NOW that CUPP has declared support for the candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, what is the nature of things to come? Is CUPP collapsing into PDP now or how does it pan out?
Effectively, that is what is going to happen. They may still retain their identities but effectively, what has happened is they are collapsing into the PDP to the extent that the party members are adopting the presidential candidate. To that extent, for the purpose of the presidential election, what that means is that they are collapsing into the PDP. But for elections at other levels and arms of government or at the local level, I imagine that they may want to retain their identities in several respects. But I also think that even at the other levels, we will still have variations of such kind of collaborations and working together.
Why did they come so late in the day because the window for substitution or withdrawal of candidates, according INEC timetable has lapsed. Even though they have announced their preference for the PDP candidate, the logos of these parties will still be on the ballot in 2019. Is that not going to be a disservice so to say?
It makes it less clarified, especially at the level of the masses. Having so many presidential candidates, I think right now about 70, is a recipe for confusion. So, you are right, it’s going to affect to some extent but not significantly. It’s going to create an element of confusion. In that respect, the PDP and they themselves, they have their task cut out for them. If we are going to collaborate at the presidential level, the ways we can mitigate the potential confusion of course, on the part of the PDP, is to take measures on which to mitigate the confusion. Voters at that level will need some level of assistance permissible under the electoral law, and the parties themselves that are collapsing into PDP will also need to instruct their members to vote for the PDP. These are the measures to take to mitigate the confusion.
The SDP and a few other parties have come out to say they are not part of the CUPP arrangement. When did the negotiation break down?
SDP has always been hesitant in the commitment to CUPP. I’m not surprised and I’m sure not many people will be surprised that the SDP is taking that kind of position. They also fancy their own chances of doing well in the election. But honestly, I’m not surprised that this is what they have come up with.
But let me also say that in reality, what it takes to mobilise voters to vote across the nation is a very big task. You have the recruitment of agents, allowances for those agents throughout the federations. The potential financial outlay is massive. I doubt the SDP has that kind of network and capacity. I’m not sure they have the financial network of party members across the country, from mere observance of the workings of the party. But even then, the members of the party and their supporters will eventually see reality and find the need to effectively work for the PDP if they are against the return of the incumbent President.
I’m not surprised that the SDP fancies their chances. Anybody who has followed recent developments in the political scene in the past one year will not be surprised as well. But again, it’s easy to announce on the pages of newspapers. But when it gets to brass tacks– you as an editor in a newspaper can easily do a random check about their capacity down the line. I don’t know how much of network or party organisation structures they have at the ward level, local government level and state level. I doubt if they have the capacity to make any serious impact standing alone.
You were recently named one of the spokespersons for the Atiku campaign. How do you fancy his chances going into the next election?
Elections of this nature, when the incumbent president is seeking a re-election, is nearly almost a referendum on that incumbent. That is about the most crucial elements of the chances of the opposition to defeat the incumbent. It’s going to arise as a result of the lapse in the conduct of the incumbent. If the people are happy with the incumbent, to that extent, the task of the opposition is humongous. But where you have an incumbent that you have a near total dissatisfaction all over the country, to that extent it makes the job of the opposition easier.
I’ve been saying this, but let me say it again. There is a rhetoric that captures what I’m trying to say and that was the pronouncement of President Ronald Reagan in 1980 that like Americans, we Nigerians, all the voters should ask themselves whether they are better off today than they were four years ago. When you pose that question, the answer is obvious. The overwhelming majority of Nigerians will answer in the negative. I’m sure that long before now, about two years ago, there is this comment that has been going around all over the network and the media in a funny manner that ‘you should just take us back to where we were before. We don’t want your change again.’
The most critical challenge that Nigeria is going to confront going forward, apart from the economic crisis, insecurity, fighting, corruption, is the political mismanagement of the country. That is the most crucial point. That is the fundamental question going forward. If you get that right, you are likely to get every other ting right and if you get it wrong, you are going to get every other thing wrong. You’ve got to have a nation with a shared sense of responsibility, commitment before you can do any other thing. You have to get the country together acting as a unit, believing in the country for you to advance whatever agenda you want to advance. You cannot have an alienated and divided country and hope to get the country going on that basis. You’ve got to mobilize the people of Nigeria as one people before you can do any other thing else.
The most spectacular failure that this government has recorded is precisely in the area of aggravating the division, the cleavages within Nigeria with the disastrous consequences that we have all witnessed. If you have a citizenry that believes in this country and is committed to the country, that has a shared sense of purpose or patriotism, it’s a contradiction in terms for that same country to be corrupt and for corruption to be so dominant. It’s difficult for me as a Minister to believe in Nigeria and be committed to its progress and then be corrupt; not just corruption but to the extent which it has gone. You see the military at the war theatre in the North-East, people wanting to desert the Army, near mutiny and things like that; no commitment. That is the point. If you don’t have a citizenry that is genuinely committed to the progress of the country, what you are going to have is individual, parochial appropriation of the nation’s resources. The philosophy will be that you better get your own before the thing collapses. They talk about Nigeria and you say who cares.
So, part of responding to that challenge, of course is restructuring. Restructuring is going to create a new platform and structure of political mobilization with answers to the political makeup of the country. When you put it the other way round, the degeneration of federalism, violation of federalism is almost in direct proportion to the degeneration of the economy of Nigeria, almost in direction proportion to all the areas in which we have failed. The presidential system of government that we have, the only way it can succeed and which is almost an illusion is to have a patriotic, detribalized, competent, almost a super human president. Once you don’t have that, there is no way you can have all the resources concentrated at the centre and hope to be able to develop the country. Even when you have that super human as President, there is still a question of capacity.
One of the problems the Nigerian economy has is arrogating so much power to the Federal Government that does not possess the capacity to take development to the people. It’s one of the negative consequences that result in waste and profligacy. For instance, if you have a Minister of Works and Agric, imagine what it will take, the attention that it will require as a minister for you to go round the country to monitor all the roads as frequent in basis as it is required. In their own case, they have even compounded the situation by tripling the responsibilities of the minister.
So, even where you have ‘a competent government’ a government that is super government, you still have a problem of reach and capacity. Abuja cannot develop Nigeria more than those governments that are nearest to the people. This is precisely the problem that we are confronting. Corruption is as a result of the political mismanagement, the political disillusion, the political incoherence, the political alienation that the country has. There is no way you will have a citizenry collectively believing in the future and progress of Nigeria, who have a shared sense of responsibility and faith in the country and you will then have overwhelming corruption pervading the governance. It’s a contradiction in terms. If you have that kind of citizenry, you won’t do things that will damage the prospect of that country.
As I said, the most spectacular aspect of the failure of Buhari’s government is precisely that rather than addressing the problem, it is aggravating it. They have also served a notice and there is a present indication that you yourself can see in their frame of mind which is what the Kaduna State Governor has done, picking a Muslim running mate in a religiously volatile state. Tell me how picking a Muslim running mate in Kaduna State will help the process of reconciliation in that State? He was talking about efficiency, he doesn’t care about religion; but the position of the Governor and his running mate is a politically representative position. That is why you have things like Federal Character and Federal Principle in the Nigerian constitution. He said he took the decision in collaboration with the President of Nigeria, which makes it worst. That is the mind-set that the Nigerian President has. He is so insensitive to the idea of political inclusion, equity and fairness. He is so insensitive to it that when a situation arises that requires taking a decision either to heal or inflict more wounds, he almost does the later. The thing about this government is that it validates the criticisms, the short comings and inadequacies that people have identified almost on a daily basis. Almost in any instance where it has an opportunity to prove the opposite, it proves itself to be an agent of division, agent of pitching a set of Nigerians against the other. He has not learnt his lessons.
The incumbent president campaigned on three main pillars when he was contesting in 2015. Your candidate has also reeled off his agenda. Are you saying that in the management of those three broad pillars, President Buhari has not performed to expectations?
Of course he has not. Every unbiased, non-partisan and credible organisations have attested to that fact. I am a spokesman of the opposition, so it is easy for people to exhibit bias. But when people who don’t have any reason to be biased, when they have every reason to be objective and credible, if they are almost unanimous in passing that verdict on the problem, then what else do you need.
Talking about the candidate of the PDP, for me, the most attractive quality of Atiku Abubakar as president of Nigeria from 2019 onwards is the ability that he has to bring people together. One of the most critical qualities I’ve identified in him is his nationalistic and cosmopolitan disposition. Those are the qualities that are required of the president taking over from President Buhari, to repair the damage that has been done. The political stability and coherence and integration of the country are prior to any other task. There is no way you can develop in an atmosphere of crisis. How much development is going on now in the North-East or the Middle Belt with all the rampage all over the places. See the extent to which agricultural production has been affected by the rampaging violations of the so-called Fulani herdsmen.
Even if we are to set it aside and talk about those areas in which they say they have bragging rights, there is no objective assessment that has not contradicted what they say of themselves. So, why are we deceiving ourselves? It’s like the philosophy of the Agama Lizard, falling down from the tree and saying if nobody congratulates me, I will congratulate myself. See the ratings that have been given by the Transparency International, by United States Annual Reports, by the World Bank, by Carnegie Foundation. Everybody cannot be against you. The same thing in the area of the economic management, which is tied to security. Will anybody experience what is happening in Nigeria since President Buhari came into power and score this government high on security? The way he even talks, his actions and dispositions explain the failures that we see. This is a President that after the mass killings in Benue State a while ago when he went there, he directed the Inspector General of Police to move to that place and stay there. But when he got there, he said he was not aware that his directive was immediately flouted and set aside. He said he didn’t know. Should you then be surprised if there is failure in that respect when you as Commander in Chief, you gave a commandment to your subordinate to go and deal with a situation of crisis and they flouted that directive? You don’t need to look further for the basis of the failure of the government. So, that in itself is a failure. But what compounds the failure is that it’s an act of gross insubordination and that IG shouldn’t be in that sit the following day if he is a serious president. If you have a serious attitude to governance, that IG who has flouted your directive and by the fault of that permitted a degeneration of the crisis, should not be on his desk the following day. He should have been removed immediately.
Your candidate is campaigning on the strength of restructuring, which you have also talked about. You know that restructuring is something a lot of people define in different ways because of that apparent incoherence. Some critics have said there are so many meanings to restructuring. In practical terms, how does Atiku want to restructure?
Restructuring simply means restructuring or reconstitution of the power relations between the first and second tiers of government, between the federal and state. That is precisely what it means. You redistribute the powers. There is no confusion, unless you want to create it now. In the process of restructuring or redistributing power relations, you either do it minimally or maximally. There is no question of confusion unless you want to project that confusion. You are jumping the gun by saying that you are going back to regionalism or the restructuring means this and that. Restructuring will arise as a result of what we have accepted.First is the principle that there is a need to do that. Then, secondly, we sit down and then redistribute the power and you have a guide – the independence constitution that you can follow the way the powers are distributed in conformity with federalism. You can look at that as a guide to what you want to do and how you redistribute that power. When you have agreed and you redistribute that power, it has consequences for fiscal revenue mobilization and distribution. For instance, if you shift considerably the policing of the country to the states, that has an implication for more resources.
But it is expected that people would want to compound the issue of restructuring and those who are doing this, it’s either they are lazy or wilfully ignorant or they are playing games and being mischievous about the issue. If you don’t want to do anything, you will find an excuse not to do it. They’ve sold it to the people by saying you don’t know what it means. What do you mean you don’t know what it is? It’s there in our constitution, even as bad as this one is. What it means is that the frequency of powers, you redistribute it. That is what restructuring means. You can redistribute it to the extent that you can go back to regionalism or confederation if you want. You can redistribute it to the extent of going midway between what we have in the independence constitution and what we have now.
After you’ve done that, then you look at the implications of what you have done. You can look at the financial implication and you also redistribute the finances. Any attempt to compound this is just a deliberate creation of confusion. Vice-President [Yemi] Osinbajo has been singularly responsible for introducing and deepening the confusion. He will go around talking about geographical restructuring, about economic restructuring and so on and so forth. What is geographical restructuring? They will tell you that what you need is good governance and not restructuring. On what platform is he standing to say that? How much of good governance have they provided?
One of the reasons why governance has been poor is precisely the lack of federalism. The failure of their own government is one of the evidences that support the restructuring of the country. The extent to which Nigeria’s governance is consistent with federalism is the extent to which it will succeed and vice versa.
The former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, said a few days ago that your candidate is directionless and that he has packs of party cards in his house that can build a house. That if somebody builds his trust on building party cards, it shows that he cannot build anything. I’ve not seen your candidate reacting to that, but as a campaign organisation, how do you take that?
The meaning of what he is saying is the fluidity of the political party system. The party system has not taken sufficient form. What he is saying even happens in the US. There is always the movement from one party to the other. But here, it is preponderant. It is not desirable in a way in which it has been exercised. Many of them do so, not for reasons of principle. That is what he is describing. But let me also say that he himself is guilty to that extent. It’s a criticism that is applicable to almost all the political actors that we have. The APC today is probably 50 per cent of PDP. So, it’s just a nonsensical statement. The boundaries between the parties themselves are blurred. There is no indication that the parties that we have now are predicated on any ideology. As a matter of fact, what the APC has done compounds the crisis to the extent in which what it was preaching before it got to power is not what it has practised. It has been more conservative than what they call themselves, progressives. Their commitment, for instance, towards devolution and decentralisation, they’ve jettisoned it. Their party, collectively and individually, they are a good example of the fault we have. He is pointing one finger and the other fingers are pointing right back at them. Within the context of Nigeria today, it’s a non-issue. Their own leader receives people who come from PDP with joy and salvation. So, if you are going to be critical, why do you accept it? On the basis of that, you pursue your so-called anti-corruption in a selective manner.
Some days back, we saw some NGOs protesting in front of the United States embassy in Abuja, claiming that the United States should not give visa to the candidate of the PDP. How do you react to that?
That is unfortunate if any set of people can be exercising that crass demonstration of inferiority complex and what political scientists call neo-colonization. America is an independent country and if you are asking America not to give visa to Atiku, on what basis are you saying that? Is he a terrorist? On what basis are you asking America not to grant him visa? In any case, America has not granted him visa up till now. Was that done on the basis of your advice or demonstrations or protest? It’s even illogical that a government of America that for whatever reason has not given him visa up till now. What do you now want to tell somebody who is already convinced because they have already taken a step in that respect. Once the basis of the rejection no longer exists, that’s when they offer the visa. You cannot ask them to take wrong policies or to behave in an illogical manner if it suits you. The embassies have the number of criteria on which they predicate the granting of visas or not to anyone. The granting of visa to Atiku, what is the meaning of that to the governance of Nigeria? It’s red herring. What has that got to do with it?
February 16, 2019 is fast approaching, how do you see it panning out, in view of cold feet from some South-East political leaders and the unclear situation in the North?
I don’t know whether it is correct to say that there is cold feet from the South-East. The coldness can be manufactured or contrived. It runs contrary to what we know of Nigerian politics or even partisanship that a zone will have an opportunity to produce the vice-president and maybe ultimately the President of the country and you will turn against that opportunity. It’s an inconsistent logic. It’s not a sustainable logic, given what we have today that the South-East will have a realistic chance of a legitimate aspiration and they would want to throw it away, especially against the background that the Yoruba faction of the APC has been threatening that they are going to take the Presidency back to South-West in 2023. If that is the position of the APC, you cannot have the president coming from Yoruba and have the vice-president from the South-East. What is the message they are directing to you? They shouldn’t have any problem taking the decision at all on the basis of the political reality and calculations on the ground today.
Fortunately, the personality that was picked from there as running mate, Peter Obi, is an exemplary political leader. He is somebody any zone of the country should be proud to associate with as a leader. So, I don’t know how logical it is to now expect a zone from where that candidate emerges and by omission or commission, now throw away that opportunity.
My feeling of the presidential election in 2019 is not whether the PDP will win. I think it’s a question of margin. It’s a certainty that PDP is going to win the election. What we can be unsure about is whether it is going to be landslide or with less. That is going to be a critical factor because you are dealing with people who have no sense of shame and who can brazenly and blatantly manipulate or change the result of an election in an instant. But the greater the margin of victory, the more difficult it gets for anybody potentially wanting to rig the election.
Above that, if you take all the indices on which you can take a decision on who to support between Buhari and Atiku in 2019, then there is no logical basis to expect a contrary outcome, other than the PDP will win the election. Nigerians are not masochists. It’s like saying somebody is punishing you and you want more of the punishment. That’s a presumption of an element of madness.
and then