‘Petrochemicals, aviation will lead global oil demand by 2040’

As crude oil consumption is being challenged by alternative renewable energy including solar and electricity, petrochemicals and aviation will be the leading sector on demand for crude oil consumption by 2040, according to the Secretary-General, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Mohammed Barkindo.

Barkindo stated this at the 25th Lustrum Symposium held at Delft, Netherland at the weekend.

According to the OPEC Secretary General, road transportation will consume 5.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040, petrochemicals 3.9mb/d, while aviation will need a total of 2.9mb/d by 2040.

In 2016 OPEC’s WOO, the group revised long-term oil demand slightly downwards by 0.4mb/d, with total demand at over 109 mb/d by 2040.

It said developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by close to 25mb/d, to reach over 66 mb/d by 2040.

“Long-term demand growth comes mainly from road transportation (6.2mb/d), petrochemical (3.4mb/d) and aviation (2.8mb/d) sectors,” according to its 2016 WOO.

On supply, Barkindo said non-OPEC liquids supply is forecasted to increase from 57mb/d in 2016 to 62mb/d in 2022.

This he said, is mainly a result of the recovery and improved outlook for US tight oil production, however, he said OPEC’s liquid output will drop to 60.4mb/d by 2040.

According to Barkindo, this dynamic bodes well for OPEC crude, which he said will benefit from rising demand, reaching an estimated 41.4mb/d by 2040. The share of OPEC’s liquids in the total global liquids supply is forecasted to rise to 46 per cent by 2040 up from 40 per cent in 2016.