Why Tambuwal will Win

IT is not a hidden fact that Nigeria is currently divided along ethnic and religious lines. The PDP as a party has put before its members, various presidential aspirants who aim to lead the party to victory. The delegates, 811, comprising 774 Ad-hoc delegates representing one local government each, and 37 persons with disability, are poised to cast their votes to determine who would emerge as the party’s standard-bearer.

Already, there are permutations that four aspirants lead the pack, even though the analysis of such was not grounded in facts but in mere speculations. It is evident that there are only three aspirants leading the pack. The first is His Excellency, NyesomeWike, executive governor of Rivers State; His Excellency, Rt. Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, executive governor of Sokoto State and His Excellency,  Atiku Waziri Abubakar, former vice-president and former PDP presidential aspirant.

It is important to note that they are in their own right competent and have the capacity to lead the nation. The issue remains whether the candidates have the right temperament, sense of urgency and working plan to unite the nation and lead it to glory days ahead.

First, it is important to set out, factually, how the primaries may play out and who stands a greater chance. In the North-West of the region, Honourable  Tambuwal leads the pack. Having lost out in 2018 to Atiku, Tambuwal wasted little time in engaging with the delegates on a personal level. This engagement has been maintained for over four years and has endeared many to him. The North-West boasts of 192 delegates of which Tambuwal has well over 90 percent of them. The political leaders in the North-West are solidly behind their man and have ensured that he is the only aspirant from the region, unopposed.

His Excellency Wike, has been heavily supported by His Excellency SeyiMakinde and His Excellency Ayo Fayose, both of whom are insistent on a southern candidate. With that, Wike confidently has the bulk of the South-West which boasts of 143 delegates, the second largest bloc after the North-West. Wike also has Cross-River and Rivers state (uncontested) but will be unable to get the full backing and support of Edo State, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta state, thus leaving him short of the 129 delegates, which the block boasts of.  Wike has attempted to cover up for the loss by looking to the neighbouring South-East bloc which has 100 delegates, the least bloc amongst the delegates. He has successfully engaged with Anambra State and may have been able to take a chunk out of His Excellency, Peter Obi’s votes in the state. He also has the backing of the governors of Enugu and Abia states, which may mean that he would go with the chunk of votes from both states. However, he has not been able to penetrate the walls built in Imo and Ebonyi states, both of which have aligned with Tambuwal and Senator AnyimPiusAnyim, respectively.

The Northeastern states are a split zone, even though they should have been the home front of Atiku. However, delegates, both ad-hoc and statutory still feel disrespected, angry and unwilling to forgive the former presidential candidate for abandoning them after he lost the elections. As such, the zone is split among Tambuwal, Wike and Atiku, with Wike successfully co-opting a former governor of Gombe State, His Excellency Dankwambo to his side, he stands a chance of taking Gombe. Taraba and Borno may go the way of Tambuwal due to his proximity to leaders in both states that have agreed to work with him. Bauchi remains with its governor, Bala Mohammed, who would also be running. Adamawa and Yobe are the last two states and will most likely pull their weight for Atiku. The 118 votes which the region has will be split amongst these three aspirants.

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In the North-Central, votes are split among Tambuwal, Atiku, Saraki and Wike, although it remains unknown who would vote where. One thing is certain, HonourableAminu Tambuwal is no push-over and can be said to be in poll position to win the PDP presidential primaries.

The question many readers may like to ask is; what makes Tambuwal so special that he has been able to pull people his way? Tambuwal is said to be one of the most down-to-earth politicians, meeting people on their own terms and engaging with them in a manner like never before. Tambuwal takes his politics personal and is keen on maintaining quality conversations with people around him, never taking decisions on his own which is why he had a balanced House of Representatives, giving key positions to members of the House in an equitable manner. He also carried everyone along, and made sure that consultation was the theme of the day before taking any critical decision.

As a former teacher, lawyer and ex-secretary to the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Tambuwal can be said to have a wealth of experience. His role as opposition leader, Deputy Chief Whip, and Speaker House of Representatives has shown that he is a leader extraordinaire, who takes consultation of all stakeholders as being imperative. Tambuwal’s rise in the political space makes him somewhat of a political prodigy. His capacity to lead is why he was able to become the chairman of the PDP Governors Forum.

It is non-contestable that Nigeria needs a leader, who is able to unify the entire nation and not seem like an ethnic champion. The PDP also needs a standard-bearer, who would be able to unite the party, following the divisions which have become evident in the party and may seek to tear it apart. Tambuwal is the man for the job of uniting the party and uniting the nation.

In his opening speech on Tambuwal’s visit to the National Working Committee (NWC), the chairman of PDP Senator IyorchiaAyu stated that Tambuwal was responsible for the birthing of the new NWC and as such, the party was grateful to him for this. This is evidence that even the party is very much aware of Tambuwal’s leadership capacity and that the party would be in good hands if he were to be the presidential candidate for the party.

He has shown competence in his role as the governor of Sokoto State, a highly conservative area. He was able to push for the passage of the Child Rights Act in the state, an Act which was passed at national level since 2004 but was passed in Sokoto in 2021, that is, 17 years after. Only someone with Tambuwal’s capacity would have been able to achieve this.

His belief in institutions taking charge is why at state level he has allowed and enabled for local government autonomy without intervening in the local government activities except where he is asked to. He has maintained an independent stance in the activities of the PDP at national level despite being a key player in the emergence of the NWC and as such, gained the respect of party members across the country.

Justifiably, delegates, who have aligned themselves with Tambuwal, have done so with very good reasons and it will come as no surprise if many more delegates change their position on the day of the primaries itself to side with Tambuwal. His easy-going nature, ability to address conflict and build unity amongst party members are qualities which many party members are drawn to.

As we await the primaries this weekend, the PDP has before it an aspirant who cannot only unify the party and the nation but lead the PDP to victory in 2023.

• Onu, a political analyst, is based in Abuja.