the candidate of the APC. The state could have been under the APC by now. However, in 2019 when the election took place, that same Bayelsa State was also being ruled by a PDP government, which means that despite being an incumbent, the umbrella party could have lost the election if not for the pre-election matter that was thrown up at the court. So, while incumbency may play a major role, if the sitting governors have not performed creditably well in the last four years, it may not be easy for them to retain their seats.
Finally, what advice do you have for INEC as regards technological preparations and tidying up other areas that usually throw up problems and contradictions during and after the election?
Well, INEC must maintain its expected impartiality in the electoral process. Once that is done, other things will follow. But we must also not forget that the commission does not also act alone in an election. As an umpire, it is not in charge of the security of persons and equipment on Election Day. So guaranteeing the success of an election requires a collaboration of so many people and not just INEC. The commission can decide to put in place the best machinery for a successful election, but if the process is compromised by other stakeholders at the voting point, then the whole thing will become a flop. So INEC has its own role, which is to provide a structure for the election and to ensure that the materials get to the polling unit on time and that results are transmitted in a transparent and orderly manner such that the votes will count at the end of the day. Once this is done, it is now left for other players in the process to perform their role creditably well for the sake of the country’s democracy and electoral system.
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