Dr Aaron Ogundiwin, an associate professor of political science, speaks with WALE AKINSELURE, on the nation’s electoral system and the 2023 election.
What is your assessment of how our politicking has evolved and progressed over the years, especially as we approach the 2023 general election? How close are we to the practice of developmental politics as done in developed countries?
If we look at Nigeria as a country, though we are not stationary, we are not making swift progress as the giant of Africa, our politics is still monetised; there are pockets of vote buying, ballot snatching, political thuggery; the independent electoral umpire is not backed by law to bring those people who engage in those things to book. But, with the promise that votes will count by making sure that when you cast your ballot, it goes to the central unit where Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and everybody can access. To that extent, you will say we have taken a step further and we have seen how it was deployed in Ekiti and Osun states elections. But, that is not the progress that we should jubilate about. Kenya just conducted its general election and there was litigation and within few days, judgment was delivered. They did not need to spend months because as far as technology is concerned, they have gone ahead of Nigeria. Though Kenya is the biggest economy in Eastern Africa but we are the giant of Africa; we are the population super power and we have a lot of intellectuals in all areas of endeavour. Due to some things that are subjective, all these resources are not put at the disposal of the Nigerian State to benefit from. I shouldn’t see any reason why there should be a public holiday because of election. I shouldn’t see any reason you shouldn’t cast your vote on your way to work or send your ballot by courier. There is no reason for a kind of state of emergency, movement restriction. All these things are not good for Nigeria and we need to improve on that. We are making progress though like a snail. We should walk and run faster than we are doing, at least to launder the image of Nigeria as the giant of Africa as far as democratic politics is concerned.
For the 2023 general election, what should Nigerians look out for in making choices? We have already experienced both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). To what extent should they look at political parties or the candidates they throw up?
The world was caught by surprise that the leading vanguard of democracy in the world could throw up somebody like Donald Trump. We have several political parties but we should look at candidates as against the parties. The PDP and APC are still ruling because we have defectors here and there. We must be able to look at individuals, profile them, hold them accountable, ask them what they want to do in the key sectors of the Nigerian economy, how do they want to do it and where do they want to get the resources to do it. For example, there is no reason APC should win the presidential election, if we talk along party lines. This is because the change it promised is here actually; we thought it will be a positive one but it is a negative one at the central level. It has been said of APC that the only thing it has democratised is insecurity, unemployment, Nigerian currency chasing the dollar, it is the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) being on strike. As a political party, that should be a failure ab initio. But, we don’t throw away the baby with the bath water. We must look at individual and the capacity that they have. I, personally, support individuals as against political parties without asking that I should be mobilised for anything. It is a matter of punishing us. I am well educated to know my civic responsibilities and not to be despondent at any time regardless of discouragement that these political elites bring our way as ordinary citizens. There are other political parties like Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), who are also gunning to produce the president. So, we must look at individuals, ask them critical questions, ask them for deliverables. Don’t just come to say that you’ll give free education, allowances at university, you’ll defeat Boko Haram. APC is struggling with oil theft. Rather than look at political parties, I will advice Nigerians to look at candidates and see whether an ideal one can be selected from them.
How do you assess the capacity of INEC to improve on its performance in the Osun and Ekiti elections in the 2023 general election?
INEC may not be able to do more than what the law is allowing it to do as far as vote buying is concerned. I think it will need to partner with other electoral management bodies, the police, civil defence, Department of State Services (DSS) and other uniformed agencies to, before election, be deployed to see who is sharing money. What they are doing now is where you know that you have supporters, you actually do not need to so spend much money. You go to where your opponent is stronger and are illiterate and pose to be their own political party. Imagine party A is going to party B’s territory and pretending to be party B and asking that they should surrender their voter card and pay them that on the election day, it will be released to them. Some people were said to do that from the news we got in Osun and Ekiti. You know the politicians in Nigeria are next in rank to Satan when it comes to craftiness. As you put a law in place, they are 10 miles ahead of you to make sure that what they want happens. I will want INEC to ensure that the electronic transfer of result is well secure and that bandwidth should be deployed to places we do not have strong network.
We give kudos to INEC for the Osun and Ekiti elections. If you have deployed some DSS people, intelligent officers, you can mingle with the people and find who is buying votes. Also, political party members do pay dues, they hold their meetings, they have their register, unfortunately, those things are disappearing. Nowadays, anybody is a party member once you come with money. Do they know you to your ward? How many meetings have you attended? Do they know you to your local government? You just come from somewhere with a bag of money and you join a political party because you’re interested in some position.
What is your take on autonomy of local government and having state independent electoral commissions continuously conducting local council elections?
Whatever the electoral management body is, whether the state-owned or INEC, we all listened to the late deputy president of the Senate, Alhaji Ibrahim Mantu who talked about how he was used to rig elections many times and that now he had changed. The former governor of Cross River state, Donald Duke also talked about how elections are rigged. Once you are posted as resident electoral commissioner and pay a courtesy call on the governor, that election is already rigged. There was another governor caught on audio who had put money in the pocket of electoral workers, commissioners and one was complaining that the area he or she has to cover is too large and would need more money. Those proving stubborn are threatened and that has been the tradition over the years. If people can go out of their way to do things in the name of government, not expecting profit, not contractors, you can imagine how any individual that that governor presents as chairmanship candidate will perform during election. The electoral management bodies at the national and state level must be above board. They are not there yet but I believe with what we are doing, they are also alert to their responsibilities and are changing gradually. We must watch any governor who is about to leave power conducting local government election, when you know you have lost election, increasing the salary of workers, creating more institutions, we know it is problems that you are creating. We are yet to have enough people who believe in the project Nigeria and who believe in their state. Local government autonomy is dicey. If you give autonomy to the local government, it is like a confederal system in this Nigeria economy. In such system, the centre is weak and the component is very strong. By the time you give autonomy, everywhere is local government, where will the state be? Except each local government is economically viable such like the federal government is enjoying, not fully, then you can talk of local government autonomy, at least, the local government will have what they contribute to the state that the state will use in the interest of all the local governments. By the time you give local government autonomy, there is no state governor again, because all the roads that are state roads are local roads linking one local government to another. Our level of literacy has not reached that point. How many of our local government chairmen are like us? Can they account for the little they are getting? They are only collecting levies and taxes and wait for what state governors will give them. We will get local government autonomy as we progress; thank God democracy has not been interrupted since 1999.
Some political observers foresee a three-horse race in the Oyo governorship race, that is the incumbent governor Seyi Makinde against Senator Teslim Folarin of the APC and Chief Adebayo Adelabu of Accord party. How do you see things panning out in the next Oyo governorship election?
Indigenes and non-indigenes of the state and those from other countries in Africa can see that three horses are not running anywhere, it is only one horse that is running to 2023 to 2027; that horse is healthy, that horse is not tired; that horse is from the strongest breed and that individual is His Excellency, Engineer Oluseyi Makinde. One question you need to ask those horses that I cannot see is who is challenging them? Is he saying they shouldn’t wait until after 2027? Or is there anything that he is not doing right that they want to correct? Are they able to come with one thing to question how well he has used the resources available to him? Is it infrastructure? Can they account for how much is budgeted to that annually and the deliverables over the past three years? Is it creation of employment? Is it payment of workers’ salaries and 13th month salary? Is it promotion of workers including teachers to the peak of their career? Let them name just one thing that they think he is not doing right that they want to correct. Is it on security? Is it the management of the volatile chieftaincy arrangement in Ibadan land? Is it sharing his powers with those who joined hands together to put him in power in 2019? What do they want to come and do in 2023 that they feel the current governor cannot go further? I am sure that the voters in Oyo State are wiser than before. We need to begin to profile anybody who is contemplating to come to power. What has been his antecedents? Everyone joining in the single horse race are warming up against 2027 which will also be tighter for them if Makinde continues the good work he has been doing. When you have done a very good work and you’re raising the hand of another person to ask for votes, people will do that. You cannot use religion. Check his own cabinet, ministries, you cannot say the state is for one religion. They say politicians are incurable optimists. I have the premonition that Makinde will come back to the seat in 2023 to continue the good work because four years are not enough for him.
As much as you may laud the Makinde government, there are areas that leave much to be desired like blown off school roofs, ineffective waste management, deplorable roads, inadequate and ill-equipped primary health care centres.
Even Governor Seyi Makinde rated himself 65 percent, about a year ago, that was conservative enough. You have someone who is not arrogant, not looking for power at all cost. For him to have managed resources at a time of COVID-19, when others are closing shop, and scored himself 65 percent, is commendable. Presently, I give him A and an A in my university starts from 80, another university is 70. Of course, this is a human gathering and he cannot be perfect, there are areas you will need to improve on certain things. Of course, environment is dirty, trash is finding its way back to our roads but as far as inner roads is concerned, I can say work he promised has started. What he has to do now is to make intrastate movement easier by filling potholes where road constructions are not needed. For example, an arrangement is being made between Oyo and Osun state governments on the road from Iwo Road to Iwo to make it passable. If he promised it, I believe he will do it. This is an administration that has done a lot in a single term of four years and I give him A grade. Out of over 300 PHCs that we have in electoral wards in Oyo State, he has completed 200 in less than three years. Do you know some people are so encouraged by what Makinde is doing and they are taking out their own money to do things in their own villages. They did not have a single roof in my former secondary school for eight years and it was my group to roof that school because he likes what the governor is doing.
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