A Civil society organisation, YIAGA Africa, has said the outcome of the weekend governorship election in Kogi state corroborated its prediction based on empirical polls conducted.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had on Sunday declared Usman Ododo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the winner of the highly contested election while Muritala Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party came second.
YIAGA Africa, which deployed observers and the Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology to observe the election, said the outcome of the poll reflected what transpired at the polling units.
The CSO made the submission during the presentation of its Process and Results Verification Statement on the November 2023 Off-Cycle Governorship Elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi States.
On Kogi State result verification, YIAGA Africa said “Based on reports from 278 of 286 (97.2%) sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows that the All Progressives Congress (APC) should receive between 47.0% and 59.0% of the vote, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) should receive between 4.8% and 7.4% and Social Democratic Party (SDP) should receive between 31% and 42.4% of the vote. No other political party should receive more than 1.2% of the vote.
“INEC’s turnout and rejected ballots for the 21 LGAs as announced are consistent with Yiaga Africa WTV PRVT estimates. Yiaga Africa’s turnout estimate is between 34. 4% and 43.6% (39.0% ± 4.6%) while INEC’s official turnout is 40%.
“Similarly, Yiaga Africa estimates rejected ballots are between 0.9% and 1.5% (1.2% + 0.3%) while INEC’s official rejected ballots number is 1.45%.
“INEC official results for the 2023 Kogi State governorship election are consistent with Yiaga Africa’s WTV estimate (specifically, it falls within Yiaga Africa’s WTV estimated range). Had the official results been changed at the ward, LGA, or state collation centres, the official results would not have fallen within the Yiaga Africa WTV estimated ranges.”
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