What are your thoughts on the forthcoming general election?
Anything can happen in Nigeria, but one thing is that people should not fool themselves that the election will be free, fair and transparent and lead to a legitimate government in Nigeria. The conditions for such do not exist. However, an attempt will be made, yes, but there will not be free, fair and transparent election leading to a legitimate government. The election will be manipulated; it will be rigged in favour of those who have money, because the deciding factor in politics and election in Nigeria now is money power. In particular, stolen money power.
Conservatively, you cannot even have a chance of winning a governorship election in Nigeria unless you can spend at least half a billion Naira. In the case of presidential election, you have to spend anything from N3 billion to N5 billion. In fact, for the 2019 elections, at this level of degeneration in Nigeria, the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidates will spend up to N500 billion to win the Presidency. They will virtually buy the votes and those who will manage to organise the campaign, they will also buy them.
That means you, like some people, are envisaging that the election will be rigged?
Of course, the votes will not count. Votes never count in Nigeria, except marginally. The votes have never counted in the history of Nigeria, though some were better than the others.
What of the June 12, 1993 election adjudged the best and freest of elections ever held in Nigeria?
Well, it was relatively free. It was the nearest to a free election in the history of Nigeria. It wasn’t really free, but it was free under the Nigerian condition. We have never had an election near what you can call free and fair election.
Does that mean you also have fear of the election leading to violence?
Of course, it is expected and it will. The election, as it is being prosecuted by the APC and PDP with the aim of fighting to the finish indicates that there might be violence. It symbolises the height of money power.
Do you think the country is heading towards the 1983 situation?
Oh! Worse than that, because if the election is rigged and rejected totally by the APC or the PDP, which are the only political parties that can effectively reject the election, there will be violence. The two parties are already fighting each other to the finish. So, definitely, if one loses, the other is likely to unleash violence. If there is an arrangement like we had in 2015, there may not be violence, because in the 2015 election, the PDP actually surrendered power to the APC. The PDP believed that if they returned to power in Nigeria in 2015, which they would have done, because the APC was not a match in such situation, there would have been violence and they would have suffered more. This was because the party had been rejected in the country and if they had returned to power as they were the people who controlled the economy of the country, the violence would have amounted to the destruction of properties and they are the people who will suffer the most. So, they decided not to hold on to power because of the danger it portended. They said; ‘let us hand over power to this APC which is not capable, who will not be able to handle the situation, and in a matter of a few years, the people will be asking us to come back.’ That is exactly what is happening today. It is the PDP that cleverly surrendered and planned it and it is now time for them to take back their power from the incompetent APC.
You can see how the power mongers in the country are rallying behind the former Vice-President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku. Look at how they are rallying behind the PDP. Look at how [former] President Olusegun Obasanjo used the influence he had to seek the removal of the ban placed on Atiku from entering America. You know until a few weeks ago, every Nigerian believed that Atiku was banned from traveling to America because of the corruption charges. But two or three weeks ago, Obasanjo went to America and solved the problem for him. Now, Atiku has gone to America and he went to America because of the influence of Obasanjo. So, you should now assume that white imperialism is now in control in Nigeria through PDP with the major role of Obasanjo behind the whole thing.
Can one really say that Buhari is a creation of Obasanjo?
Remember Obasanjo came in to support Buhari in 2015 when he started his campaign for the Presidency and he helped him [Buhari] to become the president. But immediately Buhari started, apparently, he didn’t want to be a brand of Obasanjo and the latter dumped him. The result now is that he [Obasanjo] is fighting Buhari to the death. That is the only way you can explain his support for Atiku against Buhari, because how can you imagine Obasanjo who is so articulate in terms of power, with all the failure of Buhari, how can you imagine him preferring Atiku, who compared with Buhari, is virtually a nonentity politically? How can you imagine Obasanjo, an articulate politician and articulate leader, supporting Atiku, because of the fear of what Buhari can do to him and others?
But can do you think President Buhari can repeat the 2015 feat and win the presidency?
Whether he wins the Presidency or not is not the issue. The issue is whether he or Atiku wins the presidency, nothing will change. It will get even worse. The tragedy for Nigeria is that both Atiku and Buhari will not fulfill anything. But that does not seem to be the possibility of having a third force that can make the difference. This is the problem of Nigeria. Can you get a third force from the 91 political parties and their presidential candidates who are just a variation between PDP and APC? A variation between what Atiku stands for and what Buhari stands for? So, there is no fundamental difference.
Of all the 91 registered parties campaigning now for the 2019 election, there is only one party, which is distinct from all the other 90. That is the PRP and the distinction is that it is the only party that has gone so far to address the fundamental issue, which is the commitment to the leading role of the state in the economy to ensure peace, equality, justice and progressive even development of the whole country. That distinguishes the PRP from all others. But the PRP can’t make it, because it has been priced out. The leading role is the money of power, both in politics and election. How can PRP make it when it has been priced out? PRP is the oldest political party since 1978 when the registration of political parties was introduced and it is not just the oldest for nothing, it has succeeded in forming governments in two major states – Kano and Kaduna, which are now four states. Therefore, it has record of performance. This is more than you can say about all the political parties. Yet PRP cannot have a presidential candidate for the 2019 election because it has been priced out. Like I told you, what you need to make an impression in the presidential election for Nigeria is at least N1 billion for the campaign. Where can the PRP see that type of money? Even if we want to steal, we are not in the position to steal because stealing itself arises from capacity. We don’t have the capacity to steal. So, where can we have N1 billion to make impression in the 2019 presidential election? We will rather concentrate on governorship, Senators and House of Representatives. But even then, what we are doing is not comparable to our history and our credibility, because this is money politics. How can a person who is demonstrably credible and qualitatively superior to Atiku and Buhari emerge under the circumstance?
You talked about Third Force, is there any Third Force presently?
Where is it? Can you mention any of them among the presidential aspirants? Even in terms of eminence, none of them is comparable. But there was a time when you could easily say this person is creditable demonstrably and qualitatively better, especially during the Second Republic; the same thing during the First Republic. Let us take the First Republic; you can always say ‘yes, Tafawa Balewa will make it.’ You can easily say ‘Chief Obafemi Awolowo will make it.’ But today, is it possible? We are only limited to two people as big as Nigeria is.
You said neither Buhari nor Atiku would make the difference in 2019, but someone must win, where do you think this assertion will lead Nigeria?
That is too bad and it would only lead to a catastrophe. When you don’t have a system that is transparent leading to a legitimate government, it will not solve anything. It will not count.
You have been talking of possible rigging in the February election, which of the two dominant parties do you think has the tendency to rig?
The two of them will use the opportunity to rig, particularly the one that has power presently. But the other in the opposition will even do worse. I hope maybe there will be the mutual safety valve that brought about the defeat of Jonathan by Buhari. As I said, the PDP realised that if they tried to continue in power, there may be a revolution or violence or anarchy, which may destroy their properties and may even threaten their lives. So, they applied a safety valve by saying, ‘allow this upstart APC to win power but they will not be able to handle it after one year and people will be calling us back to take over’ and that is exactly what has happened. Let me tell you, we saw wonderful things particularly in Kaduna and Kano states. The PDP was in control of power in the states and at the federal level, yet in Kaduna, during the 2015 elections, the PDP could not campaign. Their posters were freely destroyed. Their convoys were attacked by the APC and nothing happened. Yet, they were in control of power in the state and at the federal level. Can you imagine this happening without conspiracy?
After the 2011 elections, there was an episode in the North after the presidential election violence. Throughout the North, except probably in the minority areas, in Hausa-Fulani states, particularly in the North-West, there was an organised attack on the property and persons of the PDP. The targets were the PDP leaders and their properties and the properties were destroyed in many states. I don’t think life was lost but properties were destroyed and these were in states controlled by them. Their party was in control of the Federal Government. The incident was investigated by a panel set up by the Kaduna State government, which led to the arrest of a number of CPC, but none of them went to prison and none of them was convicted. But there was another panel by the Federal Government to assess the damage and the loss incurred by the PDP leaders. After that investigation, the PDP leaders were compensated. But why should that happen under a PDP government, leading members of the PDP were attacked and their properties destroyed? The perpetrators were arrested but never sentenced. Instead, the victims were compensated. That was it.
You insinuated that President Buhari might probe Obasanjo. How real is that?
He would have no alternative if he wants to maintain his credibility, particularly his promise of anti-corruption campaign. Also, if he wants to correct what really went wrong, he must probe Obasanjo over the annulment of June 12. Even though Babangida annulled it, Obasanjo was part of the problem. But in any case, the probe would have to involve all previous Heads of State who may have had a hand in it, because the feeling generally is that there was an agreement among the then former military president, ACF and Afenifere in particular to annul June 12 1993 elections. There was an agreement, even though they were denying it, for that annulment. Moshood Abiola was a threat to the ruling class in the North and in the South-West in particular. So, they must have conspired with the military and others to annul June 12. If you probe the death of Abiola, you will see that there was a big conspiracy, because Abiola was allegedly killed in the presence of his friends or those who were said to be his friends.
So how do you assess the statement recently credited to former President Obasanjo that Nigeria is moving towards Abacha era?
What he said was an understatement; we are moving towards worse than Abacha era. If Abacha era was bad, then we are moving towards something even worse than Abacha era, because we are moving towards anarchy. But anarchy and violence can be managed if you have proper leaders, as they can re-channel it towards constructive measures. There is this idea that you have to destroy before you can construct, but you need a leadership that can channel the destruction into constructive measures. But if you don’t have it, what do you do? It means you may end up with a situation where you have widespread violence and anarchy.
Obasanjo had previously said that he would never work with Atiku; suddenly, he embraced Atiku and he is giving him all the support. What do you read to that?
[It is just] as Buhari said he will not re-contest after four years. Is he not now contesting? They all are contradicting themselves because they are bankrupt ideologically and politically.
So, how would you rate both Obasanjo and Buhari in governance as both of them were former military Heads of State and presidents?
The ruling class always do that; they come together to protect their interest. In the case of Obasanjo, the fear that Buhari may do what Murtala Mohammed tried to do is imminent. Murtala Mohammed tried to deal with the disturbing level corruption, stealing and criminal waste of resources before it undermined peace and progress in Nigeria and the arrogant combination of Kaduna mafia and super permanent secretaries. Murtala agreed to surrender any property he had to the state. Since Murtala died, have you heard of any property he owns? It’s left to those who are in government or in politics to take up the rumour and dispose it. So, these former Heads of State are afraid that Buhari may do what former Murtala Muhammed attempted. If he does what Murtala did, then he will be a threat to Obasanjo and other Heads of State, because they are responsible for bringing about this disturbing level of corruption and because as a cabal, they were responsible for the annulment of June 12.
But Obasanjo, as I always tell people don’t dismiss what he says. Study it and analyse. With Obasanjo, we think that politically he is no longer relevant in Nigeria, but he could be an agent provocateur on behalf of some external forces or world imperialism. Look at America, which banned Atiku from visiting the country and never denied they did so, for reasons which were credible. But we have not bothered to bring him to America to face trial or in Nigeria. Instead, we are now saying that he is free to come to America and this happened after Obasanjo, three or four weeks ago, went to America to negotiate for Atiku and he is free now to go to America. Why should America lower its standard for Atiku? Why should America, which is recognised to have a very high level of standard of public conduct, allow someone that they denied visa to enter the country? It is simply because of the influence of Obasanjo. It must be because Obasanjo is their agent and APC and Buhari are irrelevant.
Does that really show the disposition of the Americans in the forthcoming election?
The indication is that Obasanjo has always been an agent provocateur since he handed over power as military Head of State. He has been an agent provocateur, either for internal forces or for world imperialism.
What is your take on the registration of over 90 political parties? Is that howcasing the beauty of our democracy?
First of all, we have no democracy, because democracy is an exact and real thing, which means supremacy of the will of the people. You can interpret it that the purpose of government is the welfare and security of the people. Do we have it in Nigeria? Have we ever experienced it? We have a constitution, which is always violated. The government does not obey court orders. We do not have elections in which the electorate decide the fate of a political party in an election. We have this disturbing level of corruption and criminal waste of resources. We have this issue of fight to the death between the executive and the legislature, the two leading arms of government. How can you describe such a situation in Nigeria as democracy? It is not. So, we have no democracy to protect.
and then