As the political crisis plaguing Rivers State climaxed during the week, a professor of Political Economy/Development Studies and Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Port Harcourt (UNIPORT), Johnson Nna, speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on the tense political atmosphere in the state, the implication of the protracted issue and what remains the only feasible political solution.
In the last few weeks, Rivers State has been on edge due to the protracted and bitter dispute between the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara, and the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesome Wike. What is your assessment of the political situation in the state?
It is very saddening, but we had expected it to happen. It is saddening in the sense that in the past 23 years in Rivers State, we have been going through more and more dictatorial rules, which climaxed during Wike’s administration. In 2019, Wike singlehandedly sponsored all the executive members in the state… including the governor himself. And he could do this because up till this minute, he remains the richest man in the state [and mot powerful]. And it was with this whole power that he solely sponsored the election of Governor Fubara. That is why he has been trying to exercise too much control and influence over the governor since the beginning of the new administration in the state. But then, I fear that with the current political situation, the state may likely be going back to what happened in 1999 when armed gangs were ruling the state. That is my fear and it is not even safe for Nigeria.
In the past eight years, many companies have left Port Harcourt. You can hardly see any big company functioning any longer in the state capital that used to be a big industrial hub. And it is because of insecurity. But with this development now, it is believed that more companies and investments will also be taken out of the state, and the poverty rate will soar greatly therein.
Meanwhile, there is a growing fear in the state that the crisis may take another dangerous twist anytime soon. This is because Governor Fubara is from the Ijaw part, while Wike is from the Ikwerre side. As it stands now, the Ijaws are scared that they may likely lose power should Fubara be booted out of office. So, it is apparent that ethnic conflict is brewing again.
If you look closely, you will see that prominent Ijaw leaders like Chief Edwin Clark and others have been supporting the governor, asking President Bola Tinubu to call Wike to order. In the same vein, we have also seen leaders on the Ikwerre’s side also speaking in support of Wike. So the state is obviously in for trouble as ethnic warfare looms in it.
Looking at the background, it will be recalled that since 1999, there has been an increasing descent into authoritarianism in the state, as politicians resorted to maximising their control of the political process by all means necessary. Cases of murder of key political figures in the state between 1999 and 2007 attest to this ugly trend. It further resulted in the use of militant gangs such as those headed by Asari Dokubo and Ateke Tom, who were later engulfed in rivalry and armed conflicts, further deepening insecurity and underdevelopment.
At that time, Rotimi Amaechi was the Speaker of the State House of Assembly and Wike was the chairman of Obio/Akpor Local Government Area, the largest LGA in the state and perhaps the richest council area in Nigeria. People still think that he partly sponsored Amaechi’s rise to power. Wike became Amaechi’s chief of staff, a position that strategically placed him in a vantage position to interact freely with political actors across the state.
Against the expectation of power rotation, Wike as a federal minister was able to upstage his principal and succeed Amaechi as governor. With all the resources at his disposal, Wike became the strongest man politically in Rivers State.
As a governor, his access to resources was further enhanced and his position as a political machine was further strengthened. He was able to build a cult of fellowship that surpassed all previous governors put together. In the 2023 elections, Wike sponsored the election of all PDP aspirants from top to bottom. He was indeed the most powerful politician in Rivers State. When he talks of structure, he refers to his control of councillors, local government chairmen, members of the State House of Assembly, the governor, and members of the National Assembly, etc.
Wike sponsored the election of the current state governor, not out of love, but because of his interest and self-preservation. Fubara was the finance officer when Wike was a local government chairman. Fubara was pulled out to the Government House by Wike to be his chief of staff. Later, Wike made Fubara a permanent secretary, and then the Accountant General of the state, after which he singlehandedly made him the governor. The logic was that as long as Fubara had immunity, Wike would be free from the law.
However, with Wike’s closeness to President Tinubu, there was a more formidable insurance policy than Fubara’s immunity. With the Federal power behind him, the former Rivers governor believes his ultimate survival now rests on the control of his political structure in the state, which he obviously cannot entrust to a political successor no matter his numeric strength.
In a nutshell, Wike is an absolute ruler and the current events in Rivers State are the heights of the descent into authoritarianism. The ultimate end is conflict, and of course, insecurity, capital flight, and underdevelopment.
Given the fact that Governor Fubara used to be one of the most trusted allies of Wike, what exactly will you say caused the breakdown in his relationship with the FCT minister?
Well, as I have said earlier, Fubara was brought in not because Wike loved him like that. Governor Fubara had been with the FCT minister since 1999. He had initially served him before Wike became the governor. And even during Wike’s reign as governor, Fubara was at the centre of all his financial management and deployment of state resources. So, the fear was that if Fubara was not made a governor, he wouldn’t have any immunity and would be susceptible to arrest by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and likely expose Wike. That was the fear. But now that Wike has [the ear] of the president, he feels more secure to let go of Fubara. That is the situation. So, I will say the intention of Wike to continue to rule the state triggered the crisis.
Secondly, when the noose Wike was pulling over Fubara became too much and unbearable, some Ijaw leaders who are Fubara’s brothers rose to embolden him in a bid to act and be more assertive in the state. This was what brought about the recent decisive moves the governor has smartly taken in defiance of the influence of his aggrieved godfather.
What do you think may be the likely implication of the political crisis?
Firstly, as I have said, more investors may likely leave the state. Don’t forget that the state’s internally generated revenue (IGR) used to be one of the highest in the country after Lagos. So, should the ongoing crisis force more investments out of the state, what do you think will happen to the state’s development? Secondly, many people will thereafter run into their ethnic enclaves, which may worsen the already troubling security situation of the state. In simple terms, once governance fails or falls, insecurity rises and development falters.
However, earlier on Thursday, the Federal Minister of Information and National Orientation, Idris Malagi, absolved the Tinubu’s government of involvement in the Rivers State crisis, saying the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led government has no hand in it. President Tinubu had once intervened in the dispute when he summoned both Governor Fubara and Wike to the Aso Villa. But it seems as if the president’s intervention didn’t resolve the issue as recent developments have shown. Why is it so?
Well, there is a script being played out by the Federal Government to make Rivers an APC state. And being a strong man in the state, Wike is trusted to deliver the goods. His contribution was crucial for the victory of the party in the 2023 Presidential election. Rivers was the only state in the South-South secured by the APC and with massive votes. Wike is, therefore, regarded as a treasure by Tinubu’s administration. Thus, making Wike the minister of the FCT is not seen as an adequate compensation, because it is believed that securing his political base or structure will also be an added compensation.
To me, Tinubu’s intervention at the initial stage of the conflict was only a gimmick to show that something was being done and a strategy to buy time for the process of consolidation to take place. If truly the president intervened, why then is the crisis [festering] now? Meanwhile, don’t forget that soon after the supposed intervention, the APC stakeholders, including Amaechi’s loyalists, moved to Abuja to pledge solidarity with Wike. Thereafter, the state executive was dissolved. This was followed by the defection of 27 members of the state legislature who were elected on the platform of the PDP to the APC.
Despite the declaration of their defection as illegal by a Federal High Court with an injunction never to assemble in addition to the declaration of their seats as vacant, the lawmakers have continued to meet and pass resolutions unrestrained by neither the courts, the security agencies nor has the National Assembly taken over the crisis-ridden state assembly. The question is why were the embattled 27 lawmakers not arrested when they met on Thursday at their quarters if truly the Federal Government is sincere and not being biased in the whole saga? The government has simply been looking the other way, pretending that the situation is normal.
Meanwhile, when there is a crisis in a state assembly, the NASS will take charge. So why hasn’t the Godwill Akpabio’s 10th NASS acted decisively on the state assembly matter? We are all waiting for the final onslaught, the planned impeachment of Governor Fubara, which of course is given. In all, I worry that the governor will be eventually thrown out and APC will take over the state.
Since the Speaker of the State Assembly has declared the seat of the 27 lawmakers vacant, do you think they still have any legitimacy to hold any sitting in the state, even where there is a subsisting court order they haven’t appealed?
Well, they shouldn’t. But they sat on Thursday. And they were not arrested. They had a full-house sitting. The legislators led by Martin Amaewhule met at the auditorium of the House of Assembly Quarters on Aba Road, Port Harcourt, a sequel to the demolition of the Assembly building by the state government. They even passed some bills into law and condemned the demolition of the Assembly by Governor Fubara. They will plan to sit again, since they are the majority and impeach the governor. They believe that with the control of the judiciary under the ruling party in the country which they have defected to, their bid will likely go through. So, as far as I am concerned, the governor is simply fighting a lost battle, because he is having the minority behind him. Come to think of it, aside from the 27 lawmakers, all the local government chairmen in the state were appointed by Wike.
So what do you think is the political solution?
The solution is beyond Rivers State itself. Already the elders within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state are divided as the majority of them are with Wike. It is just a handful of youths agitating now that are on Fubara’s side. Don’t forget that the so-called structure in the state is owned by Wike. That’s why there hasn’t been a united front to fight the minister’s influence in the state. Governor Fubara is just hanging in the balance unless the federal government takes a forceful stand to support him, which I doubt will happen.
Meanwhile, both the Commissioners for Social Welfare, Inime Aguma, and Finance, Isaac Kamalu, on Thursday evening, joined other two commissioners to resign from Fubara’s cabinet. What do you think has fuelled the resignation spree?
This is not unexpected. Out of 15 state commissioners, 14 were imposed on the governor from the previous government. The commissioners were those who served during Wike’s administration. So their loyalty was not to Fubara but to Wike. Out of all the commissioners, Fubara brought in only one person, which is a woman from his town. She is the current commissioner for women’s affairs. But what do you think will happen when a governor cannot be allowed to appoint his commissioners? There will surely be problems. The same thing will happen when a sitting governor cannot appropriate the resources within his state. It will be recalled that the Ring Road project that will gulp about N200 billion was Wike’s project. But it was handed over to Governor Fubara to execute, while the man in charge of the project was Wike’s brother. That is just to show you the extent of the control over Fubara. So the governor’s kinsmen, having closely observed the trend, sat him down and fuelled his gun to assert his constitutional power in the state by all means.
Consequently, as of Thursday, four commissioners have resigned from the governor’s cabinet. As the situation worsens, many more may likely resign or be pulled out by their benefactor. The strategy is to weaken the governor and make him vulnerable to impeachment. Should a new government be put in place after the appeal of the High Court judgment and the eventual impeachment of the governor, the resigned commissioners would be re-employed.
Who then do you think may be given the mantle of leadership to rule the state if Fubara is eventually impeached?
The Federal government didn’t support the APC candidate in the election nor his going to the tribunal. There are talks in the state that the fate of Fubara is hanging in the balance and should Tonye Cole proceed to the Supreme Court, given what is playing out against Fubara, Cole might be given victory, and being an Ijaw himself, this might balance out the ethnic problem.
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