Believability and the NBS

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) appears to be a victim of polarised perception. While the Bureau may not have engineered it, dilemmas in message reception are a cause.

This crisis comes when individuals or entities act innocently, reeling out information they consider reasonable or expertly cultivated but lacking control over how it is received. The control is open to many vagaries. The vagaries are uncertain, turning positive or negative, popular or unpopular. The sender can be celebratory when popular but disillusioned when otherwise, depending on self-esteem or zeal to power on.

Sometimes, a sender strikes believability with a category or categories of audiences, while others will remain brick walls, completely untrusting of the information. The ultimate wish of most senders of information, especially in public spaces, is for the message to resonate with as many people as possible or with the critical mass of the audience in segments. The NBS is caught between this balancing act of perception and credibility, considering the body’s status as the pivot of national data collection and as the provider of valuable figures for development planning.

NBS figures will likely be caught in a politically polarised nation like Nigeria, not because the organisation is lacking in quality expertise, making it look like a quasi-research and development outfit, or because its research processes are not compliant with international best practices, enhanced by its regular collaboration with multilateral organisations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, The United Nations Development Organisation (UNDP), amongst others but because it just had to experience its portion of cynics, and its city of critics.

Statistics are data or computations largely emerging from a painstaking process of applying techniques to unearth realities, gain insights into a phenomenon and leverage it for development. It is a social scientific route to quantitative knowledge production, moving away from a prosaic, descriptive pattern for visualising realities and essences in figurative, illustrative and graphical patterns. Though they might be fraught with limitations, these are usually not enough to obfuscate the benefit, provided methods are reasonably chosen, mixed and dutifully executed, and in so far as analysis is also evidence-driven, fact-based and rigorous.

The NBS is saddled with these responsibilities on behalf of Nigeria, investigating Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade and industry, trade statistics, population and demographics, financial and monetary data, labour and employment, social and welfare data, transportation and infrastructure, prices and cost of living, agriculture, energy and environment, crime and security, information and communication technology, and special surveys and reports, comprising data on health, education, and child welfare, multiple indicator cluster surveys and data on poverty and social welfare. Objectivity and freedom from values are the expected characteristics of the outcomes.

But why do people disbelieve or become unkind in remarks on the NBS figures? First is the possible disparity between reality and data, which should not be the case if research is to be trusted. Second is the more significant problem of trust in government and its agencies, resulting from past failures and the government’s persistent inability to deliver on promises.

The third is suspicion of political influence, which can hardly be the case given the body’s practices, including partnerships with global agencies. Fourth is illiteracy preventing people from appreciating the process of gathering statistics; fifth is past disappointments arising from gross misrepresentation of facts.

However, there are many more reasons why NBS should be believed. Some of these are the fact that its investigations often go through third-party validation, in addition to scientific techniques, with some being modern tools and applications for research. NBS has also improved the practice of leveraging digital tools and engendering increased transparency with public access to its methods and datasets. These should prove openness and confidence in its productions.

It should also be remembered that NBS is regularly audited, while the bourgeoning public interest in its figures should necessarily be a guardrail for right conduct. Again, the organisation’s outputs often align with those of autonomous agencies, where its benchmarks are comparative. Importantly, mistrusting the NBS data appears a recipe for chaotic planning, considering its relevance to decision-making and business planning.

The establishment is to announce a new GDP for the country. This is coming after the landmark modification in the nation’s labour force figures, which replaced the methodology for calculating it. The organisation’s helmsman, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, has argued that the Rebasing is a vital exercise that ensures our economic indicators are current and accurate reflections of the financial realities on the ground”

He continued “As economies evolve, new industries emerge, and consumption patterns shift” The outcome of all these is that statistics will capture the changes, including the expansion of the digital economy, the input from the Marine and Blue economy, Pension Funds, and addition from the creative industry. Moreover, Prince Adeniran said “Rebasing our GDP and CPI allows us to align with these transformations, providing a more precise and relevant picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape. This process is foundational to informed policymaking, strategic planning, and effective governance”

The NBS chief is not done yet “It is one exercise the NBS conducts with significant importance and professionalism. The rebasing exercise is designed to ensure that our economic indicators accurately reflect the current structure of our economy, incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating our consumption baskets, and refining our data collection methods. This is our responsibility as the official producer of data in Nigeria.”

Well said, but how much will the populace trust this heartfelt declaration? English statistician and scientist Francis Galton once said, “Statistics are the only tools by which an opening can be cut through the formidable thicket of difficulties that bars the path of those who pursue the Science of Man.”

Statistics, a United Nations (UN) document stressed “exists to provide information to the general public, governments, business and research communities in the economic, demographic, social and environmental fields. This information is essential for evidence-based decision-making, for mutual knowledge and trade” Because of this, another sage added, statistics should not be regarded as “opinions; (but) the unbiased record of a nation’s reality.” Need I say more?

Adeniyi is a professor of Mass Communication and Dean of the School of Postgraduate Studies, Baze University, Abuja.

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