An elder statesman and scholar with variegated experience in public service, international relations and so on, Professor Tunde Adeniran, was at different times Nigeria’s Ambassador to Germany and Minister of Education. The scholar-diplomat-politician gives his views on the administration of President Bola Tinubu, the ministerial nominees, the decision of use force in Niger, among other matters, in this interview with DARE ADEKANMBI.
How would you describe some of the steps taken so far by President Bola Tinubu?
I am a scholar. I don’t jump into conclusions on things until I have done sufficient inquiry. To me, the policies have not come out in a way for one to really sit and do some analysis. If you mean policies, you are talking about either fuel subsidy or whatever. I think subsidy to Nigerians was a big fraud. But then it was really scandalous and very much against the health of the Nigerian economy. In different countries, there are subsidies in one form or the other. But then they are done in a transparent and meaningful way that they will add value to the quality of lives of the citizenry. But what we had was a big scam and so had to be removed. But in removing it, government must be very careful about what work it has to do on how the intended and unintended consequences are managed. I feel that there are certain things that were promised during the campaign which people are now looking forward to. I believe that, even at this stage, so much needs to be done to save the lives of the Nigerian people and that of the nation. So, generally, until the policies begin to be rolled out, that is when one will be able to make an objective analysis.
Does it surprise you that since subsidy on petrol was yanked off, there has been no word from government on what is going to happen to the refineries, whether to privatise or revitalise them? So much noise was made about the Dangote refinery which the owner said would start production by July. Without refining fuel locally, there is no way the price can come down as long as we continue to import the product.
Well, the point that has been made that Nigerians have been taken for granted by Dangote is not surprising. But what is worrisome is the role of our elected representatives. When you see the situation that we are in the country, this is the time that one would expect that those people [federal and state lawmakers] who are supposedly representing the people will rise up and say, “look, you cannot take our people for granted and treat them as if they are in a captured territory and you are going to continue to enslave them.” So many things happen that you just begin to wonder what has happened to this country. Where are we going? Even before the Nigerian people begin to raise voices and ask Dangote and others some questions, the representatives of the people who are there in the national and state assemblies ought to have been asking questions and even calling some people to question. They should rise up for the people. But we have seen that they are more interested in seeking palliatives for themselves than looking after the interest of the people. It is very worrisome and I don’t think Nigerians deserve that kind of treatment. When promises are made, they have to be kept. And like I said the other time about the subsidy removal, Nigerians are waiting to see the total package of the palliatives. Nigerians want to hear information about the refineries and so on. The federal government should not just treat a thing in isolation, but it has to be treated within a context. This is what Nigerians are looking forward to. They want to see what is going to happen. Nigerians are very patient people, very understanding and they are waiting anxiously for what the total package will be in an objective way to address their current challenges. Nigerians are going through very serious challenges and they are waiting for government to do something while they too will play whatever role they have to play in their own interest and in the interest of the nation. But the policy makers and those who have chosen to lead the people will have to rise up and answer to the demands of the money.
Your advice on what government should do about the four refineries.
I am not in a position to be advising government. I had taken a position in the past and my position remains. It is that those refineries, at the time they were more or less operating, should have been made to get them to operate effectively. Individuals handle refineries, so a country should be able to handle its refineries and give opportunity to individuals or private initiative. Nigeria is an oil-producing country. Compare us with other oil producing countries. They have refineries and they refine their oil. My expectation is that we will be able to refine enough oil for local consumption and for export. I also believe that because of our own economic orientation, we should be able to give private initiatives some opportunities to compete along with government. That will be in the interest of the people and they will have choices. It is then that the competition will be meaningful. Service to the people should never ever be compromised and Nigerians should be given opportunities that will enhance the value of the Naira that they carry. At any given time, that should be the goal, to make sure the Naira is worth what it is: national currency.
There are people who have advised that the government should not throw Nigerians at the economic sharks that are called market forces to solely determine the direction of things in the economy, particularly concerning foreign exchange and selling and buying of petrol. What is your take?
By orientation, I am a socialist and I must make that confession. But then, I don’t see much that is wrong in a people believing in capitalism. But my criticism is that what we have in Nigeria is criminal capitalism. People are predating upon the Nigerian state. People are exploiting the Nigerian people criminally, recklessly and mercilessly and we have structures that cannot defend the people. Our institutions have not been strengthened so that we now have some individuals who are having a free reign and the system seems to be supportive of their misadventure to the detriment of the Nigerian people. That is the problem and that is why anybody who says government should not leave what we are going through to have a free fall in terms of both the worth of the naira and the economy itself has a point. In other words, you don’t just close your eyes after people have been given a blank cheque to do whatever they like. The Nigerian system is not helping the poor and not helping the Nigerian nation. Government must rise up. I just keep wondering what our lawmakers are doing in this regard. We have some people in the National Assembly who are very patriotic, who know what to do for the country and have the capacity to do the right things. They may be few, but we want to hear their voices. We want them to act and let the Nigerian people see those who will be drawing them back. They have to seize the initiative and not leave things in the hands of the people who will want things to continue the way they have always been which is not helpful to the people. When we continue to operate as if the pattern that was there before has to be continued, then we are in trouble. There is need for surgical operation in different areas of our national life and governance. The legislature, which is a very vital arm of government that is so crucial to the survival of democracy and good governance, is not playing its role. And when the legislature fails, you don’t see other arms of government functioning optimally and effectively to promote the welfare of the people. The legislature is the real watchdog.
The list of ministers-designate has grown to 48 and tongues are wagging about the seriousness of government to cut the huge cost of governance. What do you make of the development?
I am a little surprised at the development because the situation in the country calls for the running of a lean government or what you can call an emergency team that will rescue us from the current economic predicament that we have found ourselves. But this is not what we are seeing and I don’t believe Tinubu needs a very large team. Not only that, I will go further to say I am expecting and praying and hoping that the administration will show Nigerians the empathy that is required. In other words, by even saying that they are cutting costs in different areas because they know what Nigerians are going through, all certain privileges will be cut off, including reduction of salaries and other benefits that public officers normally enjoy. This is not the best of times for our country. This is a time that calls for a lot of sacrifice and if Nigerians are to make sacrifice and show understanding, of course there should be symbolic and practical gestures that will make them believe the government is indeed very concerned about their welfare and that the government is indeed responsive to their yearnings and to their concern and expectations.
Does the list of ministerial nominees inspire any hope in the redemption of the country from economic abyss?
I believe it depends on what the administration wants to get out of the people being recommended for appointment as ministers. My mind keeps going back to some expectations of the people and some ideas that were thrown up by different parties and candidates and so on. One gets the impression that we are going to have a team of technocrats and there will be many youths, professionals with capacity, vision and new orientation and perspective and energy and so on. We got this impression all the leading parties in the build-up to the election. We also heard that women with clear vision of governance, of how to serve the people and those with physical disabilities and all kinds of promises. We got the impression that it is going to be an inclusive government and all that.
But before one can pass final judgment, one would probably see what the breakdown of the people being assembled is. Like you said, people are seeing ex-governors and all that. People are now beginning to ask the question: is this what was promised? But then, until you see the breakdown of the whole thing… and then you also see where these people are going to be used, you cannot jump to conclusion.
Again, going back to the National Assembly, which should demand areas where the nominees are going to be used, if the president does not indicate that, the screening is meaningless because some screening would have been done by the security agencies in terms of the suitability of some people to serve Nigerians. But when it gets to the level of the Senate, you are screening to determine so many things: the competence, the capability, the background, the orientation, the experience and so on. So, without indicating their portfolios to be sure that round pegs are going to be in round holes, I don’t think people can really come to some serious conclusion about the team. As of now, we just wait and watch.
Some have argued in the past that ministers are mere coordinators and so do not have to possess the technical know-how for the portfolios, that they only need the skill set to coordinate activities.
People who say heads of ministries and parastatals are just mere coordinators and so they don’t need to have knowledge of where they are coordinating over are getting it wrong. They do not understand the workings of a presidential system. In a Parliamentary system, yes, you can do anything because you are representing the people in the parliament and then from there, if you are even a key member of your party become Minister of Finance without knowing anything about fiscal policies. You can be a carpenter or whatever. But presidential system is based on the assumption that people with competence and capacity and knowledge of the internal workings of the system will be utilised. That is why it is possible to have people who are non-partisan to be appointed ministers. That is why there are always technocrats that are brought in to serve the people when the government needs the services of such people. That is why it is even possible to take even from the opposition and so on. It is within that context that you can even fulfill the expectation of making government inclusive.
I believe those who are saying ministers don’t have to know anything about the ministries are wrong. That is why our systems are collapsing. That is why our institutions do not grow and are not rising up to the challenge of the day and that is why they can’t meet the expectations of the people. You have to have people who understand what they are doing and what they are supposed to do. They will be supported by professional administrators in the ministries and agencies quite alright. But the person himself must know sufficiently enough that even when he is being misled, he will be able to correct them. You can’t direct or initiate policies when you don’t know anything about what you are supposed to do. These are the areas that our people should get right. It is wrong to say anybody can just come and head a ministry. It is a wrong assumption. That is not what is intended by us following the presidential system of government. That system of government gives latitude to government to tap various human and material resources and use them for the development of the people. That is why when you have a parliament and committees are to be established, they, within the limitations of their own perspectives, make effort to ensure people who will head some of those committees have some background in the area. Although the usual tendency is there to want to compensate some loyalists, at the same time some efforts are still made to ensure those who will head some committees have knowledge about the committees they are going to head, at least to some extent and not in absolute terms.
So, in a presidential system, people should get it right that round pegs need to be put in round holes. There are opportunities to compensate those who need to be compensated without sacrificing the much needed service by the system and the people. What you sow is what you will reap. If you put the right people in positions, you will get the right results. And if you put the wrong people there, of course, the consequences will be there. That is why every effort should always be made at all times to get the right people in the right places. The people will add value to the system and the administration.
Nigerians are bearing the brunt of subsidy removal and there are growing calls for similar sacrifice to be made by those in government, prune down the number of aides and cut down the cost of governance and plug loopholes and show leadership through their example.
I believe that the situation that we are in now calls for a lot of sacrifice on the path of everybody, not just on the path of the poor people alone. Like I have said, I have been very surprised that the legislators are not rising up to the challenge of the day. The lawmakers are the ones to really rise up more than any other arm of government to address the challenge that is being thrown at the Nigerian nation. If we were having emoluments to the level of X, Y, Z, we should reduce it to the level of X now. We should drastically reduce the cost of governance. When that example is shown, others will get the message that indeed there is seriousness. It is believed that what has to be done is not just in one area of governance alone or in the Executive branch alone. There has to be cutting of costs of governance in the Legislature and the Judiciary as well and then of course the people will appreciate that. It is not just about cutting of cost for the sake of cutting it, but cutting in order to meet the most important needs of the nation. In other words, cushioning the effect of what is coming up the reality that Nigerians are facing and above all, preparing for the future. So much ought to have been done in the past that we did not do as a country to take care of what was coming. Everybody knew at one point or the other that we could not continue the way we were living as a people, as a nation and as a government. So, what was coming should have been anticipated and certain things ought to have been done that were not done. Now, is the time to face the challenges and do something concrete to convince Nigerians that indeed those who are representing them believe in them and are ready to truly serve them and not to exploit them or add to their yoke. They are to serve Nigerians, lighten the current burden and, of course, remove unnecessary burden of the future by planning well and hard and creatively for the future. If we do not plan today, we will not be able to take care of tomorrow and tomorrow will not take care of itself because there will be nothing to stand on.
As a former Ambassador, what do you make of effort by President Tinubu who is ECOWAS chairman, to ensure military deployment to Niger to force the coupists in the country to restore constitutional order?
I believe that everything should be done to use diplomacy to resolve the crisis in Niger. This is not the time for us to be involved in military adventurism. We should handle the situation with care. We should do everything to support democracy and good governance. Doing the right thing the right way will pay us better and by that I mean the military option should not be the way to go now. I know it could be frustrating when diplomatic moves are being made and they are being rebuffed. But we will keep doing more and engage other interests too. We should do it in a multidimensional way at different levels. We should not just be satisfied with doing it at the level of bilateral, that is, Nigeria sending people there. Yes, we operate at the level of Nigeria and Niger and also at the level of ECOWAS. We should move beyond that to also engage some others who are interested and are stakeholders not only in the democracy project, but also in peace in the world. So, we have to really engage some other outsiders that they know are connected with what is going on there. There are some people who on the surface of it will just calculate to say how much military might can Niger exercise. But the issue goes beyond the Nigerien military or Niger as a country. It is a very complex thing. We go back to history. Go back to socio-cultural ties. The people there are our own people. I believe that more than 50 per cent of Nigeriens are Hausa-speaking people and we should just regard them as another part of Nigeria. So, we should solve the problem amicably. We want democracy and good governance in the country. But we should manage the situation in a way that we will get the right thing we are yearning for.
The seven-day ultimatum given to the military guys in Niger expires on Sunday (today). What outcomes do you foresee if ECOWAS presses ahead with the military option at the expiry of the deadline?
I teach my students in international relations that before they make any threat, they have to make sure it is credible threat. That is when it has value. ECOWAS and its chairman should not have issued the type of ultimatum that they issued. But then it was out of anxiety and concern that there should be peace, good governance and constitutional order in Niger. I believe that is why the ECOWAS made that type of ultimatum. But I do hope that so much will still be done in spite of the shortness of time to ensure we handle the situation in a way that will benefit everybody—the Nigeriens, Niger as a country and of course, the sub-region. We do not need to expand the scope of the crisis we are in. We must end the crisis going on within our various countries and in the sub-region as a whole. Everything should be done to avoid the use of force which should not be the first resort. It should ultimately be the very last resort and everything should be done to prevent that.
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