The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production declined by 133,500 barrels per day in November, according to its Monthly Bulletin.
Algeria was up slightly in November after that huge decline in October, Angola was the biggest loser in November, down 108,700 barrels per day. Ecuador, though holding its own for the last year, appears to be in slow decline. Gabon is also in slow decline. And their production is not enough to make much difference in total OPEC production. Iran ignores any OPEC request to cut production and continues to produce flat out.
Iraq peaked last December and down only slightly since then. Kuwait peaked last November then dropped sharply in January and has held steady since then. Libya was the largest gainer in November, up 95,800 barrels per day. It looks like Nigeria peaked in 2005 and have been declining since. Saudi Arabia is holding steady, down about 600,000 bpd since peaking last year.
The UAE was down 35,500 bpd in November. Venezuela’s decline continues. They were down 41,600 bpd in November. Venezuela is on the verge of becoming a failed state. What happens to their oil production in the future is anyone’s guess. But it doesn’t look good.
The OPEC MOMR says world oil production was up 840,000 barrels per day in November while OPEC crude production was down 133,500 bpd. That would mean Non-OPEC total liquids + OPEC NGLs would be up 973,500 bpd.
OPEC + Russia is 57 percent of world oil production. The last four months of 2016 are all above the black line in the chart above. This was all “positioning” for future cuts. This could have been done by draining storage tanks and delaying well maintenance.
The sudden decline, January through May, was refilling storage tanks and catching up on good maintenance. The six months since then, June through November, is everyone producing every barrel they possibly can, or near that anyway.
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