Tough options before Osun ex-gov, Rauf Aregbesola

By Saheed Alayo

I recently watched a video of Mr. Rauf Aregbesola’s 68th birthday celebration, where his wife gently cautioned him as he attempted to join the dancers. That moment struck a chord. A woman of virtue, Mrs. Aregbesola, commands the respect of millions. In this critical phase of his life, Ogbeni is indeed fortunate to have a wife who doubles as a mother figure — steady, watchful, and wise.

Why was she so concerned? Why did she go as far as directly asking Alhaji Moshood Adeoti—who was singing at the time—to stop? What was running through the mind of this loyal and perceptive wife?

Mrs. Aregbesola’s worry is not misplaced. Her husband stands on the cusp of a political decision with grave consequences. He is being goaded into fighting two major political battles—one at home in Osun and another on the national front. The moment of reckoning is fast approaching.

But the pressing question remains: in whose interest is this political war to be fought? Let’s be clear—Ogbeni has had his time in the sun, from his days as a commissioner to his tenure as governor and later as a minister. This looming battle is not truly his. It is being orchestrated by political actors who feed his ego while seeking to use him to advance their own agendas. His wife sees through the charade. This is not Ogbeni’s personal war.

To understand the full picture, it’s important to highlight what Ogbeni may not see. His political rehabilitation in Osun is largely owed to his alignment with the Adeleke administration. Governor Ademola Adeleke and his team ensured that Aregbesola was accorded the recognition denied him by his immediate successor. The current administration completed several abandoned projects from Ogbeni’s tenure, refrained from public criticism over the half-salary scandal, and maintained cordial relations despite relentless attacks from Osun Defender, a newspaper owned by Mr. Aregbesola. This quiet rehabilitation may have obscured from Ogbeni the extent of public resentment against him. Many Osun citizens are still angry over the debt burden he placed on the state and his mismanagement of labour relations. Adeleke’s team has faced internal pressure to stop shielding Aregbesola, with accusations that more than half of the challenges pinned on former Governor Gboyega Oyetola actually trace back to Aregbesola’s administration.

Making matters worse, the Adeleke administration’s success in delivering infrastructure and prioritizing workers’ welfare—all without borrowing—has thrown Aregbesola’s legacy into stark contrast. The people now see that development doesn’t necessarily mean debt, and this has fueled deeper frustration toward Ogbeni’s eight-year tenure.

Unfortunately, Ogbeni seems unable or unwilling to confront these truths. He continues to be surrounded by sycophants who inflate his image, praising him as the greatest in Osun’s history. His absence from official state events since 2022, his failure to curb the attacks from his media outfit, and his recent public jabs at the Adeleke government all signal a growing hostility. It appears Ogbeni is gearing up for a political confrontation against the very government that extended him an olive branch.

But the greater danger lies not in the Osun front—it is the second, more perilous war: a confrontation with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Ogbeni has begun to signal his dissent, notably by hosting former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and through other veiled anti-Tinubu gestures. This is a high-stakes gamble, and one that carries significantly more risk for Ogbeni than for the occupant of Aso Rock. Perhaps this is why Mrs. Aregbesola felt compelled to act publicly—to urge caution before her husband walks into a storm. Even his son, Kabiru Aregbesola, may not support this new trajectory.

Across Yorubaland, many believe Ogbeni is handling his rift with President Tinubu poorly. God has blessed Aregbesola richly. At this stage of his life, wisdom dictates restraint. Other former governors—Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and Kayode Fayemi—all had their own differences with Tinubu, but none chose a path of open confrontation. Is Ogbeni claiming to be wiser than them?

There’s a Yoruba proverb that says “Maja masa,” meaning “choose your battles wisely.” Standing before a moving train, no matter how defiant one feels, is folly. If federal power is turned against Ogbeni, his followers will disappear. These praise singers do not love him; they love the access and influence he provides.

Can Ogbeni win these two wars?

I cannot say. What is certain, however, is that Mrs. Aregbesola holds a key role at this critical moment. She must help her husband steer clear of unnecessary conflict. The Tinubu of today is not the same Bourdillon strategist of old—he is now the President, commanding the full weight of federal authority. One hostile glance from Aso Rock could dismantle the fragile structure of loyalty that currently surrounds the former governor.

And who, really, are these so-called political heavyweights backing Ogbeni? Is he blind to the fact that new roads, health centers, and infrastructure are springing up across Osun—including in Ilesa and Iwo? Osun people are more discerning now.

If Aregbesola proceeds as planned, engaging both the Adelekes and the Tinubu camp, how does he intend to survive on two hostile fronts? The home front, if Adeleke’s patience wears thin. And the federal front, if Bourdillon’s long knives come out.

Mrs. Aregbesola, your work is not done. Save your husband from those who cheer him toward ruin. They do not serve his interest. They serve their own.

Saheed Alayo wrote from Ilesa, Osun State

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