Ogun West’s eye on 2019

The people of Ogun West Senatorial District in the Gateway state are already warming up to deploy their numerical strength in support of one of their own in the race for the Government House in Abeokuta come 2019. TUNDE BUSARI examines the issues as the race to determine who succeeds Governor Ibukunle Amosun unfolds.

hile the race to Ogun State 2019 gubernatorial election is gradually gathering momentum among aspirants across political parties, there is no debate in the fact that the acclaimed Gateway State will witness a fierce contest this time.

Unarguably, there is the growing popular view among the politicians in the state is in favour of the successor to Governor Ibikunle Amosun emerging from Ogun West senatorial district, the only district that is yet to produce a governor in the 41 years history of the state.

Ogun East has produced the late Chief Olabisi Onabanjo (1979-1983) and Otunba Gbenga Daniel (2003-2007) while Ogun Central has in its record, Chief Olusegun Osoba, (1991-1993),  and (1999-2003) and the incumbent, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, (2011-2019).

The ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) looks every inch set to consolidate its hold on power, especially in view of the disunity rocking the other opposition parties and as a result of what some have termed the massive physical development Governor Amosun had brought to bear on the state.

Thus with the level of goodwill the party is currently enjoying, interested aspirants have been flocking around the ruling APC, rather than the main opposition platform, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has shown no sign of mending its cracked fence.

In view of this political reality, a strong list of the APC aspirants from Ogun West District is already on the table and each is a force to reckon with, in terms of political antecedent in the state and beyond.

The gladiators include but not limited to the Chief of Staff to Governor Amosun, Chief Tolu Odebiyi, the incumbent Speaker of Ogun State House of Assembly, Hon. Suraj Ishola Adekunbi, Senator Iyabo Anisulowo and Senator Solomon Adeola (Yayi).

Although history has it that both Ogun East and Central Districts are adept in forming alliance through which either of them produces governor, the quest for equity, justice and trust among all the districts should make the shift from the old order inevitable in  the 2019 elections.

One important factor which political analysts have since identified as the clog in the wheel of Ogun West District in the power equation is its consistent failure to reach consensus on its choice of candidate. For instance, the district in the 2011 governorship election, had two of its sons contesting against each other. General Adetunji Olurin (Rtd) of PDP and Isiaka Nasiru of Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN). The duo practically shared the votes thereby denying the district the bloc vote advantage needed to break the governorship jinx.

Reasons adduced for the zone’s failure to explore its numerical strength is that the political actors are too independent minded. Some say that many contestants were driven by the spirit of self- interest at the expense of the collective interest of their home people.

“Going by the body language so far shown by His Excellency, who is known as a promoter of justice and fairness, Ogun West people should just prepare their home well to have the opportunity this time. The governor loves to do new things for the record as we have all seen in the transformation he has brought to the state.

“I have no doubt in my mind that he would change his mind from supporting the aspiration of Ogun West people. But the zone needs to put its house in order. The aspirants should work for the interest of their zone. If they fail to make sacrifice and harmonies their interests for a collective purpose, they may not have it again,” a member of the ruling party who did not want his name in print said at a close gathering recently.

However, the electorate in the zone appears to have learnt some useful lessons in the previous failed attempts as they now appear determined to give it all it takes to win the coveted seat this time. Although it would be difficult to shove any of the aspirants aside it is equally undeniable that some aspirants have some edge than others. For instance, you cannot gloss over the fact that some aspirants are stronger than the other in terms of resources to contest, right contacts and capacity to improve on the landmark of the past six years.

If Nigeria’s contemporary political calculation is anything to consider, the role of incumbent governor in the emergence of his successor cannot be underrated. From 1999 when the Fourth Republic took off,  to date, state governors across the federation usually maintain a strong influence in the determining how a successor emerges. There could have been a few exceptions. We saw the failure of former Governor of the state, Otunba Gbenga Daniel to have his preferred candidate, Isiaka Nasiru succeeding him, we also saw Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo state of Ondo state sustaining defeat in his bid to see Chief Eyitayo Jegede succeed him, but the governors have generally been successful in that regard.

It has also been said that a united PDP family in Ogun (under Gbenga Daniel) and Ondo State (the Mimiko scenario), would have made the states impregnable and shut the doors against the APC.

This point therefore means the incumbent governor of Ogun State, Senator Amosun still holds the ace on who emerges the party’s flag bearer and consequently his successor. Of course, as the leader of the party, he is the father of all aspirants and he must be seen as such.

However, this status cannot and will not rob him his right to his self-determination. He must have a preference in whom he reposes highest percentage of confidence. That is why political followers are looking at the direction of Odebiyi who has done so well in managing the governor’s affairs and lifted heavy workload off him.

Many are of the view that Odebiyi’s experience, first as the son of the late politician, Senator Jonathan Odebiyi and secondly as a successful technocrat, may work for him when the chips are down. He is seen as a pleasant politician whose tentacles spread across all the senatorial districts, an attribute that could make him a true bridge builder among other aspirants.

The Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikiru Adetona is reputed for his loyalty to friends. He is a known ally of the late Senator Odebiyi and the Chief of Staff stands to benefit hugely from such a relationship when the elections come in 2019.

A holder of Bachelor of Science degree in Building Construction and Engineering Technology from Wentworth Institute of Technology, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America (USA), Odebiyi’s profile in property development and investment is also an invaluable asset which Ogun State could tap into to complete the ongoing physical infrastructure projects in the state.

Besides this is his passion for philanthropic gesture through his ‘Alajobi’ project. Many indigent citizens of the state, regardless of their party affiliations, are beneficiaries of Odebiyi’s empowerment resulting in rescuing them from the jaws of poverty.

It thus looks like Odebiyi is one of the most prepared for the task at hand. But he needs to be reminded of the dynamism of Nigerian politics, a factor which means he should not fall into the pit of complacence.

Rather than over relying on his closeness to the incumbent governor and power permutation, he should gravitate towards other aspirants and engage them in intellectual discourse with a view to seeing the possibility of working together for the total benefit of Ogun West District.

This may look utopian, it is possible if Odebiyi can mobilise the right people in the state for the task. It goes without saying that the likes of Senator Olamilekan Adeola (Yayi) with his record in Lagos politics, Senator Iyabo Anisulowo, also a close ally of Governor Amosun, among others are not pushovers in the game and they can change the tide.

One thing, however, is becoming quite obvious: Ogun West Senatorial District could witness a new history come 2019. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo is also said to be favourably disposed to the project and by all standards, the former Nigerian President is one of the key personalities the zone can reckon with to achieve the set target.