Except the unexpected happens, the successor to Governor Abiola Ajimobi will emerge either from the All Progressives Congress (APC) or the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Unlike most states in Nigeria, Oyo State politics does not depend on a powerful godfather who determines the fate of all, at least, since the exit of Baba Lamidi Adedibu. Indeed, the politics of Oyo State rests on a tripod, with Senator Isiaka Abiola Ajimobi (Koseleri) holding one leg, Otunba Christopher Alao-Akala (Oyato) holding the other and Senator Rashid Adewolu Ladoja (Baba Alankara) holding the third leg. These three have shared the governorship seat of the state between them from 2003 to date and will certainly determine who occupies the Government House from 2019 to 2023.
At the inception of our current democratic dispensation in 1999, the whole of the South West was swept by Alliance for Democracy (AD), riding on the sentiment generated after the annulment of the 1993 elections. Though Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba, won the presidential election, his party, PDP, did not win any seat in the zone. The only dent on AD’s clean sweep was that Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala of the then All Peoples Party (APP) emerged as the elected chairman of Ogbomoso North Local Government Area and thereby established his dominance as a political colossus in the Ogbomoso zone of Oyo State. The emergence of Alao-Akala as the only elected official from the South West not under AD was partly due to his popularity and partly due to historical political rivalry between Chief Ladoke Akintola and Chief Obafemi Awolowo which has always kept Ogbomosoland at variance with Awolowo’s political dynasty in the South West.
Towards the 2003 general election and with Obasanjo’s determination to conquer the South West, he recruited Adedibu, a tested and tried grassroots mobilizer from Ibadan and Alao-Akala who had established himself as a force in Ogbomosoland from APP to spearhead the fight, knowing full well that Oyo State is often the political barometer of the zone. Adedibu then started shopping for a governorship candidate to slug it out with Alhjai Lam Adesina of AD who was going for a second term. Despite Dr Victor Olunloyo being the choice of the PDP apparatchik as at that time, Adedibu realised that a candidate with a deep pocket will be needed for the battle ahead and hence settled for Senator Rahidi Ladoja who eventually emerged governor of Oyo State in 2003, with Otunba Alao-Akala as the deputy governor. Thus, Ladoja cemented his place as one leg of the tripod. In the midst of Obasanjo’s ruthless conquest of the zone, Senator Isiaka Ajimobi emerged as the senator representing Oyo South Senatorial District, thus reinforcing his place among the tripod. By the end of 2003 elections, Ajimobi, Alao-Akala and Ladoja had established themselves as the major players in the political future of Oyo State. Since 2003, the trio has alternatively occupied the Government House of Oyo State with Ajimobi currently running his second term.
Come 2019, it is expected that either Alao-Akala or Ladoja will likely occupy the seat once more or a candidate backed by one of the three. This is where it becomes dicey and where APC has to play the right card because the party is in possession of the joker. Senator Ladoja is currently the leader of PDP in Oyo State except he moves to another party as it is being speculated, while Ajimobi and Alao-Akala are the leaders of APC. Though many believe that Ladoja will not run for office but politics is full of surprises and he might take advantage of any opening.
Oyo State political battle ground is roughly divided into Ibadan zone, Oke Ogun zone and Ogbomoso zone. Ibadan and Oke Ogun zones have voting history that is not well defined. They can go for the progressive or conservative tendency depending on the candidate. Ogbomoso zone, on the other hand, will almost always vote for the conservative base, except if the candidate contesting against the conservative is Alao-Akala, as the voting pattern from 1999 has shown. Now if Ladoja decides to run, it will be extremely difficult for any rookie candidate from APC to beat him. The candidate might split votes with him in Ibadan and Oke- Ogun zone, but Ladoja will almost sweep the vote in Ogbomoso, based on the political antecedent of the zone. The only sure option for APC is to field Alao-Akala who will not only split votes with Ladoja in Ibadan and Oke-Ogun, but will most assuredly score almost 100 per cent of the votes in Ogbomoso zone. Thus, Alao-Akala is the only card in the possession of APC that is capable of defeating Ladoja.
If the two parties decide to field rookie candidates, they will likely share votes in Ibadan and Oke-Ogun zones. However, Ogbomoso zone will likely vote for a conservative candidate, as represented by PDP and thereby giving PDP an upper hand. The only anti-dote to this also is to have Alao-Akala on the ballot. He will not only defeat the rookie candidate in Ibadan and Oke-Ogun zone, but will overwhelm PDP in Ogbomoso zone. Head or tail, the APC leadership has to go for Alao-Akala as the candidate in the state, not only to retain the governorship seat but also for success in the state for the presidential election. APC cannot afford to play the wrong card in Oyo State because aside Lagos, the state is the political barometer of the South West.
The march to Agodi is on. Like a game of chess, political gladiators are already positioning themselves. The combination of Senator Ajimobi and Otunba Alao-Akala is an ace for APC. However, holding the ace is not enough, playing the right card, at the right time and in the right place, is the key.
Ayantunji (PhD), is a public affairs analyst based in Ibadan, Oyo State.
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