NESG projects 4% GDP growth, 24.5% inflation in H2 2025

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has forecast that the economy will expand by about 4.0 percent in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025), bringing the full-year growth rate to an estimated 3.8 percent.

The outlook, according to the think tank, represents a modest recovery and slight improvement compared to Nigeria’s growth performance in 2023 and 2024.

Presenting its projections at the H1-2025 Private Sector Forum themed “Staying the Course on Reforms: Turning Economic Gains into Social Progress,” the NESG also projected average inflation of 24.5 percent in H2 2025, closing the year at 24.0 percent.

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It attributed this to the rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI), the low-base effect, and potentially favourable outcomes from ongoing reforms.

While describing the GDP growth path as encouraging, the NESG cautioned that the pace remains below Nigeria’s true economic potential.

It noted that deliberate reforms and stabilisation measures would be required to ensure broad-based growth across sectors, rather than the narrow expansion recorded in recent years.

“The Services sector will continue to drive economic expansion in H2 2025, buoyed by increased digitalisation, financial services growth, and urbanisation,” the NESG said. “Agriculture and Industry will post modest performances due to climate risks, high input costs, and infrastructure bottlenecks. However, oil production recovery and improved refining capacity will provide a lift to the industrial sector.”

Despite the positive momentum, the group warned that projected growth levels may not significantly raise per capita income or generate broad-based employment without coordinated efforts to translate macroeconomic gains into tangible social impact.

On inflation, the NESG noted that pressures are expected to ease gradually, helped by stabilising fuel prices, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and relative exchange rate convergence.

However, it warned that structural bottlenecks, cost-push factors, and tight monetary policy would keep inflation elevated in the near term.

“The pace of disinflation in H2 2025 will depend on the consistency of reforms,” the NESG stated, adding that sustained implementation could yield stronger price stability over the medium term.

On monetary policy, the group projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will likely slow its hawkish stance in H2 2025, striking a balance between supporting economic growth and curbing inflationary pressures.