The conduct of Nigeria’s 2023 polls imposed significant political and economic costs on the nation as a result of voter suppression, elections technologies and violence, which in the end also undermined voters’ confidence in the exercise, a new report by political analysts at public policy think-tank, Nextier, has revealed.
In a report titled ‘Political Economy of Elections in Nigeria: Costs and Benefits’ released by Nextier at the weekend, the policy experts, however, acknowledged that despite the hiccups, the polls offered more Nigerians, especially the younger ones, the opportunity to perform the important civil duty of voting.
The report was prepared after a study conducted by Dr Chukwuma Okoli, an Associate Consultant at Nextier and a Lecturer at the Department of Political Science at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria; and Dr Ndu Nwokolo, who is a partner at Nextier and Honorary Research at the School of Government and Society, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom.
They particularly urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to enhance transparency in the electoral system by ensuring the proper application of election technologies deployed for elections.
According to them “the more credible the elections, the more the benefits and vice versa”, but “Nigeria’s 2023 elections imposed significant political and economic costs because of challenges associated with election technologies, voter suppression and violence undermining voters’ confidence in the system.
“The postponement of the governorship election also imposed severe economic costs on the nation. However, the opportunity provided new voters, particularly young people, to vote and contest elections.
“The political space expansion that saw the electoral contest’s transition from the traditional two-horse race to a four-horse race is some of the political benefits of the elections.”
The duo posited that in order to consolidate Nigeria’s democracy, “there is a need to review the gaps identified in the 2023 elections to enhance the gains and mitigate the costs of future elections in Nigeria.
“INEC should review observer reports and implement reforms. INEC and other election stakeholders, such as the security agencies, must always review pre-election risk assessments conducted by reputable organisations and act on the findings.
“The judiciary must demonstrate independence in addressing all election matters in line with extant laws.
“There is a need to strengthen the capacity of the security agencies to provide security for voters, contestants, election staff and materials.”
According to the report: “The 2023 election has remarkable political and economic benefits as well as costs for Nigeria. Politically, the EMB was able to enhance the electoral process by developing and deploying cutting-edge election technologies – the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) – in the conduct of the elections.
“The introduction of these election technologies was able to inspire confidence in voters, particularly in the pre-election phase.
“Moreover, the election afforded the opportunity for many first-time voters, especially young people who turned eighteen years within the last four years, to participate in the electoral process by registering and voting in the elections.
“In all, an additional 9,518,188 million people were added to the voter register, with young people aged 18-34 years accounting for 76.5 per cent of the newly registered voters.
“The election also allowed young people to take advantage of the age reduction bill passed in 2018 to contest election into public offices.
“The transition of Nigeria’s electoral contest from the traditional two-horse race to a four-horse race signifies an expansion of the political space and availability of alternatives from which the voters could choose. This has been made possible by the periodic conduct of elections.
“Despite the political benefits, the 2023 elections threw up certain political costs. First is the diminished trust in the electoral system by some voters due to challenges connected to the application of the much-vaunted election technologies.
“There were reports that voting was delayed in some polling units because of challenges with the BVAS. INEC has also been criticised in some quarters for delays in uploading some election results on the IReV.
“These technological challenges raised suspicion in some quarters as to the integrity of the process and even triggered protests in some locations.
“Secondly, the reported incidences of voter suppression and violence threatened national cohesion and integration in Nigeria.
“Elections also impose economic costs on the nation. INEC budgeted ₦305 billion for the conduct of the 2023 election, with the cost per voter estimated at $5.39.
“The 2023 budget is a 61.37% increase over the ₦189.2 billion spent for conducting the 2019 general election. The high number of litigations associated with elections in Nigeria also imposes an economic cost on contestants, political parties, and the country in general. The Commission also budgeted over ₦3 billion for the prosecution of lawsuits arising from the conduct of the 2023 elections.”
“Further, the postponement of the 2023 gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections had serious economic costs on the nation. The cost of postponement during the 2019 elections was $2.23 billion. This figure is expected to be higher in 2023 due to rising inflation. Elections also impact the capital market because of uncertainties, which sometimes lower investors’ appetite and may cause them to exit the market pending the outcome of elections.
“The 2023 general election showed an interesting scenario in which the participation of foreign investors in the capital market slowed, but the domestic investors’ confidence increased as they filled the investment gap left by foreign investors.
“Bloomberg explained that the Nigerian bonds posted some best gains as the APC presidential candidate took an early lead in the presidential result tally.
“The dynamics of the capital market suggest that transition elections and elections that bring alternation in power tend to impact more negatively on the capital market because of uncertainty over the policy direction of the new leadership.
“Despite the economic costs of the election, a successful transition to civilian administration will boost investor confidence and Nigeria’s economic relations with the international community.”
READ ALSO FROM NIGERIAN TRIBUNE
and then