On September 22, 2018, majority voters in Osun State elected Senator Ademola Jackson Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party, as governor, but was denied the seat, in one of the most brazen electoral heists in modern history, executed by the ruling party, led by the President, General Muhammadu Buhari.
As God would have it, it was the President himself who confessed to the crime, in a rare admission of guilt, four months after the inconclusive and supplementary abracadabra, perpetrated by the All Progressives Congress, through the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of Professor Mahmood Yakubu.
Pitching his re-election to Osun State traditional rulers on January 26, 2019, at the banquet hall of Osun State Government House, General Buhari said, “I know how much trouble we had in the last election here. I know by remote control through so many sources how we managed to maintain the party (APC) in power in this state.”
The President might have employed a combination of euphemism and analogy, to explain the daylight robbery, but the facts are unmistakable. Adeleke won the election. President Buhari torpedoed his victory, because he had a dog in the contest. APC went into the outlier poll as a predictor of what to expect in the 2019 election. The ruling party wanted a win at all costs. The foxy local leaders in Osun, deliberately nationalized it, as a precursor to Buhari winning his re-election. Always desperate for self, the President pulled a successful coup on the electorate.
Four years after, on July 16, 2022, majority of the electorate again elected the flamboyant rocker, still on PDP’s platform. This time, hours after INEC declared him the governor-elect, the President, though still of APC, led the cheerleaders.
The message on his verified Twitter handle posted on Sunday July 17, 2022, read, “I congratulate Senator Ademola Adeleke, candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on his victory in the Osun gubernatorial election. The people of Osun have expressed their will through the ballot. This is what democracy is all about; respect for the will of the people….”
Then the self-indicting clincher, “I remain fully committed to leaving behind a legacy of credible elections in Nigeria.”
As comforting as the last line may sound, at least for the sake of 2023 elections which have a lot of implications for the future of Nigeria, the President, pledging commitment to credible poll when he is no longer seeking votes, coupled with a body language that doesn’t suggest commitment to have his party keep power with a Southerner as the new leader, has further revealed his arguable inherent selfishness. When it was convenient, he allowed the will of the people to prevail. When not convenient for his own sake, he imposed his own will. The tweet and many of its kind, celebrating what could pass for ‘against the run of play’ (which was making Nigeria a one-party state, before APC began to hemorrhage badly) also showed that the President still has a personal agenda, ‘for playing along’. Whenever he talks legacy, he is eyeing history. But there can’t be a legacy, without consistency and a defining moment. The President has missed out on one. Not even hagiographers will award consistency to him on credible poll. But like Goodluck Jonathan who regained paradise in defeat in 2015, 2023 poll, can be the incumbent’s redefining moment, even if his party is going to be badly trounced.
The disclosure by INEC that some unnamed crooks, obviously working for senior operatives of APC, unsuccessfully tried to hack into its system, to falsify the Osun election outcome, can, in a fair call, should earn General Buhari a brief applause, though he is still not being selfless about allowing the winner keep his victory this time. Truth is, the political system is so compromised and the President, having so suffocating a leverage on the leadership of INEC, that had he wanted, when reportedly lobbied by the local leaders of Osun APC, the process could have been muddled again, by Yakubu and his men. The President, resolving not to soil his hand this time, could also be his way of saying to those who claim to be better politician, let’s see how you handle the mess this time, without us.
If General Buhari will also play fair in next February poll, starting with allowing INEC real breathing space (not in rhetoric) and putting requisite arrangements in place for prompt prosecution of electoral offenders, history can still reserve a clean page for him. Since rigging has now gone digital, the guys in INEC ICT unit, should be under security surveillance. Any misdemeanor should be met with swift sanctions, including lengthy jail terms. You ask what about the President and his ‘remote-control’ confession. Well, Immunity isn’t forever and Yoruba believe that the one who hurt you today, can do something comforting tomorrow. We wait.
In Osun, Senator Adeleke is expected to be sworn in as governor on November 27, 2022. That would make governor number two from the same family, which has already recorded three senators. Just like Ogun State in the Yoruba leadership context, there is an uncommon grace upon the Adeleke dynasty. Last Thursday, September 29, 2022, the Supreme Court, moved the merry-maker, closer to Abere, by technically knocking out the appeal of his party challenger, Dotun Babayemi.
But the battle for the Government House can’t be said to have been conclusively won, by the governor-elect, who has obviously made some bad choices, before his sojourn in politics. His ambition has also seen him, on occasions, playing by the political class rule of desperation. Those attempts to outwit his competitors who also don’t deal fair, may land more landmines on his path to the governor’s seat.
While I will like to leave the details out, not to be seen as arguing anyone’s case, the gov-elect is as endangered as his main challenger, Governor Gboyega Oyetola of APC, who had been judicially disqualified from the election he lost. Staring the two gladiators, Adeleke and Oyetola, in the face, are decided cases of the Supreme Court, akin to cases against them. Precedents, at the level of the Supreme Court, even when debatable, can be devastating, once verisimilitude is established.
But what isn’t debatable is the fact that between Adeleke and Oyetola, both, who could end up being disqualified, is 96.76% of the 804,450 votes cast in the election. The next man to them is Kehinde Munirudeen Atanda of ADP with 10,104 votes, representing 1.26% of the popular vote. If both Adeleke and Oyetola are eventually taken out, the apex court will ask the candidate with most lawful votes to be crowned, but must meet the constitutional geographical spread. That means, Atanda, must have secured 25% of votes cast in two-thirds of Osun’s 30 LGAs. That is talking 20 LGs. A well-informed boss of mine, pointed out that once the votes of disqualified candidates are taken away from the total, the 25% is on what is left. The total for the winner and first runner-up is 778,398. When taken away from the whole, what is left is 26,062 and Atanda alone, has about 40% of this. But his total, is still less than the voided 18,674 votes in the election. Some head-scratching moment there.
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