Dangote, oil cartel and inevitability of change

“Change is a law of life. Those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” —John. F. Kennedy

Change, by its definition, is dynamic and transitory, certainly apt in the fast evolving world. The sophisticated nature of our 21st century world itself, along with its transforming affairs and secular intricacies, necessitates change. Hence, change is given, a precept that is hardly avoidable and acceptable. Inevitable and conceiving as change may appear; it is sometimes difficult to come to grips with it or the circumstances that warrant it. Given that the wave of change is a natural phenomenon of life, it follows then that it is a process that applies to all human activities, both major and minor.

For several decades since Nigeria attained its independence, we as a nation relied mainly on imported refined petroleum products to power our economy, despite being a crude oil producing country. As shameful as this anomaly was, it became a protracted chokehold strangulating our fledgling economy to death. Every effort made by successive governments to fix this malaise fell flat because of entrenched interests of a cartel in the mid-stream cum downstream sectors, who elevated its oligopolistic interest above national prosperity.

Billions of dollars flushed down the drain in the guise of Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) of government-owned refineries. Attendant fuel crisis orchestrated by epileptic supply persevered while the nation’s foreign reserves bled profusely due to unmitigated importation of refined petroleum products. There was no hope in sight that Nigeria would gain self-sufficiency in local refining of crude. It was a case of a rudderless ship hijacked by pirates with no intention of navigating the wreckage out of doldrums. Normalcy degenerated into complacency. Nigerians resigned their fate to imported refined petroleum products. The cartel became the proverbial payer of the piper that dictated the turn in the oil gas sector for decades.

Those who were granted licenses to build refineries failed to hit the ground running. Instead, they joined the bandwagon of “easy money” by importing refined petroleum products while simultaneously defrauding the nation through fraudulent subsidy schemes. As the shenanigans and profligacy dragged on, the cartel forgot one simple truth: nothing lasts forever. One day, the free lunch would end.

Fast forward to today, Dangote Refinery has changed the game. The oil cartel, who never imagined the party would end, were caught napping, clutching at straws, gasping for breath. Unfortunately for them, it’s the end of an era. The ship of change has sailed.

Affirming ideals of former American President, John. F. Kennedy, oil cartel forgot to take into cognizance that change is a law of life; those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future. They were stuck in the old order of importation, for a long time than necessary, while Alhaji Aliko Dangote worked tirelessly against all odds to enthrone the new order, of which Dangote Refinery symbolises. When it became obvious that the inevitability of change had taken its noble course via Dangote Refinery, the oil cartel declared war against the impending change, deploying every weapon at its disposal. Unfortunately for them, it was already a lost fight even before the battle began.

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Opposing the wind of change brought by the Dangote Refinery became a suicidal mission. The tide had already turned against the economic saboteurs, and it was far too late to stop the momentum. Yet, like a dying horse, a few final kicks were expected.

Conspiracies hatched against the Dangote Refinery quickly collapsed like a house of cards, as the law of natural justice stood firmly on Dangote’s side. Nigerians had grown weary of depending on imported refined petroleum products—an irony, considering the country’s elite status as a member of OPEC.

Since the Dangote Refinery began operations over a year ago, the oil cartel has struggled to come to terms with the reality: the road has ended for them.

It is either members of the cartel align with Dangote Refinery or risks falling by the wayside. The recent announcement of Dangote Refinery that it would on August 15, 2025, commence nationwide distribution of PMS, Diesel, Aviation fuel, etc., to marketers, petrol dealers, manufacturers, telecom firms, aviation and other large users, would be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back. This is coming as the Refinery had deployed 4,000-CNG powered trucks to make this initiative a reality. “In addition, Refinery will offer a credit facility to those purchasing a minimum of 500,000 litres-allowing them to obtain an additional 500,000 litres on credit for two weeks, under bank guarantee.”

This is called checkmate! Alhaji Aliko Dangote has proven to be the John D. Rockefeller of Africa. Once the world’s richest man, Rockefeller was a shrewd industrialist and a leading philanthropist who used his company, Standard Oil, to revolutionize the oil industry in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Like Dangote, Rockefeller’s strategic vision, commitment to vertical integration, and aggressive approach to competition transformed the oil industry, making him a dominant force and reshaping the landscape of American business.

Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, acquired pipelines and terminal facilities, purchased competing refineries, and vigorously sought to expand its markets. It lowered production costs and enlarged oil distribution through corporate and technological innovations. At the peak of his achievements, John D. Rockefeller gave Americans cheaper and cleaner oil, expanded his market share while his critics accused him of having monopolistic tendencies.

With the launch of the direct distribution initiative, Dangote Refinery has pulled the carpet from under the feet of the oil cartel to the relief of long-suffering Nigerians who have endured years of economic sabotage. The benefits of this initiative are far-reaching and substantial: free delivery across the nation, total elimination of logistics costs, lower fuel prices at the point of sale, improved fuel accessibility for both urban and rural consumers, guaranteed long-term energy security, credit facility for bulk buyers supported with bank guarantee, etc.

This direct distribution initiative is a laudable move that dismantles unnecessary bottlenecks across the entire distribution value chain. It also threatens the relevance of massive storage depots owned by cartel members, who continue to resist every effort by Dangote Refinery to provide Nigerians with quality fuel at more affordable prices.

With sufficient local production now a reality, the continued importation of refined petroleum products is not only redundant but also a reckless drain on scarce foreign exchange. In effect, the so-called tank farms, once crucial to the cartel’s dominance are becoming obsolete.

With marketers and bulk buyers now able to receive fuel directly from the Dangote Refinery, the need for large, expensive storage tanks for refined petroleum products is rapidly disappearing. These tanks costly to build and maintain have long added a hidden burden to consumers. What many Nigerians don’t realize is that they’ve been paying an additional N40 to N100 per litre of petrol in storage fees alone.

But that era is coming to an end. Nigerians will no longer be held hostage by a cartel hiding behind industry associations. What the oil cartel feared the most has finally happened: the inevitability of change has arrived.

And in this transformation, the real winners are not just Dangote Refinery, it is the Nigerian people. This is a new dawn.