If mail-in is included in Nigeria’s electoral culture, which allows for ballots to be cast ahead of elections and in the comfort of voters’ homes, former Anambra governor and presidential candidate of Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi, will likely be the projected winner of the 2023 contest. The controversial voting system which largely won current American President, Joe Biden the 2020 contest, isn’t without its liabilities, one of which is the possibility of vote-dumps, an argument propelling the claim by former President Donald Trump that Biden and the Democrats stole the presidency.
With or without vote-dumps, Obi would still likely win, considering that his base, who have largely saturated the social media space, are those who want to do things at their pleasure, more so, in the comfort of their homes, clubs, bars, social events and football viewing centers. As long as you aren’t going to disrupt their “enjoyment”, the rest is simple. Well, Nigerians are yet to be constitutionally-permitted to vote from their homes and the generation rooting for him, doesn’t want wahala, though desirous of the shared prosperity, that he has the potential to engender. This is a crucial disconnect that Obi and his handlers must fix, to transform the noisy approval on the social media to much-needed votes on election day.
For reasons best known to those tweaking Nigeria’s electoral law, the much-hyped technological introductions into the electoral process, has largely been at the level of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while voters who are the main participants in the process, are continually left to the vagaries of the polling booth. An introduction as simple as mail-in, would substantially eradicate the embarrassing merchandising that has now come to define voting days in Nigeria. Yes, some election-day voters, would still show up and they could still be bought, but the mess would not be as widespread as it is today. While not ruling out door-to-door vote-buying, since the data of those requesting to be mailed ballot papers can be easily accessed and should be accessible for accountability and election integrity, those behind-the-door deals, would not put voters in the current quandary of dibo ko se’be (vote and be paid soup money), which compels them to show their ballots or even take photos on their phones, to collect their balance, after presenting evidence of voting for the candidate who is paying. Yes, politicians are a desperate lot and oath-taking could be demanded behind closed doors for as little as N10,000 but the fact that the ballot can be cast and sent without the one paying breathing from their shoulders, is a positive that voters, could still vote their conscience somehow and outcomes will fairly represent, the wish and will of the majority of voters, not induced to deliver for the one with the deepest pocket, to spend. Right now, what we have is a demand and supply arrangement, wherein the rich control the entire space, buying up party nomination and voters’ will. Call it crass electoral capitalism.
Without doubt more people will also vote, if mail-in, is in the mix. Of course, there must be functional mail delivery and retrieval system to power this innovation and thankfully, there are enough biometric capturing, for banking services, for National Identification Number (NIN), for voting itself (PVC), for residency registration in places like Lagos, for vehicle registration et al, to cover for any identification lapses. The system should be fraud proof. Except the political class which makes electoral laws, wants to keep the process away from modernity, mail-in ballot, should be considered the next time, the lawmakers are working on the electoral act.
If for nothing at all, the fact that fewer voters would be exposed to election-day thuggery and the painfully-long queues at polling booths, should encourage a proper consideration of giving voters more latitude in performing their civic duty. Elite have been consistently knocked for shunning poll booths on election days and for good reasons too, because you can’t stay back home and keep complaining that the market isn’t well organized. But is it not wisdom to first count the cost of exposing oneself to a process that is potentially bloody and highly-inflammable? Yes, outlier elections can be peaceful because all security resources usually go into making them a shining democratic credential for the government of the day. But one can’t say that for a general election and the one in view, is likely to be bloody, especially in the strongholds of the leading presidential candidates, where mathematical permutations of victory’s threshold, could compel criminal efforts to shut others out.
In Lagos, such scenario is likely and it is a brutal consideration, to ensure the base of a certain candidate, doesn’t spoil the “fun” for the home-boy who is being tipped to harvest about four million votes in his backyard, despite the fact that since democracy resumed in 1999, his ruling clique hasn’t delivered up to a million votes for presidential candidates of choice. His own claim the context is different now. The kingmaker wants to be king and all corners, including those inhabited by supporters of other candidates, must be combed for votes. It is either the votes are in for the homeboy or they are not in any column. Areas where other candidates have most of the supporters are likely to be battlegrounds from dawn to dusk on election day. Imagine, gunshots booming from 3am to 6pm. Trust security agents, they are likely to look away, after being heavily settled. Their ripe kola is now a major expenditure in election budget for candidates, desirous of winning the Nigerian way. Imagine all the rush to collect PVC and then not being able to vote, or having the cast ballots destroyed before counting, as was the case in 2015 when the Igbo community in Lagos was shown how loyalty to “the landlord” should not be divided. It is very easy to sort out the surge witnessed in PVC registration in Igbo-dominated areas of the state and among Christians. Everything points at a robust support for Peter Obi. The two major considerations of region and religion are beginning to count in his favour, but only on paper. As currently situated, the electoral process is too compromised for the support to translate into concrete victory. Were it to be America where the system is slightly reliable, a nationally-recognizable name and face, is certain to put candidates like Obi in pole position, but this is Nigeria, where the best candidate doesn’t have to win, a la Olusegun Obasanjo.
Obi’s growing appeal, especially in the South and Christendom should ordinarily be a threat to other leading candidates, who are expected to split Muslim votes if the stance of CAN and PFN hold on Christians voting Christians. But the variables are too numerous to declare a winner.
`It is blatantly premature at this point. You have to be able to cast the votes first and there are plans to frustrate. Then, the votes need special protections to count. Compromised electoral officers and security agents are major hurdles to cross. Then, the big challenge of desperate front row leaders of the political class. They want Nigerians to be ever obedient to them. This new national anthem of “Obidient” is strange to them and they will do all they can, to stop the music.
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