2027: Five top issues that may shape ADC zoning

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Nigeria is navigating a complex political landscape as it prepares for the 2027 elections, particularly with its zoning strategy for selecting candidates, especially for the presidential ticket.

Zoning, a practice in Nigerian politics to rotate key political positions across geopolitical zones for equitable representation, is critical for the ADC as it integrates high-profile politicians like Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rotimi Amaechi to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Below are five top issues that may shape ADC’s zoning policy:

1. Pressure to Balance Regional Representation

The ADC’s coalition with prominent figures like Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rotimi Amaechi creates pressure to zone the presidential ticket fairly across regions. The party must balance zoning with maintaining unity, considering an open primary or specific zone allocation. The National Executive Committee (NEC) will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

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2. Ethnic Sensitivities and National Unity

Nigeria’s diverse ethnic landscape makes zoning a delicate issue. The ADC’s constitution emphasises inclusivity, but zoning decisions may favor larger ethnic groups, potentially marginalising smaller ones. The party must craft a policy that promotes national unity and addresses ethnic tensions.

3. Zoning vs. Merit-Based Selection

The ADC prioritises grassroots-based structure and merit-driven governance over traditional zoning. However, public sentiment suggests skepticism about moving away from zoning, which could impact the party’s appeal in regions expecting rotational representation. The ADC must balance its ideology with voter expectations.

4. Weak Institutional Capacity

With limited National Assembly members and no governors or senators, the ADC lacks the institutional strength to implement zoning effectively. The party’s reliance on defections for growth and limited presence in states like Oyo hampers its ability to enforce equitable zoning across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

5. Youth and Gender Inclusion in Zoning Decisions

The ADC’s commitment to allocating 50% of leadership positions to youth and women, as championed by leaders like Rauf Aregbesola, adds complexity to its zoning strategy. Integrating these demographics into zoned roles, such as gubernatorial or National Assembly candidacies, requires balancing regional representation with the party’s progressive agenda.