ALTHOUGH the general election is not due until February 2019, preparations are expected to hot up from this year, especially with prelude governorship elections coming up in Osun and Ekiti states. The two big parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will want to use the elections to test strength and measure acceptance and popularity in the build up to the general election the following year.
Apart from issues such as the health of the economy, performance of the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari in the key sectors and more, the truism that every politics is local will also factor in the national political play in 2019. Thus, events in zones will largely shape the national landscape as the elections gain momentum.
Consequently, political actors in the key zones who will largely shape the direction and the outcome of voting in their respectively zones are hereunder x-rayed.
North-West zone
As the zone with the highest number of registered voters, there is no downplaying the fact that it will be the hottest zone where the election is expected to be fiercely contested. It was the zone that gave Buhari victory over Dr Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP. But is the zone now what it was in 2015? The answer remains to be seen.
Some will argue that Buhari still has a cult-like following in the zone, especially with the massive crowd that welcomed him to Kano State late last year. But others counter that the cohesion and coherence seen in the zone in the 2015 elections have been greatly undermined. But with the release of over 2,000 names of federal agency and board appointees by the Federal Government last week, President Buhari’s strategy is to soothe frayed nerves within the party as another round of elections beckons.
Kwankwaso
In Kano State, where the largest votes came from in 2015, there has been a big schism in the APC family. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, immediate past governor of the state and Senator representing Kano Central in the Red Chamber is in bitter disagreement with the Governor Abdulahi Ganduje whom he installed. No sooner had the government set sail than Senator Kwankwaso raised the alarm that operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) were being used to hound him. The State House of Assembly also passed a resolution directing government officials to remove all insignias of Kwankwasiya Movement from all public schools and institutions. The move was said to have been influenced by the governor. Following this closely was a series of public fights between loyalists of Kwankwaso and the governor.
On the heels of the defection of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar to the PDP, speculations were rife that Kwankwaso might join Atiku in the umbrella party. How things pan out politically in Kano will go a long way in determining the shape of event in the zone.
El-Rufai versus Sen Sani
It is no longer news that there is no love lost between the governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai and the Senator representing Kaduna Central, Shehu Sani. APC is fractured in the state between loyalists of the two heavyweights. The latter has been very critical of the APC government at the centre and in the state. He it is who chaired the Senate Committee that unraveled the misuse of public funds under the Presidential Initiative for the North East (PINE), culminating in the infamous N250m grass cutting contract and more. He also clamped down on the Federal Government’s anti-corruption crusade, noting how government sprays harmless and ineffective deodorant on any APC person smelling of corruption, while the same government applies a harmful and effective insecticide if the a member of the opposition party is involved.
Bitter clashes have ensued between supporters and loyalists of Governor el-Rufai and Senator Sani. Events in Kaduna are expected to determine how the land lies in the zone politically in 2019.
Sule Lamido
Immediate past governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, has been a presidential hopeful on the platform of PDP. He is said to be a beloved godson of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and one politician who is known throughout the country. He surely is a big voice in the PDP as one of the founding members of the party. However, he has had a running battle with the EFCC, along with his sons, over alleged misappropriation of public funds. That case will determine whether his political move in 2019.
Others leading lights in the zone include the governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal; Sani Yerima of Zamfara State; Senator Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna; Ibrahim Shekarau, Kano; Sambo Nnamadi, Kaduna and many more.
South-West
After the North-West zone, the South-West with the second highest number of votes comes to the fore as the hotbed of high-wire politics in the country. Except in Ekiti State, Buhari won five states in the zone, with Oyo State giving him in excess of 500, 000 votes, the highest in the entire southern part of the country. As far as the APC family is concerned in the zone, there are those who have been labeled the ‘President’s men’ and the Jargaban men.
It is equally a similar scenario for the opposition PDP which controls only one out of the six states in the region, where there are ‘the Paul and the Apollo’ groups in many state chapters.
By virtue of APC being the dominant party in the South-West and given his role in the enthronement of Buhari as president, Senator Bola Tinubu, a leader in the party, is numero uno among those to watch as 2019 elections draw nearer.
Many believe Tinubu has been treated as an outsider in the party he sweated to put together with others. There was a test of might between Tinubu and the Abuja boys in the Ondo State governorship election, with the latter clinching a sweet victory.
Tinubu and other came down hard on the party chair, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun for ‘killing’ internal democracy in the process leading to the emergence of the party’s standard bearer in the Ondo election. The relationship between Tinubu and Abuja waxed further cold until Atiku dumped the APC for PDP and Tinubu almost became the president’s man Friday, jetting out with him on trips.
Observers, however, opine that with statement by Tinubu that the presidential ticket is open and that the governors cannot lord their choice on the party, it remains to be seen if he will be disposed to working for Buhari’s emergence.
There are those who think Tinubu may agree to work for Buhari but may ask if the president is ready to sacrifice his boys.
Obasanjo
Despite his declaring to play the role of a statesman and father to all, former President Olusegun Obasanjo is a factor in not just South-West but also national politics. Apart from the Tinubu men and the PDP group, the third main group in the zone is the group of OBJ’s loyalists who even sometimes intersect the two parties.
Obasanjo backed Buhari and openly worked against the re-election of Jonathan. But observers noted the fact that it was not until towards the twilight of 2017 that some of his loyalists got patronage from the Buhari government. According to them, Obasanjo might be cold in throwing his weight behind Buhari again, with reports linking him with Dankwambo of Gombe.
Fayose
Seen as the only thorn in the flesh by the APC government, Ekiti State governor is undoubtedly a man to watch in 2018 and the 2019 elections. First, his state will attract national focus as he faces the most critical election for him. He is hoping to install a successor amidst opposition from APC and scuffle from the PDP house in the state.
Fayose is also going to shape the direction of presidential politics, at least as far as who gets the ticket in the PDP where he is the chairman of the governors elected on the party’s platform is concerned. Fayose is said to be backing Gombe State governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, whom he is also speculated to be wishing to pair with as his running mate.
Former governors of Oyo State, Rashidi Ladoja, Adebayo Alao-Akala; Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Senator Iyiola Omisore from Osun; Dr Olusegun Mimiko from Ondo State will all play roles in the zone too.
Osinbajo, Amosun, Fashola, Fayemi
Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo will surely play a role as scheming for 2019 is revved up in the zone. He is closely connected to Tinubu and report of the former Lagos State governor angling to replace him on the ticket was punctured by Tinubu himself who declared that he nursed no such ambition.
Ogun State governor, Ibikunle Amosun, who is arguably the closest to the president from the zone, is a man many turn to get a glimpse of Buhari’s body language. Amosun is said to have influenced a large number of appointees of federal board jobs in the zone. In fact, the development is said to have angered one of his colleagues who called him to register his displeasure over how some names featured in the list.
Fashola and Fayemi complete the list of Buhari’s men in the zone. The quartet of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, Amosun, Fashola and Fayemi are being positioned as the new face of “progressive leadership” in the South-West for APC. Mallam el-Rufai is said to be in the vanguard of the campaign for change in the face of leadership across the zones. Can the young Turks depose the oldies? Time will tell.
The North-West and the South-West zones will largely determine where the pendulum will swing in 2019 and actors are not ignoring these zones. Whichever party get the majority of votes in the two zones can boast of forming the Presidency next year. For many in the zones, it is going to be a clash of titans and the major part of that clash will take place in 2018.
and then