In a little more than 100 days to the 2019 general election, politicians, especially those vying for political offices, are mapping out various strategies to counter the many odds against them. In Kebbi State for example, the incumbent governor, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, is one of the All Progressive Congress (APC) governors seeking re-election for a second term in office. Bagudu became the governor of the state in 2015 on the platform of the APC when he defeated the candidate of the then ruling party in state, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), General Bello Sarkin Yaki.
Bagudu, then a serving senator, came in as the choice of the people of the state as they moved with the “change” train. He was overwhelmingly elected by the electorate. Many people had thought the governor will not do much to change the fortune of the state after he was elected, but Bagudu had turned around the infrastructure fortune of the state within a three-year period, even with meager resources at his disposal. He achieved reasonable development for the state especially in the state capital, Birnin Kebbi, which had remained underdeveloped since the creation of the state in 1991.
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Governor Bagudu’s performance in other sectors of the economy will be one of the indices that may boost his re-election in 2019. His first people’s project on assumption of office in 2015 was the massive construction of roads in all the 21 local government areas of the state, apart from those that were rehabilitated and the ones within the state capital, Birnin Kebbi. Street lights were installed in major streets within the state capital. The state capital and its environs now enjoy more than 22 hours uninterrupted electricity supply after he purchased and installed two 7.5KVA transformers at two strategic locations in the city and more than 35 2.5KVA transformers to boost supplies from the two 7.5KVA transformers.
He also supported the Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company with new transformers and a monthly financial support of over N100 million to stabilise and ensure constant electricity supply to the state. This has contributed to the boost in economic activities of small scale and medium scale businesses in the state.
In all the 225 wards across the state, Governor Bagudu has inaugurated one or two projects in the area of road construction, water supply and construction/rehabilitation of schools.
Another major factor that may stand for Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu’s chance of returning as governor of the state is his relationship with the Presidency and the national hierarchy of his party, the ruling APC.
When President Muhammadu Buhari launched his economic diversification agenda in 2015, Kebbi State readily came to his mind to launch the Anchor Borrowers Scheme in which no fewer than 75,000 rice farmers benefitted immensely and Governor Bagudu gave full support to ensure the success of the scheme, resulting, at present, in mass production of rice in and around the 17 local government areas out of the 21 local government areas of the state.
Today, the state ranks top among other states of the federation in the area of rice farming. Minister of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Audu Ogbeh, attested that Kebbi State has achieved over one million metric tonnes of rice production. With this development, President Buhari made Bagudu the national chairman of Rice and Wheat Production in Nigeria. He also played a vital role in the success recorded by the APC in the last gubernatorial election in Ekiti State.
The massive defection of over 200,000 members of the PDP, led by the immediate past governor, Alhaji Saidu Dakingari and his deputy, Ibrahim K. Aliyu, to the ruling APC early in the year dealt a devastating blow to the PDP structure in the state. Governor Bagudu at present has a firm grip on the APC structure in the state and had been consolidating on this achievements.This singular effort of Bagudu to cripple PDP, the only opposition party in the state, has strengthened the chances of the governor and the APC in the state towards what would appear to be an easy ride for him and his party in the February 2019 gubernatorial election. Political observers have stated that the gale of defection by prominent stalwarts of the PDP to the APC makes it easy to say there is actually no opposition party in Kebbi politics.
With the incumbency factor, which has always been a big factor in Nigerian politics, Governor Bagudu as the incumbent governor of the state certainly has an edge over other opponents who already have been described as weak, leaving only the PDP as the opposition party in terms of financial resources, political structure and patronages. Kebbi State, as history shows, has always been dominated by any political party that has Northern Nigeria involvement, hence any political party with northern colouration and involvement is usually welcomed.
This, according to observers, has been the trend over the years since the advent of democracy in 1999. That time, only the PDP and the defunct APP were two major parties structured in the state. Later, it became PDP and ANPP. The elite from the state have, over the years, turned their eyes against any other political party without northern interest. This, political pundits attribute to the reason other parties are not always welcomed and accepted in Kebbi State and, by extension, its sister states of Sokoto and Zamfara.
The issue of prompt payment of salaries is another plus for Governor Bagudu. In the past three and a half years in office, the Bagudu-led administration in the state has been paying civil servants salaries as and when due. He often pays ahead of time whenever there is an upcoming festival. In fact, Kebbi is one of the states in Nigeria that can boast of regular payment of workers salary. The governor also accords workers welfare packages and pays attention to their entitlements during festivities like Sallah and Ramadan, by providing cash and material assistance to them.
It is, however, important to note that with the advantages he has to secure re-election, there are still some odds that may work against his return in 2019. The most striking challenge against him is the emergence of Senator Isa Galaudu from Argungu emirate as the PDP governorship candidate.
Galaudu from Arugungu Emirate Council is a product of Wales University in United Kingdom with a Masters Degree in Financial Administration. He is also a one-term senator at the National Assembly representing Kebbi North from 2011 to 2015. He is also the immediate past Chief of Staff to the Senate President. Galaudu, a maverick modern day politician, knows very well that for him to make an impact toward entering the Government House, he has to play a fast one on Bagudu and his co-travellers in the APC. Towards this, he picked Alhaji Abubakar Garimalam, a retired Deputy Comptroller-General of Customs from Gwandu Emirate as his running mate. Garimalam is also a cousin to Bagudu, they both hail from the same compound in the ancient town of Birnin-Kebbi.
The selection of Garimalam, according to some political watchers, was a tactical permutation to woo voters from Gwandu emirate, which has the largest number of local government areas and the highest number of voters in the state. Another reason was that it will reduce the number of votes that would come to Bagudu from the emirate.
Garimalam, popularly called “Sai Gari,” holds the title of the Shatiman Gwandu. He contested and lost elections as governorship candidate of Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) in 2007 and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011. He has a large political followership in the entire Gwandu Emirate.
Another factor that could boost Galaudu’s chances in the election is the lingering issue of political marginalisation by Gwandu emirate against the people of Argungu emirate, as the people often complain of being politically marginalised by Gwandu emirate with a claim that since the creation of Kebbi State, all the previous civilian governors except one from Yauri emirate has always be indigene of Gwandu emirate, including the incumbent governor, Senator Bagudu.
Another factor that may pose a danger to Bagudu’s second term bid in 2019 is the aftermath of the party’s primaries in the state. Many aspirants that did not scale through felt cheated. They blamed the governor and the APC hierarchy in the state for not carrying out credible primaries. The aggrieved aspirants said a grand plan was hatched by the APC leadership in the state for the emergence of those aspirants perceived to be loyal to the governor.
In a video tape that went viral on social media, an aggrieved member of the party, who is also the incumbent member of the House of Representatives, Salihu Garba Koko (Jarman Koko) representing Koko Besse/Maiyama, claimed that the primaries were not free and fair, he felt shortchanged by the party leadership in the state.
Tongues also wagged following the non-recognition of Ibrahim Muhammad Mera, a retired Deputy Comptroller-General of Customs, also from the ancient town of Argungu. Mera, a prince of the Argungu and a younger brother of the reigning Emir of Argungu, was prevented from entering into the APC office when he led his crowd of supporters to the party office for what he called expression of intent for the governorship.
The leadership of the party disowned him and his intention on the argument that that the party’s state executive council (SEC) had resolved that Governor Bagudu is the consensus candidate for the governorship seat.
“We don’t know any candidate than Buhari as president and Atiku Bagudu as the governor for a second term bid, this is what we concluded and endorsed,” the party’s leaders had stated in their response to Mera’s quest. This situation aggrieved Ibrahim Mera who holds the traditional title of Ciroma of Arugungu Emirate.
With this acrimony in the horizon, it is most likely that a protest vote from the people of Argungu emirate will go to Isa Galaudu of the PDP, who is their own, to pave the way for the emergence of a governor from the emirate.
To achieve this, political gladiators from the emirate would reach out to their fellows in Yauri and Zuru emirates for political collaboration to unseat the Gwandu Emirate hegemony.
On a swift move to stem the tide and unite the APC, with the plan to address grievances arising from the concluded party primaries in the state, the party leadership inaugurated a 13-man committee to reconcile aggrieved aspirants ahead of the 2019 election. The committee was headed by General Muhammadu Magoro.
Another thorny issue that may not favour Bagudu in his quest to return to the Government House in 2019 is the agitation by pensioners in the state. Although Bagudu’s administration inherited backlog of billions of naira of gratuity arrears from the immediate past PDP government of Saidu Dakingari, the current agitation from pensioners is giving the government of Bagudu sleepless nights, in spite of its efforts to offset the liabilities.
When the agitation, protest and even prayers against the government persist, the aggrieved body of pensioners besieged the Eid Praying Ground to seek divine intervention from God and the state Commissioner of Finance, Ibrahim Augie, had to call a press briefing to make clarifications on the matter to the public.
He said the Kebbi State government had expended over N10.8 billion for payments of outstanding gratuity liabilities to 7,003 retirees across the 21 local government areas and local education areas from 2015 to 2018.
“The sum of N1 billion was paid on one to six ratio bases to all verified retirees through Kwaido committee in 2015. In 2016 to 2017, the sum of N6 billion was released and paid to all verified retirees for state, LGAs and LGEAs. These payments cleared 40 per cent of all claims of the verified retirees.
“In early 2018, another sum of N2.5 billion was released and paid to the verified retirees as every retiree got a minimum of 27 per cent of his outstanding gratuity arrears paid. This brought the total percentage payments on all claims to about 67 per cent,” he said.
The two parties will be heading to the election in 2019 with the APC making efforts to maintain its hold and the PDP striving to wrest power from the APC.
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