Donald Trump’s recent tariff threat has dramatically altered the course of Canada’s upcoming election, turning what once seemed like a straightforward victory for the opposition Conservatives into an increasingly uncertain contest.
According to Reuters analysis, for 18 months, Pierre Poilievre’s right-leaning Conservatives maintained a double-digit lead over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, capitalising on voter dissatisfaction and accusing Trudeau of “breaking Canada” after nearly a decade in power.
However, two major developments—the prime minister’s resignation announcement last month and Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on all Canadian imports—have upended the race.
“When you look at the changes over the past four weeks, it’s basically a whole new world… the big change is Trump,” said Nik Nanos, founder of the Nanos Research polling firm.
A recent Nanos poll showed the Conservatives leading with 39% support, while the Liberals trailed at 32%. Such a result on election day could leave the Conservatives short of a parliamentary majority, potentially leading to a fragile minority government.
A minority administration could leave Canada’s next government struggling to manage key issues such as energy policy, natural resources, and trade relations with its largest economic partner—the United States.
In an attempt to shift the narrative, the Liberals have sought to highlight similarities between Poilievre and Trump, releasing an advert on Sunday that draws direct comparisons between the two leaders.
The 35-second video, opening with the question, “How can you speak for Canada when you sound like Donald Trump?” features clips of both men making near-identical statements.
The Conservatives have yet to respond to the advert, but Poilievre has received notable praise from Trump ally Elon Musk, who last month voiced his support for the Conservative leader on his X social media platform.
Meanwhile, Trudeau’s Immigration Minister, Marc Miller, dismissed Poilievre’s campaign rhetoric, stating, “You can’t say that Canada is broken, and at the same time say that Canada is the best country in the world. The two just don’t go together.”
Before Trudeau’s departure, the Conservatives had focused their campaign on ousting the prime minister and opposing his proposed federal carbon tax increase.
But with Trudeau stepping aside, the race has taken a new turn. His potential successors, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and ex-central banker, Mark Carney, have both pledged to scrap the tax while taking a tough stance against Trump’s trade threats.
“Canadians have put what happened before out of their minds … which has created an opportunity for the Liberals to resuscitate themselves through a leadership contest,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.
With the election set to take place by October 20, both parties now face a dramatically altered playing field—one where Trump’s influence may prove decisive.
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