Census: The need for strategic planning and foresight

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THE ultimate objective of good governance of any country is to have significant positive impact on the greater proportion of the populace. In this regard, it is very imperative to have an evidence-based strategic plan that will serve as a road map for poverty reduction, economic growth and subsequent economic development. With the new government in Nigeria, even though it is crystal clear that most people in the country are passing through economic hard times as a result of withdrawal of fuel subsidy and naira exchange rate unification, it is assumed that the new government’s intention is to deliver the economy from total collapse and to reduce the gap between the Haves and Have-nots. There is economic sense in these policies by the new government, but the present labour by the populace must bring forth poverty reduction, if not poverty eradication in Nigeria.

The only way that the suffering masses can be persuaded about the good intentions of the government is to put in place evidenced-based strategic planning and strategic foresight prepared with credible census and credible Post Enumeration Survey (PES). It is with this that the performance of every sector of the economy can be monitored and evaluated, in order to to know when any sector or government agency has derailed during the performance of its mandate towards in poverty reduction. Based on the mandate of each government establishment, the establishment should be able to provide the present position of impact performance, in terms of the proportion of the population of country tbeing covered, that would serve as a baseline and set a target of ultimate performance at the end of the tenure of the government. It is for this reason that the conduct of Population and housing census and PES should be most paramount to the present government.

It is better to examine the meaning of Strategic plan and strategic foresight so as to really appreciate how importance it is in present dispensation in Nigeria. A strategic plan is a whole plan of an organisation or government that stipulates what to be achieved within a stipulated year,with different indicators (Input Indicator; Process Indicator; Output Indicator; Outcome Indicator and Impact Indicator) for monitoring and evaluation of the plan, given the objective or mandate of the organisation or of the government, The plan includes activities to be carried out to achieve the target in the plan. The activities can be costed or may not necessarily be costed. The strategic plan of each government establishment will articulate development status, challenges and opportunities, as well as the strategic direction, development priorities and implementation strategies within the four-year vision framework of the present government. The strategic plan will clearly state the key development objectives and outline the priority programmes for achieving these objectives. It also builds on the government establishment’s strengths and opportunities, including natural resources and committed people, to address the challenges of tackling poverty and human development indicators.

With the availability of credible and reliable census figures, the formulation of the plan will consider poverty, human development and infrastructure provision to reinvigorate the development that is needed. Poverty and human development issues are multifaceted and this calls for coherent, comprehensive and evidence-based strategic planning by every governmental department and ministry. This strategic plan will also set out the road map that will direct the future course of action by the government establishment. Each ministry and government agency’s strategic plan will articulate the mission, vision and strategic goals and objectives as well as the strategies that the government establishment intends to follow in the next four years. The strategic plan will enable every government establishment to focus on the target that is based on constitutional mandate and helps to define the direction in which government must travel, and aids in establishing realistic objectives and goals that are in line with the vision and mission charted out for it to have impact on greater proportion of the populace and not necessarily embarking on white elephant projects. Poverty reduction strategy includes increased access to social services and provision of socio-economic infrastructural facilities provision. At the community level, emphasis will be placed on behaviour change and community/beneficiary participation. At the service delivery level, access to services, service qualityand use, and human resource management will be improved.

It can be argued that Nigeria has always developing Strategic plan, and nothing has come out of it. This is not peculiar to Nigeria alone but most developing Nations of the World. The reason for this, is high level of levity, maladministration, mismanagement, nepotism, corruption etc. that often embedded in the implementation of the Strategic Plan. Added to this, is absence of credible and reliable Population and Housing Census data with strategic foresight during preparation of the strategic plan. Strategic foresight is an organised, systematic way of looking beyond the expected to engage with uncertainty and complexity. Strategic foresight is critical to effective strategic planning in volatile and fast-moving environments like Nigeria, and it is essential in moving linear problem-solving approaches.

Foresight methods can be used at all stages of policy and planning cycles in a range of ways to address different kinds of policy outcomes. A foresight-based approach is instrumental in ensuring that strategic policies and plans, such as National strategies, State-level visions, local development plans, or frameworks for development cooperation, are developed to ensure a more equitable future, and incorporate diverse voices and perspectives towards perpetual Poverty elimination, rapid economic growth and subsequent economic development.

Instead of attempting to provide solutions for only current challenges, strategic foresight encourages decision makers to explore the likely nature of future challenges. Policymakers are often more comfortable projecting from the past rather than imagining the future, and past strategic planning approaches in Nigeria and many developing Countries often incorrectly assume that the future will be an incremental iteration of the past or the present. This is reason why the world is not on track to achieve the 2030 Agenda. A strategic foresight approach starts by exploring the future, typically beyond the planning horizon, before considering implications for the present. This is a very simple but powerful reframing that disrupts and opens new perspectives.

When strategic foresight is integrated into strategic planning it is transformative because it draws on qualitative, as well as quantitative, data; it takes a systemic, holistic approach based on an assumption that drivers will continue to interact with each other; and it is based on plural futures (rather than for example, a single model). It should be noted that it is projection of available credible Census data that will pave way for most appropriate and efficient strategic foresight.

The risks of not including an explicit space for strategic foresight in a strategic planning or policymaking process are: First, exclusion of externalities: focusing intently on internal organizational features and overlooking external environmental changes, which are important but harder to control or predict, that is why the withdrawal subsidy is creating heavy burden on the populace, government did not consider the externality of the withdrawal. Second, Premature convergence: quickly agreeing (or assuming agreement) on the shape of the future (and appropriate response) due to group dynamics, which can be the result of similar points of view. Third, Bias towards the foreseeable: failing to plan for the future because of present uncertainty; or deciding that the future will be similar to the present.

Therefore, Strategic foresight is highly imperative in preparation of Strategic Plan for Nigeria in this present economic position in Nigeria. Countries like Canada, Finland, Singapore and the United Kingdom have embedded Strategic foresight in preparation Strategic Planning and have established units and capabilities to ensure longer-term thinking. This is why the GDP of thesedeveloped Nations kept on increasing unabated and that of developing Nations that hardly have credible Census data result to produce evidence-based Strategic Plan that entails Strategic foresight, kept on deteriorating every now and then.

It can then be seen from the above that Nigeria is critically in need of Population and Housing Census and Post Enumeration Survey (PES) now, if Nigeria is to move forwards and if the new government is actually concerned about the poverty reduction, economic growth and economic development. Without credible and reliable Census and PES, any policy formulation and implementation in the Country would amount to wasting of resources of the Country, would be effort in futility in Poverty alleviation and Economic Development that would bring succor to large and greater proportion of the Populace. No matter how brilliant and beautiful initiated policy or project may be, delaying in conduct of Census and PES in Nigeria will be very inimical and precarious to the efficient and effective performance of every sector of Nigeria.The only way out to put an end the vicious circleof Poverty in Nigeria is to conduct credible Census and PES. This would enable the 3 tiers of Government to put in place an evidence-based Strategic Plan with incorporation of Strategic foresight. The Strategic Plan will be totally inclusive, for. giving the Census figure, with level of credibility that would be provided by the credible PES, the baseline would be determined by every Ministry and government Agency, even the private sector, NGOs and International Agency and the Target to achieve at the end of four years of this new government would be stated. Formidable team of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) would be made available to put performance on track towards achievement of Stated Target of the establishment.

Nigeria Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) of 2017 -2020 did not attained its stated objectives because there was dearth of demographic data and adequate Population and Housing Census data. As stated in the ongoing Nigeria National Development Plan of 2023-2027, ‘’ With the ERGP, while some progress was made in achieving the vision Goals, the Country’s ranking, in term of the size GDP, only improved marginally from30th to 27th position, as against the Vision’s target of becoming one of the World’s top 20 Economies”. Hence, no significant economic progress that can cause Poverty reduction can be made without empirical evidence-based data, that can only be available through credible Census result and reliable PES.In the same vein, the present National Development Plan 2023-2027 can hardly have significant impact in poverty reduction of populace because of lack integration of credible Census data into the National Plan.

Considering the above, it then goes without saying that all hands must be on deck to conduct Housing and Population Census and PES Nigeria now. President Bola Tinubu should proclaim the date of the Census and provide required financial support to the National Population Commission to complete the preparation and conduct the unprecedented digital Housing and Population Census and subsequentPost Enumeration Survey (PES), that will serve as the corner stone for the preparation of an evidence-based Strategic Plan incorporated with Strategic foresight, so that the four years and possibly beyond tenure of this present government will be meaningful in poverty alleviation, economic growth and eventual economic development to the Nation.

Komolafe, a PES specialist, is a former census specialist with UNFPA, former planning specialist with UNDP and former Deputy Director with the National Population Commission.

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