By Omabuwa Mene-Ejegi
Climate change has evolved into an urgent global emergency, with rising temperatures and extreme weather events threatening human and ecological systems. For Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, the stakes are particularly high. From desertification in the Sahel to recurrent floods in the Niger Delta, the country faces significant climate-related challenges. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Nigeria has committed to cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 per cent unconditionally and 47 per cent conditionally by 2030. However, these commitments require more than policy declarations — they demand measurable, technology-driven action.
Traditional emission monitoring in Nigeria is plagued by fragmentation, delay, and inefficiency. Agencies, like the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), and the Department of Climate Change (DCC), collect environmental data. However, these data sources often operate in silos, lack interoperability, and are underutilised in national policy formulation.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) offer transformative potential in closing this gap. In countries with limited infrastructure and high climate vulnerability, AI provides a scalable and efficient way to manage emissions, predict risks, and enforce compliance. By combining real-time data collection, automated analysis, and predictive insights, AI can help Nigeria shift from reactive to proactive climate governance.
According to the World Resources Institute, Nigeria emitted approximately 127 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) in 2021. Major sources include energy production from gas flaring, agriculture, deforestation, and transport. Yet these emissions are poorly tracked, making regulatory responses inadequate. AI-enabled platforms can change this by synthesising data from satellites, sensors, and industrial logs into real-time emissions inventories. These systems, already in use in China and the United States, empower governments and industries to act based on accurate, up-to-date information.
Satellite imagery analysis is a prime example of AI’s power. Deep learning models can identify deforestation, gas flaring, and land-use changes with high precision. Brazil’s deployment of AI to track illegal logging in the Amazon demonstrates what’s possible. Nigeria can adopt similar tools using open-access platforms like Copernicus and SERVIR-West Africa to detect emissions hotspots and enforce environmental rules effectively.
AI also offers advantages in industrial monitoring. In contrast to periodic surveys and spreadsheet-based audits, AI models can continuously analyse emissions data from factories, refineries, and power plants. This enables autonomous industry compliance and targeted regulatory intervention. China’s Smart Environmental Protection Platform, for instance, monitors over 20,000 facilities in real time using AI, dramatically improving enforcement and transparency.
Another area where AI can make a difference is in energy optimisation. Nigeria’s grid system is notoriously inefficient, with over 40 per cent of electricity lost during transmission. AI tools can forecast energy demand, balance supply across grids, and enhance the integration of renewable sources like solar and wind. Germany’s use of AI for grid stability and renewable forecasting serves as a benchmark that Nigeria could adapt.
Urban transportation is another emissions-heavy sector in Nigeria. Cities like Lagos and Abuja face severe congestion, which not only wastes fuel but also contributes to poor air quality. AI-driven traffic management systems, such as adaptive signals and smart routing, can reduce congestion and emissions. Rwanda’s pilot initiatives in this space have yielded measurable improvements in travel time and fuel use.
In agriculture, Nigeria’s largest employer and a key emitter of methane and nitrous oxide, AI can support sustainable practices. Precision agriculture powered by AI and drones can monitor field-level emissions, reduce overuse of fertilisers, and optimise water use. India’s success in applying AI to reduce methane emissions from rice farming is a compelling case study for Nigeria’s agricultural transformation.
Disaster preparedness is another critical application. In a country as flood-prone as Nigeria, AI-based early warning systems can predict extreme weather events and mitigate losses. IBM’s atmospheric AI models in China, which forecast air pollution and severe weather, have shown how predictive analytics can protect both people and infrastructure.
Globally, countries are already integrating AI into their climate strategies. In the United States, NASA and NOAA use AI to process satellite data, while Project Carbon Mapper identifies invisible methane leaks. The EU’s AI4Copernicus project fuses AI with Earth observation data to track land-use and heat anomalies. In Canada, AI tools are used to forecast emissions trends, helping shape its carbon tax policies. These examples offer Nigeria actionable templates, provided the right enabling environment is established.
However, several barriers threaten to stall AI adoption in Nigeria’s climate strategy. Data access remains a major challenge. Many relevant datasets are inaccessible or unstandardised, limiting their usefulness in AI applications. Infrastructure deficiencies — especially in rural areas where agricultural and biomass emissions are highest — further hinder deployment. Unreliable electricity and poor internet connectivity make it difficult to implement AI solutions at scale.
Moreover, Nigeria’s growing tech ecosystem has yet to fully engage with climate applications. AI expertise is largely concentrated in fintech, healthtech, and marketing. Environmental AI remains an overlooked niche in academic and innovation circles. This talent gap must be addressed through educational reforms and incentives for research in climate tech.
On the regulatory front, Nigeria lacks a clear legal framework for AI use in public governance. Without standards on data protection, transparency, and accountability, large-scale adoption remains risky. Investors and innovators are less likely to engage without legal certainty. Additionally, many AI tools, especially those involving remote sensing, require high upfront capital. Nigeria’s climate innovation funding mechanisms remain limited, offering few incentives to startups or institutions in this space.
To harness AI’s climate potential, Nigeria must pursue a coordinated strategy. This begins with the development of a national climate data platform that consolidates inputs from satellites, IoT sensors, and industrial logs. Such a platform should be accessible to regulators, researchers, and developers alike. Inter-agency collaboration is also essential. Government ministries must engage AI startups, research institutions, and private sector players in co-developing solutions tailored to local needs.
Furthermore, a national open-data policy is urgently needed to ensure environmental datasets are available, standardised, and interoperable. Educational institutions should introduce specialised AI-for-climate courses and fund interdisciplinary research programs. Scholarships, fellowships, and global exchanges will help grow a pool of AI professionals focused on sustainability. Finally, legislation should be enacted to govern AI use in climate governance, clarifying data ownership, ethical obligations, and public accountability.
Nigeria stands at a turning point. The climate crisis is already here, but so is an opportunity to lead in technological innovation. AI is not a panacea, but it offers powerful tools to enhance transparency, precision, and responsiveness in emissions management. It can enable Nigeria to meet its climate goals efficiently while creating new pathways for sustainable development.
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With bold leadership, policy foresight, and investment in digital infrastructure and human capital, Nigeria can turn its environmental vulnerability into a climate technology advantage. In doing so, the country not only protects its future but also positions itself as a continental leader in climate-smart innovation. The time to act is now.
Omabuwa Mene-Ejegi, data scientist and environmental sustainability advocate, writes from Port Harcourt.
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