EXPECTEDLY, results from the six South West States in the just concluded Presidential elections conformed largely to pre-election predictions and permutations that said the region was going to be a hotly contested arena between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). At the end, while APC won in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and Osun states, PDP took Oyo and Ondo states. Nevertheless, PDP may consider its outing in the South West states as a confirmation of the waning influence of APC in the zone. The fact that, in all the six states, both parties ran neck by neck and none was able to completely make a mince meal of the other in any one state must by now give PDP strong hope going into the approaching governorship and state assembly elections. Lagos, Ogun and Oyo are up for grabs in the next round of elections scheduled for Saturday March 9. Watchers of South-West Politics in the last one year expect Lagos and Oyo to witness a keen battle between incumbent APC and flagship opposition, PDP. Unless a miracle happens, the intrigues that shaped the results of the presidential elections in the two states are still firmly entrenched and will determine pendulum of victory in both states. In this regard, it may be safe to predict that Oyo will most likely go the way of PDP with APC retaining Lagos by a thin margin.
Ogun state, however, presents a different scenario as all factors on ground point to a 3-horse race, with the outgoing governor Ibikunle Amosun holding the ace when the chips are down. In addition to APC and PDP, another potential winner in the state is the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), a party that came alive in the state in the aftermath of the internal crisis foisted on the state APC chapter by the national leadership of the party. Suffice to say, the whole nation knows that in Ogun State today, Amosun is the soul of both APC and APM. He is in APC (in fact, he won the Senatorial contest for Ogun Central on the APC platform) and his political family populate and enliven APM in the state. A proper analysis of the slim margin of victory APC recorded over PDP in the presidential election would reveal that Amosun’s political dexterity and faithful, uncompromised commitment to the Buhari re-election project plus the adoption of candidate Buhari by APM as its presidential candidate saved APC from being disgraced by PDP in the state. While candidate Buhari won throughout the LGAs in Ogun Central and Ogun West – two Senatorial Districts that are majorly controlled jointly by the Amosun political family camped in both APC and APM – the party was trounced by PDP in most of the LGAs in Ogun East where the political strength of the Vice President and the APC governorship candidate appear to be unable to withstand the combined PDP muscles that dictate political tone in the Ijebu/Remo divisions.
The above picture gives a somewhat clear indication of what to expect in the gubernatorial contest in the state as the March 9 D-day approaches. Any honest evaluation of happenings across the three Senatorial Zones of Ogun State today could reveal that APC, just like PDP, has continued to hemorrhage from the acrimonious process that threw up its candidate, Dapo Abiodun who has ceaselessly been rejected by the camp of the incumbent governor. As things stand with the party in the State, the Amosun camp controls the key strata of its structure in Ogun Central and Ogun West. So, without the support of this camp, APC is effectively tossed in the state. The planting of a huge majority of Amosun’s foot soldiers and political associates in APMhas however created another vibrant and veritable vote-winning machinery for Amosun and his group, thus enhancing their huge tentacles across the grassroots segments in the state. APM, to all intents and purposes, appears to be eminently placed to be used by the Amosun camp to send a political message in the direction of the APC national leadership.
Feelers show that in anticipation of the governorship election in March, a large number of APC members in the stateare ready toformally cross over to APM since the restraining factor before was the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari which has now been achieved. Thus, unless a major change happens, it is difficult to predict that majority of APC members, especially in Ogun Central and Ogun West Senatorial districts, would work for the party’s victory in the governorship elections given the suppressed bitterness at the process that produced Dapo Abiodun as the party’s governorship candidatein a manner that showed perceived sense of injustice and high handedness of the national party exco.From now on, everybody appears primed to vote their conscience in the governorship and State assembly elections. With Governor Amosun’s popularity across Ogun Central clearly demonstrated in the presidential and senatorial elections, his camp appears buoyed to work harder in order to trounce all other political parties, including his own APC, to control and deliver huge votes from the zone for their preferred candidate that is carrying the APM flag.Even the governor has not hidden his next line of action, as, immediately after the February 23rd elections, he called his political troops to go back to the grassroots and continue the effort to achieve their 3rd objective which is getting Hon. Kunle Akinlade of APM to emerge the next governor of the state. The first objective was the re-election of President Buhari while the second was the Ogun Central Senatorial seat. Both goals were achieved flawlessly.
The demonstrated effectiveness of the Amosun political machinery coupled with the great enthusiasm of the Yewa people who dominate Ogun West Senatorial zone to have their son Akinlade of APM occupy the Ogun Government House for the first time in the history of the State has thus created a dominant political alliance between Ogun West and Ogun East Senatorial zones. The votes from Ogun West, presumably, would be overwhelmingly shared between Adekunle Akinlade of APM and Gboyega Isiaka of ADC. Both are Yewa indigenes. However, Akinlade has proved to be more accepted by the masses, given his appropriation of the well-oiled Amosun grassroots machinery and his highly successful door-to-door campaign across the zone. Therefore, as at today, in two of the three Senatorial Zones in the State – Ogun Central and Ogun West – Akinlade and APM appear set to coast home to victory. And, as it happened with the presidential election, APC’s Dapo Abiodun and PDP’s Buruji Kashamu would battle for the Ogun East votes. Even with the Federal might represented by the vice president, Abiodun will be trounced by Kashamu in the zone.
To any discernible eye therefore, Akinlade and APM seem to have been gifted good electoral fortunes by the unfathomable demoniSation of Amosun by the APC national leadership. By and large, the massive grassroots voter education strategy of the APM candidate which generated huge returns in votes for President Buhari in the February 23rd election will be tested again on March 9. All over the state, the average voter has learnt that “iboakokoti Buhari ati Amosun nionigbale; iboeekeji, onipakinidede won” meaning on the first voting day, it is for Buhari and Amosun under APC (the broom party); on the second voting day, it is for APM (the cassava party) all through.
- Koyejo is the Organising Secretary of Amalgamated Ogun Youth Political Frontier, Abeokuta, Ogun State
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