NBS set to release Nigeria’s rebased GDP as investor confidence returns

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, expected to provide a more accurate reflection of the nation’s economy and potentially boost investor confidence—signaling renewed optimism in the country’s economic outlook.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Article IV consultation report, projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.4 percent in 2025, driven by gains from key economic reforms and stronger investor confidence.

“This rebasing allows us to better reflect the realities of our economy,”
said Adeyemi Adeniran, Nigeria’s Statistician-General, during a workshop in Abuja.
“It’s not just about a bigger number, but about accurate, timely data that supports smarter policy and economic planning.”

The update will incorporate key sectors such as digital services, fintech, modular refineries, health insurance, and the marine economy—industries that now play significant roles in Nigeria’s output but remain underrepresented in current GDP calculations.

According to the NBS, this improved accuracy will offer policymakers, investors, and international partners a clearer and more reliable snapshot of the country’s economic health.

This long-awaited recalibration is expected to significantly expand the official size of Africa’s most populous nation’s economy—potentially returning Nigeria to the top spot as the continent’s largest economy. More than a statistical adjustment, the rebasing aims to restore economic credibility, attract new foreign direct investment (FDI), and unlock new pathways for sustainable growth.

Once ranked Africa’s largest economy following the 2014 rebasing exercise, Nigeria has since slipped to fourth place due to exchange rate volatility, macroeconomic instability, and structural bottlenecks. However, with the planned shift in the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, experts believe the country is well-positioned for a strong comeback. The new figures will better capture the transformation Nigeria’s economy has undergone over the past decade, especially with the rise of emerging industries.

Rebasing a nation’s GDP is more than a technical exercise—it is a strategic economic tool. For Nigeria, the 2025 rebasing presents an opportunity to reset public perception, reframe investment narratives, and recalibrate fiscal planning.

A recent study by Proshare Nigeria suggests that the rebased GDP could hover around $490 billion, significantly higher than current estimates. While this does not translate directly into new revenue, it improves key economic metrics such as the debt-to-GDP ratio, closely monitored by investors and credit agencies. A stronger balance sheet will enhance Nigeria’s creditworthiness and create a more favorable environment for foreign capital inflows.

“When we talk to investors, they’re happy,”
said Axel Schimmelpfennig, the IMF’s mission chief for Nigeria.
“They can invest in Nigeria and know they can repatriate proceeds. It’s a big improvement.”

Global investors and development institutions are watching Nigeria’s rebasing efforts closely. A larger, more diversified economy signals a stable macroeconomic framework and enhances confidence in the country’s long-term investment prospects.

“Nigeria has transformed into an investor’s haven,”
said Udy Ntia, Executive Vice President of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd.,
during the CERAWeek conference in Houston.
“With the Petroleum Industry Act and robust regulatory reforms, we’ve already attracted $17 billion in new investments.”

This renewed interest is reminiscent of the post-rebasing surge in 2014, when Nigeria’s economy jumped from $270 billion to $510 billion, becoming the continent’s largest. That recalibration revealed the true scale of industries like telecommunications, Nollywood, and financial services—leading to a spike in foreign investment that neared $60 billion by year’s end.

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Today, the digital economy is expected to play a starring role in the upcoming GDP figures. Financial technology, ride-hailing services, blockchain platforms, and online commerce have become deeply integrated into Nigeria’s economic fabric. These sectors are driving job creation, supporting small businesses, and delivering scalable solutions to millions.

“The rebasing must reflect the changes brought about by public policies over time,”
said Seun Onigbinde, Director of BudgIT, a civic tech organization.
“When these new realities are captured in data, we can start to build stronger policies and drive smarter investments.”

Beyond investor interest, the benefits of GDP rebasing extend deeply into domestic policy and planning. Updated economic data empowers government agencies to design targeted social programs, allocate resources efficiently, and monitor reform outcomes more precisely.

“Budgeting without current data is like guessing in the dark,”
said Gabriel Okeowo, Country Director of BudgIT.
“Rebasing allows planners to be more intentional about solving Nigeria’s biggest problems—poverty, infrastructure gaps, and job creation.”

For example, accurate sectoral data can show how much each industry contributes to GDP, enabling tax authorities to improve revenue collection strategies. Similarly, social welfare programs can be better aligned with the actual distribution of income, employment, and consumption patterns across regions.

Moreover, with inflation hovering around 23 percent and oil prices below budget projections, policymakers see the rebasing as a way to reframe fiscal expectations and conduct more credible debt sustainability assessments.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the revised GDP data will support “more precise fiscal and monetary policy, improve global comparability, and build investor confidence.”

While optimism is high, experts caution that GDP rebasing alone will not improve living standards. It must be paired with bold policy reforms that create jobs, expand infrastructure, and catalyze private sector growth.

“We must acknowledge that genuine economic growth extends beyond statistical adjustments,”
said Zainab Suleiman Okino, a public affairs analyst.
“For ordinary Nigerians to experience meaningful change, the government must address deeper structural issues—security, energy, agriculture, and the ease of doing business.”

Indeed, Nigeria faces formidable challenges—from recurring insecurity in rural areas to inadequate infrastructure and overdependence on oil exports. Achieving inclusive growth will require more than a data update. The Tinubu administration has promised wide-ranging reforms to boost manufacturing, support entrepreneurship, and strengthen public institutions.

Still, the rebasing marks a pivotal first step. For the first time in over a decade, stakeholders will gain access to a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economic engine—encompassing both the formal and informal sectors, as well as traditional and emerging industries.

“This isn’t just about growth,”
Adeniran concluded.
“It’s about clarity. And with clarity comes opportunity.”

As Nigeria prepares to unveil its rebased GDP in the third quarter of 2025, the country stands at a critical juncture. More than a recalculated statistic, the rebasing represents a renewed commitment to transparency, accountability, and economic resilience. It sends a strong signal to investors, global markets, and citizens alike that Nigeria is serious about unlocking its full potential.

By embracing data-driven planning, fostering innovation in high-growth sectors, and creating an enabling environment for investment, Nigeria is not only aiming to reclaim its top spot in Africa—it is writing a new chapter in its economic story. And this time, the numbers will speak louder than ever.

NIGERIAN TRIBUNE