As battle for Lugard House peaks, who becomes next Kogi gov?

As the governorship election holds in Kogi State on Saturday, KUNLE ODEREMI writes on the battle across the senatorial districts.

The D-Day is almost here. In about 72 hours, the people of Kogi State will file out to exercise their rights on who succeeds Governor Yahaya Bello in Lugard House, Lokoja. There is frenzied interest and enthusiasm about the election. This is partly due to the huge logistic arrangements already deployed by the authorities at different levels ahead of the poll.

The election holding on Saturday in the state is significant in many respects. One is the fact that Kogi is a cultural melting pot of the country, due to the diversity of its human population. Coupled with this is that Kogi acts as the bridge between the northern axis and the southern part of the country. These and many other unique features of the confluence state make the politics of Kogi thick and engaging. So, there is so much enthusiasm and gusto on issues that have played out during the electioneering and are bound to influence the choice of the next governor.

There is the texture of pedigree, cognate experience and competence of candidates. The other factor is the need for consolidation of the gains of governance over the years; some have also identified imperativeness of inclusivity in the emerging political dispensation at the national level. Of course, many have also talked about the most likely positive impact of the alliances and realignment of forces that have taken place before the election. Sustenance of cohesion within the structures of the political parties at the state level is equally considered strategic in the attainment of victory at the poll.

The leading candidates for the election  include: Alhaji Usman Ahmed Ododo of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Senator Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Muritala Ajaka, Social Democratic Party, (SDP); Honourable Leke Abejide, African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Usman Jibrin of the Accord. Electioneering for the poll has been marked by major issues, as well as the mundane and occasional skirmishes between supporters of the candidates in a few places. The countdown to the poll has also been characterised by a mass exodus from one party to the other with the APC seeming to be the major gainers. The movements were largely from the PDP and SDP as the campaigns assumed a fever pitch.  Thus, the PDP appears depleted in the state, as many of the key stakeholders have aligned with the ruling party in the state, including governorship aspirants and their supporters.  The defectors included members of the Executive Committee of the PDP, as the bitterness and rancour caused by the conduct of primary subsisted. Some of the intra-party feuds predated the  primary to choose the standard-bearer of PDP for the election. But some party faithful claim that the schism was worsened by the outcome of the primary. While some accused the PDP leadership of failing to deploy appropriate intra party mechanism to manage the crisis well, others believed that the issue of ego and inordinate ambition was the major impediment in the quest for truce and reconciliation after the primary.

Kogi West

All eyes are on Kogi West senatorial district in the poll. APC supporters in the area are said to be upbeat. The district is the centre of agitation for a governor of Okun ethnic extraction. But there is lack of compromise among those promoting the agenda. So, the APC is counting on the huge electoral value of its chieftains and supporters in the district to win, despite the agitation in some quarters for Okun to take the front seat now. According to an analyst of the politics of Kogi, “The people on the field from there don’t have large following in real terms. Yet, they are still splitting votes. They won’t step down for each other and even if they do, it won’t amount to anything significant. The ADC candidate has won House of Representatives election twice but his strength lies in his constituency. However, for governorship, he doesn’t have the spread and structure.”  It is also believed that the strong ADC members who were with him during his struggle for a seat in the House have substantially moved to the APC, including members of the executive committee of the opposition party. Another pundit noted that the movement of the former deputy governor of the state, Architect Yomi Awoniyi to the APC was huge asset for the ruling party in Kogi West.

Kogi East

It is another veritable ground for a titanic battle. It promises to be a contest of will and pedigree beyond what some have described as a battle of wits that marked the campaigns. In the quest for more impactful incursions, other candidates have raised the bar on the politics of issues to endear themselves to the electorate. Their mission is to weaken the chances of the SDP candidate who hails from the district. There is deliberate policy of promoting issues that bother on the welfare of the people and the progress of the state thus making ethnic sentiments and inclinations pale into insignificance. In Igala land, there are some forces that have remained calculated and not a former Chief of Naval Staff, who is the Accord Party candidate, remains calculated in his campaign. He is said to have more following, especially at the grassroots and with the elite.

There is apprehension that a lot of voters might  be disenfranchised, especially with the issues surrounding the campaign of the SDP candidate, so, for those who know what is on ground too, they might not want to gamble. The other issue surrounds his deputy. Some observers and critics are saying that the current situation could deny SDP the chance to field a candidate since it a joint ticket. In other words, what affects the deputy affects the joint ticket.

The series of alliances lately led to a number of former appointees of Wada defecting to APC en bloc. The deputy to the former governor is officially with APC now. So, at best, the votes there will be split and pundits are predicting that APC will likely win because of strong structure and commitment of party stakeholders. The APC will be counting on some prominent party leaders from the area to triumph at the poll. The Director General of the APC Governorship Campaign and Minister of Steel Development, Shaibu Abubakar Audu, is one of such heavyweights. The APC hopes to harvest a quantum of votes from the East based on his political sagacity and pedigree. According to another observer, “From their activities, his father’s loyalists and the family are genuinely with the APC in the struggle. The deputy governor, who was in the race for governorship is also rooting for Ododo and APC, despite initial talks that he may not be happy. And they are harvesting big wigs from the opposition parties, daily. Many former senators are with the ruling party. Former governors from the East are with the APC though they are not showing publicly. We saw the son of Ibrahim Idris the other time at the APC rally, defecting publicly.”

Kogi Central

For Kogi Central, the contest also conjures a straight fight among power brokers in the state. While the APC is determined to retain the seat at the Government House by consolidating its grip on the votes of the district, the opposition candidates are not giving up the fight to create a upset at the poll. The election is a referendum on the impact of the Bello administration on the district. Besides, it is the base and constituency of the APC candidate. He is bound to enjoy the luxury attached to the factor of incumbency, aside being a son of the soil.   But the PDP is still savouring the victory of its senatorial candidate at the National Assembly election petition tribunal.

Violence

The INEC, law enforcement agencies and other stakeholders have consistently stressed the need for a peaceful poll. They have made concerted efforts to avoid violence saying election should not be regarded as a war. Governor Bello and the APC candidate Ododo, have led the crusade for a congenial environment for eligible citizens to make the right choice. Groups such as the Africa Youth Growth Foundation joined the fray through its founder and chief executive officer, Dr Arome Salifu. It is obvious why all the major actors are vehement in the advocacy for a peaceful election. They are conscious of some untoward events that characterised the conduct of elections in the state and are determined to avert a recurrence.  And as the number one citizen of the state, Bello is leading the crusade for positivity.

Endorsements

All the candidates have received the endorsement of groups and individuals. Ethnic nationalities have not been left out in giving their blessings to the candidates their bid to become the next chief executive of Kogi. But suffice to add that Ododo appears to have received more of such endorsements from mass-based groups, prominent individuals and influential leaders of thought and elder statesmen. For instance, the APC candidate received a galaxy of endorsements from foremost traditional rulers, civil society groups, and professional bodies, as well as artisans and traders, members of the Fulani community in the state. Each of them offered reasons for their actions. The spokesman of the Fulani community, Professor Mohammed Abdullahi, for example, said their endorsement of Ododo was arrived at after interactions with all the candidates for the election.  According to him, a vote for the APC on Saturday is a vote for consolidation of the laudable achievements of Governor Bello especially the infrastructural development of Lokoja. His words: “We have interacted with the other candidates and we found him (Ahmed Ododo) to be the most qualified among them. Secondly, all the projects embarked upon by Governor Yahya Bello must not stop. We want Ododo to continue with Governor Bello’s mission to rebuild Kogi State. Governor Bello’s administration has been generous to us. His government is a government that accommodates all, irrespective of your tribe or religious affiliations.”

The stake

The stake is high for Governor Bello at the election. He has done his bit and he is confident that APC will win the poll by a wide margin based on the unprecedented achievements of the party under his administration.  Speaking through his deputy, Chief Edward Onoja, he vowed to work within the directives of President Bola Tinubu in achieving a violence-free election, noting that his administration had made security topmost priority since assumption of office.  “Having done well in all sectors of the economy of the State, particularly in security, we’re very optimistic that it will encourage our people to turn out enmasse and exercise their civic duty. Our outstanding achievements, which are visible, will speak and work for us, with the greatest of assurances that we will win overwhelmingly. We will cooperate with the Armed Forces in ensuring a peaceful election and also provide a level playing field for all contenders and for the people to turn out en masse to vote.  Kogi people are peaceful. We have, since the coming of our administration, made security of lives and properties a priority. We want to assure our President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of stability, peace before, during and after the governorship election.”

Lawyers and activists are backing Ododo. The Igbo Community Association (ICA) said its members are fully committed to giving bloc votes to the APC and its candidate.  Their spokesman and coordinator of the platform called the  Igbo Groups Backing Ododo (IGBO), Honourable Moses Okezie-Okafor, appreciated Yahaya Bello administration’s consistent friendship to the Igbo community.  The legal practitioner who hails from Anambra State, said he served for over  seven years in the Kogi State Executive Council courtesy of Governor Yahaya Bello’s merit-based leadership. He noted that Bello’s achievements span all sectors and constituencies in the state, especially education, infrastructure and healthcare.  He believes that the APC’s candidate’s slogan of ‘Continuity and Consolidation’ is therefore founded on solid realities. Similarly, the President of the ICA in Lokoja, Chief Sunday Nwachukwu, who led delegation to the governor, assured of the community’s support for Ododo.  In appreciating them, the candidate highlighted the long-standing friendship with Ndigbo and promised to sustain and enhance the administration’s accomplishments if elected. Ododo assured the Igbo leaders of continued delivery of democratic benefits to Kogi State and increased involvement of Ndigbo in the government. The state Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs,  Deedat Ozigis, stood in for the governor at the occasion. He advised them to maintain their focus and enterprise, as well as vote for Ododo in order to keep alive the accomplishments of the Bello administration.

Melaye of the PDP is also confident of victory. He wants the people of Kogi to be ready to make the necessary change through the ballot box. He also promised to transform many critical and strategic sector of the economy towards empowering the people of the state. His camp has announced that there is a synergy between the PDP and the Labour Party for the purpose of the election. The national leadership of the party shares his optimism that the party could bounce back to power come Saturday.

The camps of the candidates are equally in a dizzying mood that it is time to create an electoral upset. Their confidence is based on what they said their candidates represent: a break from the past. But who does the cap fit based on the pedigree of the candidates and the capacity of party structures?

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