In its assessment of the first year of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) has said indices point to the fact that the Nigerian economy will record remarkable growth in the next three years.
This was contained in a paper titled: “Prospects for the Nigerian Economy: 2023 – 2027,” presented by Dr Segun Awode of the Department of Economic and Business Policy, NISER at the institute’s seminar series held on Thursday, in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.
While acknowledging pains from the policy decisions in the past year, the institute held that projections show improved performance on economic growth, employment generation, fiscal policy profile and reduced inflation.
The paper presented by Ayoade forecasted economic growth above three per cent from 2024, an average of O.5 per cent growth in the agriculture sector though slow due to structural defects.
Though headline and food inflation rates are presently high, a rapid decline is forecasted to happen in 2025, while revenue collection by the current administration is expected to yield an improved fiscal profile in the country.
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Should the new minimum wage be N70,000, the NISER envisages that 20 million jobs will be generated between 2023 and 2027, however, a minimum wage of N100,000 is believed would lessen the number of generated jobs by one million.
No matter the minimum wage arrived at, the NISER believes that inflation will not be triggered.
Projections on the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio is within the three per cent generally acceptable limit while the total debt stock to GDP ratio will be 34.91 per cent in 2027, which NISER holds, is well within the internationally acceptable limit of 40 per cent.
“Distributive trade, building and construction sectors will witness a significant surge in growth in 2024, averaging 16 per cent each from 2024-2027, indicating the impact of reforms around the Presidential intervention development grants, driven by increased infrastructural investment and construction activities.
“Mining and quarrying will grow consistently averaging 11% with the potential to make solid Minerals “the new oil” for Nigeria,” the NISER paper read.
The Director-General, Professor Antonia Taiye Simbine, in her welcome remarks, noted that “what NISER has done is to examine some of the reforms in place under the current administration and to project where the nation will be in 2027, all things being equal and especially if we continue on the same or on an improved trajectory.”
The discussants, Mr. David Adeosun (former director, macroeconomic department, MFBNP) and Professor Suleiman Yusuf of Agricultural Economics department, University of Ibadan, also aligned with the position of the institute that there is hope in the horizon for Nigeria’s economy.
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