UPDATED: Nigeria’s GDP expands by 4.23% in Q2 2025 as oil industry drive growth

Nigeria’s economy recorded a growth rate of 4.23 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025, according to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Aggregate nominal GDP stood at ₦100.73 trillion, reflecting a 19.23 per cent increase from ₦84.48 trillion in Q2 2024.

The growth marks an improvement over the 3.48 per cent posted in the same period of 2024, buoyed by a rebound in oil production and stronger industrial output. 

Analysts say the performance could boost fiscal revenues but also leaves the economy exposed to external oil market volatility.

The NBS explained that the figures follow the rebasing of GDP using 2019 as the new base year, aligning quarterly data with updated benchmarks.

Agriculture grew by 2.82 per cent, higher than the 2.60 per cent recorded in Q2 2024, while the industry sector was a key driver, expanding by 7.45 per cent from 3.72 per cent last year, and services grew by 3.94 per cent compared to 3.83 per cent in Q2 2024.

Industry contributed 17.31 per cent to aggregate GDP, up from 16.79 per cent in the same quarter of 2024. 

The NBS said the oil sector recorded a sharp recovery, expanding by 20.46 per cent year-on-year compared to 10.08 per cent in Q2 2024. 

Average daily crude production rose to 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd), up from 1.41 mbpd a year earlier and 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025. 

Oil contributed 4.05 per cent to real GDP in the quarter, up from 3.51 per cent in Q2 2024.

According to the NBS, the non-oil sector grew by 3.64 per cent, supported by agriculture (crop production), telecommunications, real estate, financial institutions, trade, construction, and electricity supply. 

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The NBS data highlights sustained economic momentum in Nigeria, one of Africa’s largest economy, underpinned by higher oil production and resilient non-oil sector activity.

Despite its slower pace relative to the oil sector, it remained the backbone of the economy, contributing 95.95 per cent of GDP in Q2 2025, though slightly lower than the 96.49 per cent share recorded in Q2 2024.

Economists note that while the oil rebound strengthens Nigeria’s fiscal position, reliance on crude oil still poses risks given global price swings and production uncertainties. 

Sustaining reforms to unlock non-oil growth, particularly in services and manufacturing, is seen as critical to consolidating gains and reducing vulnerability to external shocks.

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