BOTH in the nation’s economy and the polity generally, Nigeria have a broad spectrum of issues of national challenge last year. Much as the Federal Government claimed to success in solving these problems, they mostly remained with the nation even into the New Year. Some analysts have referred to these problems as the nation’s carryover into 2020.
Insecurity
Top on the lists of these challenges are the different vestiges of insecurity, ranging from kidnapping, terrorism, armed robbery, herdsmen menace, among others. Only on the last Saturday of 2019, a bank robbery was attempted in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. Though security men foiled the attempt, it appeared like a last minute reminder that armed robbery had yet to leave our shores.
But by far the most daring of these security challenges were insurgency and herdsmen menace. Despite several assurances by the Federal Government that Boko Haram, the home-made version of fundamentalist insurgents, had been decimated or technically defeated, there is no certainty that the menace died with 2019. If anything, Boko Haram has found a more deadly ally in the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) which has stepped up the terror trade in some parts of North-Eastern Nigeria and around the Lake Chad area. Only a few days to the New Year, this deadly group murdered 11 Nigerians it had held captive for many weeks, reportedly to avenge the killing of one of their commanders in far away Syria.
Nigerians are wondering what steps the Federal Government will take this year to secure citizens from these terrorists, particularly in states like Borno, Adamawa and Yobe.
In parts of the country like the North-West, banditry was the order of the day in the out-gone year. Governments of the affected states only fell short of declaring inability to protect the people. Some of them were actually courting the friendship of the criminals after they might have killed score of people and destroyed properties. A government official in a local government was quoted as saying it was government that was paying ransom to free victims kidnapped by the bandits. Until the close of the last decade, there had not been much concrete action that banditry had not followed Nigeria into 2020, safe for the ‘gentleman’ agreements some of the governors said they were reaching with bandits, a development many watchers of event have said would be counterproductive, anyway.
In South-East and South-West as well as some other parts of the country, the people contended bitterly with the problem of herdsmen ravaging farmlands and in some instances getting into murderous feud with farmers. Many citizens, both the low and the mighty, lost their lives or properties to the rampaging herdsmen, who more often than not were said to be of Fulani stock. This even made many Nigerians to question alleged lackluster attitude of President Muhammadu Buhari, himself a Fulani man, towards the carnage committed by the cattle herders in states like Benue, Kaduna, Enugu, Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo, among others, particularly in 2019. Nigerians are still worried that the Federal Government has not taken a tangible decision over the debate on how to end the menace and give farmers the peace and courage to return to their farms.
The most visible step taken by the government over the issues of herdsmen last year was even more controversial. That is the policy of RUGA or National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP). Because of the controversy and suspicion that trailed the policy, everything went silent about it late last year. Thus, it is one of the carryover issues into 2020. Only a few days ago, a Fulani herders’ group, the Gan Allah Cattle Breeders Association, reportedly dragged the Oyo State government and the state House of Assembly to court over a legislation enacted to regulate open grazing of cattle in the state. Obviously, Nigerians have not seen the last of the controversy over open grazing of livestock.
Multiple taxation
Another issue that generated controversy in the economy last year was that of the introduction of various means by the Federal Government to shore up revenue. Issues like the increment of the Value Added Tax (VAT) from five per cent to 7.5 per cent, introduction of various new bank charges etc. drew some flak from many Nigerians. Many experts have said the VAT increase would have a dire economic effect of Nigerians. Even when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had reportedly reversed or mitigated some of the bank charges, Nigerians, about five days into the New Year, are still complaining that some banks and merchants still charge exorbitant fees on certain transactions. Certainly, there are bound to be more issues on bank charges and CBN monetary policies generally in the coming days.
Closed borders
Last August, the Federal Government ordered the closure of land borders to neighbouring countries. Chief among the reasons given for this decision was the need to curb the influx of foreigners from neighbouring countries who were allegedly helping to exacerbate the nation’s security challenges, as well as discourage the consumption of foreign rice to give local production a boost. While some analysts have criticised the government’s action, claiming that it has been lopsided in favour of one part of the country against the others, others have lauded the initiative as a step needed to revamp agriculture.
However, many ordinary Nigerians have been groaning over the effects of the border closure. The closure has affected other trans-border activities, just as it has drastically affected the economics of those who engage in trans-border trading to survive. How the government will eventually resolve the issue this year and when is certainly one issue that will interest not a few Nigerians.
$29.6 billion fresh loan
This is also an issue that dominated the Nigerian public sphere in the latter part of 2019. Yet, it remains unresolved as the country cruised into 2020. According to some analysts, a decision of the National Assembly to approve the request by the Federal Government to go for this loan, if it ever so decides, when its total external debt has already peaked at $83 billion, will be tantamount to a disservice to the country. While those who are sympathetic to the Buhari-led government have argued that the loan is needed to derive the infrastructural provision move of the government, other commentators have countered that nothing is on ground that is commensurate with the $70 billion loan already taken in the five-year duration of the administration.
As the National Assembly resumes legislative duties soon after the New Year break, the loan issue is expected to form part of those of last year that will get to the front burner.
N37 billion NASS building repair debacle
Just as the fresh loan issue, the request by the National Assembly to spend a whopping N37 billion to renovate the National Assembly Complex became a very contentious matter last year. The lawmakers have been justifying the amount, while many Nigerians view them as spendthrifts, arguing that the complex, which was built 20 years ago with about N10 billion, shouldn’t need as much as N37 billion for renovation. Because both chambers of the National Assembly are yet on holiday, Nigerians will surely hear more over the matter by the time they resume later.
Budget implementation
The current government moved budget preparation a notch higher when it ensured that the 2020 Appropriation Bill got to the National Assembly by December of 2019, ostensibly for its operation to begin in January. But one of the major problems of the country with regard to budgeting has been implementation. With the 2019 Budget yet to have been fully implemented, some analysts are skeptical that returning to a budget cycle of January to December does not necessarily guarantee an appreciable percentage of implementation. Thus, improved budget implementation is an area many Nigerians will expect the Federal Government to have a better record in 2020.
High cost of electricity, petrol and subsidy
Despite several increment in electricity tariff, Nigerians have yet to enjoy stable electricity supply. There had always been promises, but up till the end of 2019, it was complaint galore. Though scarcity of petroleum products seems to have become a thing of the past, watchers of the economy have said the peace is like peace of the graveyard. The huge amount of money which the government claimed it spent on fuel subsidy last year appears to be a source of worry to many economists. It is expected that the Federal Government will get the issue of electricity right and resolve the controversy and secrecy surrounding fuel subsidy in 2020.
Poverty capital of the world
Though many have complained that since the advent of the Buhari-led administration in 2015, Nigeria has not had a policy direction that would put it on the path of prosperity, the people of the nation were thrown into a frenzy when, in 2018, it was named as the world’s poverty headquarters of the world. Before that time, India was said to hold that unenviable title. But based on a projection by the World Poverty Clock which was then compiled by Brookings Institute, more than 643 million people across the world lived in extreme poverty, with Africans accounting for about two-thirds of the total number.
According to the researchers, “by the end of 2018, in Africa as a whole, there will probably be about 3.2 million more people living in extreme poverty than there are today.” That was at the beginning of 2018. By the end of the year, Nigeria was reportedly the worst hit, with about six people falling into extreme poverty every minute.
Throughout 2019, there were no reports that things got better for Nigeria in terms of poverty rating. Rather, there were projections of more people slumping below poverty line in an extreme manner.
Thus, in view of the oft-made promise by the Federal Government to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty within 10 years, Nigerians will expect the government to work towards this reality in 2020, going by the reports of rating agencies, that more Nigerians had sunk into poverty by the end of 2019.
and then