By Joshua Oyebode
The population size of any country; either low, medium or high has its attendant challenges and opportunities. Frequently dubbed as the Giant of Africa, Nigeria presently faces a drastic demographic shift that has a colossal possibility of dictating its future. WHO approximates Nigeria’s present population to be 227 million people, with forecasts that the estimate may double up by 2050. While an exponentially growing population may indicate opportunities for corresponding development, it equally presents a plethora of challenges needing to be coordinated
approaches.
The population challenges that the Nigerian state faces are broadly two.
The first is socio-economic downturn. As Nigeria’s population continues to grow rapidly-with an annual growth rate of 2.4% as estimated by World Bank, it has been predicted to be the third most populous nation in the world by 2050, only behind China and India. This population explosion
portends attendant challenges that Nigeria may grapple with. Nigeria faces multiple existential crises despite pockets of progress since independence. Nigeria is regarded as the world capital of poverty. There is also the challenge of insecurity. All these are in motion when oil, the purported black gold, is at a declining value as experts are predicting the end of the oil economy. Yet, Nigeria remains highly dependent on oil as over 90% of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings accrue from the export of crude oil. Other issues include high levels of unemployment and
underemployment. Coupled with the economic management challenges are the issues of resource management. The management of the commonwealth is ridden with corruption and mismanagement. Despite the multiplicity of agencies to fight corruption and their efforts, the
problem has deepened over decades.
The second challenge is the dearth of valuable political leadership and strong institutions. At the heart of the challenges facing the Nigerian polity today is the problem of values and the failure of leadership. People who are entrusted to hold public offices have simply used the platforms to turn the public treasury into personal wealth. Bribery and corruption have become commonplace. It only logically follows that Nigeria has ranked dismally on the corruption index for many years.
Nigeria ranks at 145 out of 180 countries according to Transparency International’s corruption perception index for 2023. Nigeria’s developmental problems are borne from leadership ineptitude
and failure. Lamentably, corruption permeates all levels of the Nigerian government including the judiciary-which often times delivers judgements devoid of justice. In fact, the National Bureau of Statistics reported in July 2024 that judges topped the list of recipients of bribe in Nigeria for 2023.
Every challenge bears a silver-lining for positive progression. Nigeria’s exponentially growing population therefore depicts a double-edged sword, capable of offering both challenges and opportunities for the future.
While Nigeria is facing many difficult challenges, it is not conclusive apocalypse. There are nascent seeds of change that can be the propellers of national transformation. Nigeria has vital assets and comparative advantages that can be channeled to competitive advantages to ensure national development.
First, we possess humongous market size. Nigeria’s population size and resource possession are so evident as to drive optimism in its economic potential. Nigeria has diverse resources, but it takes strategic policies, management, and state commitment to coalesce her potential, both now and in the future. The potential of the agricultural sector in Nigeria is immense. The nation has approximately 70 million hectares of agricultural land, and is the largest producer of cassava, with other crops including corn, yam, beans, sorghum and more. Despite the challenges facing the
sector, agriculture contributes about 22% of the total Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria and engages an estimated 70% of the population.
Failure to implement good policies and manage them has made agriculture in Nigeria to be predominantly subsistence-based. By implementing apposite policies to address the limitations facing the sector, such as deficient access to modern inputs and technology, insufficient access to markets, poor access to credit facilities, weak research services, and defective transportation and storage, Nigeria could utilize agriculture as a significant contributor to the country’s development in the future. Nigeria’s geometrically growing population
and resource repository makes it as the largest market in Africa. The nation’s size and potentials can naturally pull investors. For clarity, the Nigeria’s eCommerce market generated a revenue of US$7.6 billion in 2021, ranking it 38th globally. Nigeria can serve as a nucleus for production and export to the rest of the African continent by leveraging on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) when it becomes fully enured. Even more, Nigeria can serve as a viable commercial hallway to the rest of the world.
The youth population of Nigeria presents another opportunity. Nigeria has the largest population of youth in the world with a median age of 17. Those below 30 years represent 70% of the population. Nigerian youths have put Nigeria on the global pedestal through music, sports, and
start-ups, and evincing their creativity and innovation. In 2022, Nigerian Fintech companies-most of which have youths at their helms, pulled $1.2 billion for venture capital funding, yet opportunities are yet to be fully optimized in that sector. The youths signify the potential of Nigeria
for desired transmutation. However, the nation still has to heavily invest in the youth population if they are to be a positive force for development. To ensure that youths render the momentum for development, it is pivotal to put programs in place to resolve their challenges. Emphasis needs to
be put on proffering special approaches tailored to the varying categories of youths in Nigeria. It is instructive that the responsibility of expanding the ecosystem for employment, mentorship, and innovation is not exclusive to the government; non-state actors and the private sector should be incentivized to actively participate.
Conclusively, Nigeria’s future will be the outcome of the actions and/or inactions of all Nigerians, whether it will be the Nigeria of the emerging fintech unicorns and fast-growing creative sector with social entrepreneurs, or one of multi-dimensional poverty, high crime rates, and incompetent political leadership. Either is possible even though the latter is undesirable. It is the ultimate duty of every Nigerian to transmogrify the jangling discords of Nigeria into the beautiful symphony of an egalitarian state.
Joshua Oyebode is a Law Graduate of Obafemi Awolowo University.
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