According to a knowledgeable source, President Muhammadu Buhari consented to ending fuel subsidy midway 2023, to encourage Dangote refinery come profitably, into the sector. The expected price hike, particularly of petrol, would be a definite investment catch for any businessman, especially Africa’s richest who is possibly aiming to beat Elon Musk, for the world richest, someday.
That presidential encouragement in itself, can’t be bad, economic-wise, though the morality of the timing would always be suspect, considering the shared affinity between the private refinery owner and the political class/power corridors newspaper tells a sad tale of the politics of subsidy and the man who as President, is now at the centre of it all.
To be clear, the Buhari administration signed subsidy away, starting. It would seem he is being walked straight into the heart of profiteering in the sector.
The cover story of the Friday edition of Guardian
from July 1. President Bola Tinubu just needlessly snugged self into the brouhaha in his inaugural speech, I guess, to sound like a strong leader rather than an empathic one. Like a Trump, rather than a Biden, the latter, with all the inherent hypocrisy.
And being direct on it, with a straight face, though needlessly, got many subsidy-fatigued Nigerians to his side. The reason is simple. People are tired of everyday mind-boggling revelations of scams, in billions of Naira, though the big masquerades, have not been brought to book, despite convictions of many fronts.
For eight years, and with multi-layered bilateral agreements and intelligence cooperation with the West, Diezani Allison Madueke, the alleged kingpin of subsidy mismanagement and oil sector maladies, remains untouched and unreachable, abroad. She even got so bold that in the dying days of the Buhari administration, she sued EFCC and the AGF for libel. The suit was filed on 26, May by Ozekhome.
There are talks that she was also captured in the “amnesty” sought for top functionaries of the Jonathan administration, along the big man himself, by the General Abdulsalam Abubakar-led National Peace Committee, from Buhari in 2015, allegedly brokered by the international community, led by the U.S.
Despite all present elements of hearsay, the troubling reality that no serious legal avenues were exploited by the administration, to enforce her extradition, amid other forced repatriations, including the high-profile one, involving South East separatist leader, Nnmadi Kanu, proves that the Buhari administration went for only those it wanted to bring home, and sadly, Diezani wasn’t one of them.
This politicking around subsidy and its many scams, is what the cover story referenced above, speaks to. The headline “11 years after ‘Occupy Nigeria’ Tinubu toes painful path to economic rebirth”, was an indirect jab at the President, for his fierce political objection to President Goodluck Jonathan’s subsidy removal policy.
The resistance then, programmed by opposition element, led by Tinubu, was code-named “Occupy Nigeria” and almost brought the country to its knees, through sponsored public demonstrations, in Lagos, Abuja and other major cities.
Possibly fearing a coup, Jonathan was forced to walk-back the policy and reinstated partial subsidy, with the country having to bleed for another 11 years. Buhari and Tinubu, playing adversarial opposition politics denied the citizenry the opportunity of an early post-subsidy adjustment, when dollar was N163.33 and inflation, was just 12.22%, unlike now when inflation is 22.04% and dollar rate is N461.42. And they knew Jonathan was right then, only he wasn’t of their party.
Ecclesiastes 3:1 says “to everything there is a season, and a time, to every purpose under the heaven”. Now that the incumbent and the immediate Presidents are full deregulation converts, God may have prepared them for a time and season like this, particularly the incumbent, to lead through a furnace for the economic rebirth Guardian newspaper talked about. Whatever heat he faces in the hands of Labour and yet-to-be persuaded Nigerians, should be taken as the pounded yam of 11 years, coming to incinerate his fingers. Thankfully, he isn’t seeking pity.
This moment can also be one for his redemption. Yoruba will caution an incorrigible fellow with “Ti won ba pe eniyan ni onifun rairai, o ma npa ifun re mo ni (when someone’s gut is deemed unsightly, he should hide it)
Before his sojourn in Aso Rock began, the President’s family was and still thick in oil business through Oando. His protégés and close associates, like Ogun governor, Dapo Abiodun of Heyden Petroleum, are also deep in the sector. The President has a widespread reputation of doing mostly oils stuffs, for his billions. His defence then, was that he wasn’t playing near public fund.
Now, he has not only the public fund to protect, but also the people’s trust, though the election that brought him in, is still being frenetically contested in court.
First, the President will do well, not allocating the Ministry of Petroleum to self like his immediate predecessor. Eyebrows didn’t twitch much over Buhari’s decision because he didn’t have Tinubu’s kind of perception baggage coming into office.
Now that the President has chosen to be the undertaker for subsidy, he should know that his doings in the oil sector, would constantly attract penetrating irradiators, and any sight or sound of sleaze, may end his presidency, considering that ordinary Nigerians are now answering for decades of subsidy scams by untouchable fat cats, as recently disclosed by Amnesty International.
After the Endsars’ revolution and the inspirational turnout of Nigerian youth in the 2023 poll, the discerning would know that there is already a shift in the psyche of Nigerians, particularly the restless youth, who now require no one to call them out for public demonstrations.
That they aren’t on the street now over the spike in petrol pricing, doesn’t mean, they have come to completely trust the Tinubu administration. What used to be a general docility, has now given way, to benefit of the doubt, being extended to the rulers. If there is any suspicion they have been taken for a ride, today’s mindset, is always about serving the citizens’ brand of justice, which is always unpalatable.
Though NNPCL played a fast one on Nigerians, with the so-called leak of what it said was meant for its in-house use, as a private entity in the sector, which has now foisted another pre-determined pump prices on the people, the President can still emerge from the entire mess with his first policy win.
Since NNPC says it is now a private entity, President Tinubu should change the identity, so Nigerians would stop perceiving it as still the national oil entity. The GCEO, Mele Kyari, should stop speaking for government, since he is now just like any other CEO in the sector, servicing both the up and down stream. Whatever monopoly NNPCL is enjoying, should end immediately and its pricing, should remain its in-house business.
The incoming Petroleum minister must receive definite instructions on why the oil subsidy nonsense should forever be out of governance dictionary in Nigeria. And whether, he retains the portfolio and gives it out, President Tinubu should know the buck stops on his table. He can make or mar himself.
End.
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