Climate change: Katowice and house divided against itself

IN December, the world will convene in Katowice, Poland for the 24th session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP) to discuss climate change, commitments to reduce emissions to 1.5 degrees below pre-industrial levels, to further the Talanoa dialogue, and to finalise on the Paris rulebook and implementation. This meeting will bring together government leaders, industry practitioners from the private sector, and non-profit players. One thing this anticipated COP seems to do is foist a deja vu of COP 19, the UNFCCC Conference of Parties held in 2013 in the same country, Poland, in its capital Warsaw, a country which at the same time was playing host to the global coal summit. Poland has been listed as one of the EU’s most inefficient economies, with its carbon dioxide emissions per capita above the EU’s average emissions. In fact around 90 percent of the country’s electricity is derived from burning coal. According to a Greenpeace recent report, the coal-powered plants are responsible for almost 5,400 deaths a year and the massive Belchatow coal-powered station in Poland is the single largest polluter in the entire EU.

COP 19 was not particularly successful, as we did not seeany major progress on the Loss and Damage agenda, which was meant to be the one of the highlights of the summit. On the contrary, in the last few weeks before the COP in Warsaw, members of the Polish government in several official statements clearly stressed the role and the importance of continued coal use for the Polish economy and its competitiveness. Poland is also known for blocking any more ambitious climate policy instruments in the EU. Most alarming was the fact that the sponsors of the climate talks in Warsaw were big polluters; coal and crude oil companies, whose interests indeed came to fore at the negotiations. One would have hoped that after the summit in Warsaw in 2013, the country will adopt a more progressive approach, cut down on the use of coal and make for a climate-friendly economy, yet the coal capital still continues to be that- a coal capital. It makes one wonder why for the second time in five years, they have offered to host the COP.  Indeed the agenda pushed at the COP 19, and at the coal summit that held concurrently during the second week of the COP in Poland was that of clean coal technologies and the future of Poland’s coal. Clearly, the coal capitalwas bringing everyone to its country to convince them that they would not drop their coal, but would try to make it clean.

The question on everyone’s mind remains the same as what it was in 2013- what happens at the COP in Poland? The presidency of the COP 24 has been announced- Polish minister of Energy of a country where energy is dominated by the coal industry. Michal Kurtyka will be taking up the most critical role since the Paris Agreement in 2015 and will be playing a huge part in the furtherance of the Paris rulebook.  What remains unspoken here is whether the politics and power play of coal and his role within the Polish government will determine his disposition during the talks, as the climate politics of Poland is at the lower end of ambition. It is even more disturbing because the role of the presidency is critical; as critical, if not even more than the seat of the climate talks because the President steers the conferences and brokers deals when there are deadlocks. At COP 19 President, then Poland’s environment minister got fired because fracking was not happening fast enough. In other words, he was not pushing the country’s agenda fast enough. We await to see what will happen in December in the Silesian city of Katowice.

The hosting of the COP 24 climate talks by Poland is akin to an unrepentant sinner playing priest, taking confessions of sinners from behind the confessional, and offering reprieve for their sins. Apart from it being antithetical that a coal-powered city is hosting the climate talks, it is simply the case of a house divided against itself, and usually such cannot stand. Either the country will take the hit from this negotiations or the negotiations will. Yet, some have argued that the climate summit happening in Poland might just be a harbinger of good things, as it may mean that the coal-powered country is ready to truly commit to curbing emissions and driving a climate-friendly economy.

We cannot forget too early, however, that the Polish government has continued to iterate that it will continue to depend on coal as its major source of energy. Understandably, it is not an easy process to shift from the mainstay of a country’s economy, as it will affect jobs, energy supply and the economy in general, yet the demand is for countries like Poland to make conscious efforts towards reducing gradually their fossil fuel emissions by finding more low carbon and renewable energy options and giving them pre-eminence in the energy mix. More especially because coal is a much dirtier fuel than other fossil fuels, and apart from the environmental hazards, it places heavy demands on water resources, causes grave health hazards and emits more greenhouse gases than any other fuel.  As the COP approaches, the apprehension of a conference that will be marred by conflict of interest and a coal agenda is palpable. However, optimism says to anticipate a better outcome in Katowice than Warsaw. Whatever the case, it might be too early at this stage to tell.

• Adebayo, a lawyer and environmentalist, lives in Lagos.