Redesigning the naira: A need for caution

RECENTLY, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a statement that it had concluded plans to redesign the Naira. The CBN Governor cited money hoarding and  counterfeiting  as a major reason for its decision. This initiative is laudable, but we need to put the apex bank’s claim through rigourous scrutiny, especially judging from the history of the  sort of economic policies adopted by the CBN in recent years, the economic impact of which had deepened Nigeria’s financial woes. It’s true that redesigning currencies curbs counterfeiting. It is also true that redesigning and printing of new currencies will cost billions of naira of public funds. The CBN should show us through public engagement and credible statistics the percentage of counterfeit to each naira to warrant this design and printing of new Naira. For want of a more recent report,  CBN in it’s 2020 currency report said that a  total of 67,265 pieces of counterfeit notes with a nominal value of N56.83 million was confiscated in 2020, indicating a 20.80 per cent decrease in volume and 12.18 per cent decrease in value, compared with 84,934 pieces valued at N64.71 million in 2019.

The global standard for number of counterfeit per million is 100. The ratio of counterfeit  notes to the volume of bank notes in circulation was 13 pieces per million in 2020, compared to  20 pieces per million bank notes in 2019.  The  CBN claims that it is also redesigning the naira due to hoarding.  I believe we should investigate this claim further.  This is because, currently, naira-dollar devaluation is so high that the CBN has to employ artificial valuation. Between last  year and this year,  n the naira  has been  devalued  at least three  times and with the look of things, there is the likelihood of further devaluation, coupled with an increasing inflation rate, which  means that the purchasing power of Naira is weakened.  How does it make economic sense that a currency whose value is highly decreasing is being massively hoarded as claimed by the CBN? Those that have the capacity to hoard such huge amounts of money are the political class and would also have the sense to convert it to dollars. The conversion argument further makes the claim of the CBN Governor that a redesign in currency will hamper ransom payment, thereby making it laughable.

It is grand self delusion to believe that naira redesigning in itself will remedy rising inflation in this country, especially given the fact that this policy  has no way to  appreciate the value of naira in the real sense. The CBN should scrutinise its many ruinous policies that lead to inflation such as its increased penchant to print money for the Federal Government,  its direct financing of Nigeria’s budget and violating the CBN Act by exceeding the 5% stipulation of ways and means law, and printing many for state allocations. There are three major reasons why the CBN’s reason for redesigning the naira should be investigated: This exercise is not free, neither is it cheap.  It will cost billions and billions of taxpayer funds. The redesign,  ink purchasing, registering the ink, logistics and printing; these are not cheap. In these days of dwindling revenue, high budget deficit and high debt rate, the money that will fund this is not cheap. According to CBN report  the total cost incurred on printing of bank notes in 2020 amounted to N58,618.50 million. That was for printing an existing design; now let’s imagine the cost of printing a redesign and it’s logistics. So, it must be shown through reasonably justifiable means that this is an effective policy and needed at this time.

The risk of overprinting will lead to further inflation.  Going by history, this CBN Governor has a penchant for printing money. When too much money is printed, it leads to too much money in circulation which is a cause of inflation or hyperinflation. In the bid to print the redesigned currencies to substitute the old ones, hopefully, the apex bank won’t print more to fund the government.  The policies of public officers must as a matter of fact always be scrutinised and elaborately considered, especially in a country like ours going through financial crunches. Every financial public policy must be rigourously considered before implementation.

• Opatola, an Abuja-based legal practitioner and policy analyst, writes in via [email protected].