Economic data forms the foundation for informed policymaking, investment decisions, and sustainable development planning. Recognising this, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has undertaken a rigorous and commendable process to rebase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This crucial exercise will provide a more accurate and updated representation of the country’s economic structure. The rebasing initiative follows the recent release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key indicator of inflationary trends that helps shape fiscal and monetary policies.
With meticulous data collection, extensive stakeholder engagement, and adherence to global best practices, the NBS ensures that the GDP rebasing process is methodologically sound and genuinely reflective of Nigeria’s dynamic economic landscape. This meticulous approach should reassure you of the accuracy of the rebased GDP, reinforcing confidence in the nation’s statistical framework.
GDP rebasing involves updating the base year used to calculate an economy’s size and composition. Nigeria last conducted this exercise in 2014, when the reference year was shifted from 1990 to 2010. This recalibration revealed that the economy was significantly more extensive and diverse than previously estimated, with GDP surging from $270 billion to $510 billion. As a result, Nigeria emerged as Africa’s largest economy at the time.
Over the years, profound structural changes have occurred, driven by technological advancements, the expansion of telecommunications and financial services, and the rapid growth of the informal sector. Rebasing is imperative for effectively capturing these transformations and ensuring that economic policies are based on up-to-date and accurate data.
Under Dr. Semiu Adeniran’s leadership, the NBS has intensified its efforts to enhance the accuracy and integrity of economic statistics by employing advanced data collection techniques. The agency has also broadened its survey scope to ensure that key economic activities, including those in the informal sector, are adequately accounted for.
As part of this initiative, the NBS has deployed digital data collection tools, enabling real-time tracking of economic activities. In addition, it has forged collaborations with sectoral regulators such as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to obtain verified industry-specific data. Furthermore, the agency has expanded its survey sample to include previously underrepresented sectors, such as e-commerce, fintech, and the gig economy.
Through these strategic measures, the NBS reinforces the credibility of Nigeria’s economic data, ensuring that the GDP rebasing exercise produces a comprehensive and accurate assessment of the nation’s economic realities. The NBS’s commitment to transparency should instil confidence in the reliability of the rebased GDP, presenting a clearer picture of Nigeria’s true economic potential.
In preparation for the GDP rebasing, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has maintained its commitment to transparency by consistently publishing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation data. The latest CPI report, released in February 2024, revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 29.90% in January 2024 from 28.92% in December 2023, driven primarily by rising food prices. This diligent monitoring of inflation trends offers valuable insights into household consumption patterns, a crucial component of GDP calculations. By aligning inflation data with GDP estimates, the NBS ensures that macroeconomic planning remains data-driven and responsive to prevailing economic conditions.
The NBS is conducting the rebasing exercise under international best practices to enhance credibility further and facilitate global comparability. The methodology follows guidelines established by key global institutions, including the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the African Development Bank (AfDB). These standards strengthen Nigeria’s economic credibility and reassure international investors who depend on reliable macroeconomic indicators for strategic decision-making.
A crucial aspect of the NBS’s approach is its proactive engagement with stakeholders across various sectors. The bureau has worked closely with government agencies such as the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning and private sector organisations, including the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, fintech companies, and the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association. This proactive engagement should make you feel included in the GDP rebasing process, fostering a broader understanding of its implications.
Beyond updating existing economic indicators, the NBS is also expanding the scope of Nigeria’s GDP to reflect the realities of a modern and evolving economy. The 2014 rebasing exercise brought previously underrepresented sectors, such as Nollywood and telecommunications, into the economic framework. In this latest rebasing, the NBS is set to incorporate even more emerging industries, ensuring that Nigeria’s GDP accurately captures the nation’s dynamic economic landscape.
Nigeria’s economic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with new GDP figures set to capture key sectors that reflect the country’s evolving financial and industrial dynamics. Fintech and digital banking are reshaping financial services, offering innovative solutions that drive financial inclusion and efficiency. The rapid expansion of e-commerce and online retail platforms underscores a shift in consumer behaviour, with digital transactions becoming more prevalent.
Meanwhile, the renewable energy sector and the broader green economy are gaining traction, positioning Nigeria as a player in sustainable development. The creative industries continue to thrive, including music streaming and digital content creation, showcasing the nation’s rich cultural output on global platforms. By incorporating these sectors, the rebased GDP will provide a more comprehensive representation of Nigeria’s economic transformation.
The anticipated impact of this GDP rebasing is multifaceted. First, it is expected to attract foreign investments by offering a clearer picture of Nigeria’s market size and growth potential. With revised figures highlighting opportunities in emerging sectors, investor confidence will likely strengthen, fostering more significant capital inflows. Additionally, more precise GDP data will aid in refining fiscal and monetary policies. Institutions such as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Ministry of Finance will be better equipped to craft policies that balance inflation control, interest rate adjustments, and budget planning.
Beyond domestic policy improvements, the rebasing will enhance Nigeria’s global economic positioning. With updated GDP figures, the country could see a rise in global economic rankings, influencing international trade agreements, credit ratings, and foreign collaborations. Furthermore, reliable economic metrics will empower policymakers at both state and federal levels, enabling them to make informed decisions on infrastructure development, social programs, and poverty alleviation strategies.
The National Bureau of Statistics’ commitment to accuracy, transparency, and international best practices in GDP rebasing marks a commendable step toward economic excellence. As Nigeria prepares to unveil its new figures, the meticulous work carried out by the NBS ensures that economic policies and investment strategies are grounded in reliable data. The NBS is setting a benchmark for economic data management across Africa through technological innovation, stakeholder engagement, and methodical data collection. The rebased GDP will reflect Nigeria’s evolving economic reality and reinforce its status as a leading economic force on the continent. This initiative is a testament to the NBS’s unwavering dedication to providing credible statistics that drive sustainable growth, cementing its reputation as a nationally and internationally model institution.
Modupe, a public policy analyst, sent this piece from Abuja.
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