Unpacking Saraki/PDP’s ‘feel good’ analysis

By Suleiman Ibrahim

Much of what we read these days on Kwara politics are mostly ‘feel good analyses, authored out of insufficient considerations of all variables, misunderstanding, or to paint a picture that amounts to shadow-chasing. Many of them simply do not add up.

Many of the writers had in fact written before May 2026 that Kwara APC tickets had been decided in a particular way and that the Governor was already castrated. If I were Senator Saliu Mustapha, for instance, I will be asking for a refund from these shallow writers who made him overrate himself and self-sabotage.

As far as Kwara politics is concerned this hour, the political map remains heavily tilted in favor of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq.

Except for Senator Salihu Mustapha who is himself a beneficiary of the Governor’s political support in 2023 and Amb. Yahya Seriki, whose mining business has enjoyed state patronage, 8 in 10 of the people who are up in arms against the Governor now did not support him in 2023. Yet he led the APC to a resounding victory across board.

Here was the lineup of the opposition in 2023 in the South: Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB), Senator Suleiman Makanjuola Ajadi, Gbenga Power, Saheed Popoola, and a few others. In the North, Adamu Manko, Kolo, Hon. Bio, Makama Lafiagi, and many others took up arms. In Central, Oloriegbe and his boys did not campaign for the Governor. Hon. Moshood Mustapha was half PDP, half APC as he openly worked for Atiku in 2023. Senator Gbemisola Saraki was also in the opposition against the Governor. Yet the Governor and APC won massively with the support of mostly party loyalists and the masses of the state.

Ask yourself a question: how many of the battle-tested gladiators in Saraki’s camp in 2023 are still with him today? Do the counting in the North, South, and Central. In the South, his backbones were former Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed, Hon. Gbenga Makanjuola, Sir Bisi Fakayode, and the late Rafiu Ibrahim Adebayo. The four are no longer with him, including Senator Rafiu who is now late. Who were his soldiers in the North? Prof. Gana, Hon. Ahman Patigi, Hon. Zakari Mohammed, Hon. Bio Ibrahim, and a few others who have since left for other political parties, except for Hon. Ahman Pategi who is now late.

It is worse in Central, where several of the field commanders have since left: Bolaji Abdullahi, Hon. Bibire Ajape, Hon. Razaq Lawal, Engr. Musa Yeketi, Hon. Amuda Kannike, among several others.

READ ALSO: Kwara 2027: The chess game of Saraki’s PDP and AbdulRazaq’s APC

So emaciated is the Saraki dynasty that more than 70% of its electoral tickets are held by inconsequential placeholders who have self-confessed to holding the ticket pending when more suitable candidates will be attracted. In other words, Saraki’s political platform is at the mercy of potential defectors, including APC’s G15.

I have laughed myself to stupor over one analysis of how PDP seeks to distribute its tickets. A careful analysis of the tickets, if true, shows how naive some people could be. It is not my business to point out the errors. But is it really an error or the PDP/Saraki simply doesn’t have anything more viable? If the analysis is correct, more than 70% of its ticket holders will be persons who were not PDP members as of today, at least in public knowledge. It says a lot if more than two-thirds of your tickets are without viable holders as of today. So much for being ready for election when your competitors are more than 40% ahead of you.

Apart from the issues of G15 members whose potential entry into PDP will come with its own life-threatening migraine in PDP, I fail to see any bright opening for PDP/Saraki in the coming polls. Whether in financial war chest or record of achievements, Saraki does not stand a chance in this coming election. Those waiting to restore his ‘dynastic’ rule can wait till another election cycle. I’m sure Saraki knows he is hardly a factor in the coming election. There is time for everything. Today’s sun, if hardcore political analysis is anything to go by, doesn’t have Saraki written in its shine.

And for G15, I wait to see how the National HQ of the APC and the President will receive their bitter brand of politics when they are openly rebelling against the decision of the National Working Committee of the party which decided who flies its ticket at all levels. Their rebellion is not against the Governor, as they tried to portray; it is against the President who I’m certain has listened to their accounts of the issues and yet stands by the decision of the party. G15’s pledge of votes to the President is a deceit and the Villa knows it.

▪︎ Suleiman writes from Ilorin East